[USGS] The largest earthquake that has occurred, as of this release, is a magnitude 4.6 at 8:56 AM PDT on August 10. This earthquake and the associated swarm are located approximately 8 miles from the southern end of the San Andreas Fault. This area has also seen swarms in the past — most recently, in 2001, 2009, and 2016. Past swarms have remained active for 1 to 20 days, with an average duration of about a week.
During this earthquake swarm, the probability of larger earthquakes in this region is significantly greater than usual. The southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault is capable of rupturing in large magnitude earthquakes (magnitude 7+), but the last earthquake that strong was more than 300 years ago. In a typical week, there is approximately a 1 in 10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the southernmost San Andreas Fault. That probability is significantly elevated while swarm activity remains high.
The following three scenarios describe possibilities of what could happen from 10 August to 18 August. Only one of these scenarios will occur within the next week. These scenarios include the possibility of earthquakes on and off the San Andreas Fault.
Scenario One (Most likely, about 80% chance): Earthquakes continue but none will be larger than magnitude 5.4 within the next 7 days.
The most likely scenario is that the rate of earthquakes in the swarm will decrease over the next 7 days. Some moderately sized earthquakes may occur (magnitude in the range M4.5-M5.4), which could cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M3.0+) may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (Less likely, about 19% chance): A larger earthquake (magnitude 5.5 to 6.9) could occur within the next 7 days.
A less likely scenario is a somewhat larger earthquake (up to a M6.9). Earthquakes of this size could cause damage around the Salton Sea area and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.
Scenario Three (Least Likely, approximately 1% chance): A much larger earthquake (magnitude 7 or higher) could occur within the next 7 days.
A much less likely scenario, compared with the previous two scenarios, is that the ongoing swarm could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M4.6 that occurred on the 10 August (i.e., M7.0 and above). While this is a very small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.
#1
The Salton Sea is a scary toilet. It was once supposed to be the Riviera of the California desert.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
08/11/2020 6:28 Comments ||
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#2
Salton Sea is indeed a dump. It was not a natural creation - coming from a breach in the Colorado River levees, fed by the "New River" - sewage/chemical drainage from Mexico
Posted by: Frank G ||
08/11/2020 7:26 Comments ||
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#3
It was a really nice place when I was there as a kid in the '50s, MM.
Drove through there about 10 years ago and both you and Frank are being nice about it.
Posted by: Mullah Richard ||
08/11/2020 7:54 Comments ||
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#4
Apparently Gaia is in agreement with comments 1-3.
#5
In the other side of the country, there was a 5.1 magnitude earthquake early Sunday morning centered around Sparta, NC. It was the biggest since 1916. 5.1 magnitude earthquake. It was fairly shallow in origin.
#8
Bombay Beach is a 50s post apocolyptic museum. Do stop by the Ski Inn for a decent cheeseburger and cool beverage. It's also at the lowest elevation of any bar in N America.
Posted by: Rex Mundi ||
08/11/2020 12:00 Comments ||
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#9
I've heard the theory that at one time the Gulf of California extended north to include what we now know as the Salton Sea. From what I've heard, it used to boast excellent fishing and was a swinging hot spot of a resort. Like most of California, it is subject to seismic activity.
From https://www.fws.gov/refuge/Sonny_Bono_Salton_Sea/about.html... The courses of the New and Alamo Rivers run through the Refuge, providing fresher water to the Salton Sea. However, because the Sea has no outlet, the salt content of the water has increased steadily over time. Due to agricultural runoff and rise in the level of the Salton Sea, most of the original Refuge area has been covered completely by the salty lake. At present, only about 2,000 acres are farmed and managed for wetlands. Rye grass is grown on the Refuge as food for wintering geese in the area. However, as farming practices have changed, less water is being used on neighboring crops and therefore runoff into the Salton Sea has decreased over time, lowering the shoreline and further increasing salt content. In 1998, the Refuge was renamed after Congressman Sonny Bono, who helped inform the U.S. Congress of the environmental issues facing the Salton Sea as well as acquiring funding for this Refuge to help it respond to avian disease outbreaks and other habitat challenges at the Salton Sea.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
08/11/2020 12:29 Comments ||
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#10
^ A subject of much discussion due to the repeated claims of a Spanish shipwreck in that region that is exposed from time to time by the winds. That search continues.
Posted by: Rex Mundi ||
08/11/2020 15:36 Comments ||
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[Substack.com] Here in the United States, we have become inundated with tales of COVID-19 doom and gloom. In America, the mainstream narrative is rife with hopelessness. We are told that there is simply no way to stop this virus without repetitive lockdowns, healthy quarantine, even of asymptomatic individuals, and universal mask mandates. And even with all of those extreme policy measures put in place, the politicians and public health officials tell us that we will have to wait for a vaccine for the country to even think about our "new normal" following the COVID-19 pandemic.
There’s one country that they don’t seem to want to talk about - Sweden. And for good reason. Sweden debunks the hysteria. Sweden shows how unnecessary all of the interventions to "fight" the virus are. Sweden shows us that a rational, evidence-based approach to the pandemic is now thriving.
#6
No doubt it was released from China. The "we'll just add in a little more heart disease here, a little more hair loss there," is for the weak minded.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
08/11/2020 7:08 Comments ||
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#8
Except for those with "Excel derived" immunity.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
08/11/2020 8:59 Comments ||
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#9
A bioweapon remains a possibility until it is conclusively to not be a bioweapon. That's how possibilities and theories work (especially when we know so little about the origins of something). That doesn't mean it necessarily is one. Just that we can't eliminate the theory as a possibility.
#10
The biggest problem is that the Media and Politicians lie about the virus to promote various agendas. The best way to defeat the virus it to get rid of the Media and the Politicians.
#11
Well it's lucky Sweden got it out the way quickly rather than drag it on and evade herd immunity as the rest of the west has disastrously done, while also killing more by a) shutting down non-covid treatment and b) shutting the economy.
#12
I wonder why all the "covid-sceptics" always site Sweeeeeden as a glorious example of herd immunity, but none cites Brasil - which has also forgone lockdown?
#13
Herd immunity or not, countries waited way to long to start the lockdown. COVID is now just like the flu and will be with us for a very long time. Open up, let it burn through because you can't contain it.
#16
Brazil is right behind the US, in deaths per capital, but ahead of Sweden, France, Italy, Spain, U.K., and Belgium. Riddle me that.
Posted by: Bobby ||
08/11/2020 11:29 Comments ||
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#17
I think it was about three months ago we decided that Sweden's die was cast.
Sweden's die was cast long before Xi's gift. The reason they had a relatively low number of casualties (only 10 times of their neighbors) is because they already practice distancing. For example, 40% of Swedish households are single person.
They're simply dying out - replaced by immigrants.
#19
grom, you do realize Brazil is pretty much a shithole. Might be why they have so many cases because of the nastiness of the slums.
Posted by: Chris ||
08/11/2020 12:39 Comments ||
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#20
#5, no. The theory that covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon has not been debunked. The CCP is innocent until proven guilty but their behavior is undeniably suspicious.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
08/11/2020 12:42 Comments ||
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#21
#19. (a) Actually, slum dwellers have better immune systems than you (or I). Google gnotobiotic.
(b) Indian slums are not much different from Brazilian - but the two countries have very different covid stats. Hint, it's not due to HCQ, as Brazil adopted it enthusiastically.
#22
The lockdown was a mistake. Now government is doubling down rather than admit it was wrong. So when an actual pandemic comes along with a virus that really is scary, no one will believe government. It'll be much worse than it needed to be.
TownHall
Texas — Last week, a hearse carrying the body of U.S. Border Patrol Agent Marco A. Gonzales slowly wound its way south from the Central Texas hospital where he died of Covid-19, through small towns along the way where mourners lining the roads saluted their last respects. Gonzales, to be buried in the small border city of Del Rio where he worked, was one of at least three front-line Border Patrol agents in Texas to have died of Covid in recent weeks.
There was 20-year veteran Agent Enrique J. Rositas in McAllen and also Agent Agustin Aguilar of Eagle Pass, who will be buried this coming weekend.
Their bodies, burials, and mourning wives and children offer powerful rebuke to a recalcitrant national media and state and federal office-holders who have largely refused to acknowledge a dangerous ongoing development in the Covid-19 pandemic life cycle: their fates reflect that a significant percentage of the current hospitalization spikes in the border states of California, Arizona, and Texas are due to a kaleidoscope of legal and illegal border crossings by Covid-sick patients seeking U.S. treatment.
#1
Border crossing migrants have always been disease carrying vermin.
Nothing changes.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
08/11/2020 9:07 Comments ||
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#2
Border counties have twice the infection rate of the rest of Texas and three times the fatality rate - not sure if the fatalities are all reported back to the initial county but I doubt it.
[PJ] OAKMONT, Pennsylvania — Long before you find yourself standing in front of the Smoke N’ Guns shop, the delicate aroma of coffee beans and hand-rolled cigars beckons your senses as you walk along Allegheny River Boulevard.
Outside the shop, four black leather chairs spread a respectable 6 feet apart are waiting for either the overflow of customers or locals such as Marcello Frollo to hold court. He enjoys a rolled cigar along with his double espresso as he listens to the cars rumble along the brick-lined street.
Inside, the store is a visual delight, with a coffee bar and a handful of tables and chairs at the entrance. Boxes filled with the best cigars money can buy are stacked high, and an impressive walk-in humidor is designed to keep them preserved at the perfect temperature.
In the back, a balcony overlooks the rest of the store and spans its entire width. A glass display case with an array of long guns hangs along the wall. In the center, begging to be held, is a Tommy gun. Gregory "Gooch" Ionadi, the owner, waits to help you find the gun you need or want to protect yourself.
#1
The economy is even more distorted than usual, but that's on the distorters, not the economy.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
08/11/2020 5:16 Comments ||
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#2
Well, my wife who refused to allow a gun in the house when we had kids decided this year that we'll be careful around the grandkids and she wanted something in tune with the times.
Bought her a S&W M&P .380 Shield for her B'day.
Now we'll work on proficiency.
[Breitbart] American businesses hired workers at a blistering pace in June, data from the Labor Department showed Monday.
U.S. employers hired 6.7 million workers in the month, the second-highest monthly total in records going back to 2000, according to the Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary or JOLTS report. The highest total was hit in May, when businesses hired 7.2 million workers.
Job openings rose 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted 5.9 million, beating economist expectations. Despite the rise, openings remain well below the pre-pandemic level of about 7 million.
Job openings moved much higher during President Trump’s first year in office. Openings had stagnated in 2015, rarely rising about the 6 million mark and making little progress over time. Between December of 2016 and July, openings rose by over 1 million and had not fallen below 7 million until December 2019.
Manufacturers hired 441,000 workers in June, down from 523,000 in May but above the year-ago level of 326,000. Durable goods makers hired 268,000 in the month, down a bit from 286,000 in May. Job openings rose to 336,000, up from May but below the pre-pandemic level.
#1
The "shut down the economy to get Trump" game was mis-timed. Hence the current "it's (COVID) only getting worse" drumbeat from the press.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
08/11/2020 5:19 Comments ||
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#2
They need a second wave to coincide with the election.
Most of the comments on MSM COVID articles that allow comments are highlighting the lack of danger from COVID and the recklessness of the government over-response.
They need to admit they over-reacted and get on with protecting vulnerable while letting the near zero risk (99.5%) get on with it.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[USGS] The largest earthquake that has occurred, as of this release, is a magnitude 4.6 at 8:56 AM PDT on August 10. This earthquake and the associated swarm are located approximately 8 miles from the southern end of the San Andreas Fault. This area has also seen swarms in the past — most recently, in 2001, 2009, and 2016. Past swarms have remained active for 1 to 20 days, with an average duration of about a week. 
