Hi there, !
Today Sat 03/21/2020 Fri 03/20/2020 Thu 03/19/2020 Wed 03/18/2020 Tue 03/17/2020 Mon 03/16/2020 Sun 03/15/2020 Archives
492937 articles and 1740078 comments are archived on Rantburg.

Today: 86 articles and 281 comments as of 22:45.
Post a news link    Post your own article   
Area: WoT Operations    Non-WoT    Opinion        Politix   
Manchester Arena bombing: Hashem Abedi guilty of 22 murders
Today's Headlines
Headline Comments [Views]
Page 2: WoT Background
0 [6501] 
0 [6530] 
0 [6653] 
0 [6523] 
0 [6502] 
1 17:36 Woodrow [6494] 
0 [6496] 
19 17:53 gorb [6563] 
1 14:17 Skidmark [6507] 
2 21:16 Unosh Hupinelet8756 [6550] 
5 12:44 SteveS [6515] 
6 14:20 Skidmark [6544] 
1 14:21 Skidmark [6506] 
1 11:56 magpie [6504] 
0 [6509] 
1 09:43 Frank G [6489] 
11 16:47 swksvolFF [6516] 
Page 1: WoT Operations
9 23:41 Whiskey Mike [6564]
0 [6493]
3 10:10 b [6554]
0 [6492]
0 [6508]
0 [6501]
0 [6514]
0 [6501]
0 [6506]
0 [6495]
0 [6495]
0 [6493]
0 [6515]
0 [6505]
2 00:35 magpie [6515]
0 [6494]
Page 3: Non-WoT
1 16:58 swksvolFF [6488]
1 16:30 DarthVader [6504]
7 16:54 swksvolFF [6492]
0 [6488]
6 18:33 Skidmark [6506]
0 [6490]
9 17:43 Woodrow [6486]
6 17:44 Woodrow [6495]
1 16:23 Lex [6508]
3 16:36 Seeking Cure For Ignorance [6510]
8 12:45 g(r)omgoru [6506]
0 [6511]
1 17:55 Woodrow [6509]
4 12:05 NoMoreBS [6504]
14 20:50 Frank G [6533]
1 17:53 Woodrow [6482]
10 09:59 JohnQC [6545]
2 03:39 g(r)omgoru [6498]
1 18:36 Skidmark [6493]
8 16:47 g(r)omgoru [6488]
2 12:43 Skidmark [6493]
10 18:51 charger [6545]
1 18:57 swksvolFF [6513]
0 [6487]
0 [6490]
1 14:40 Mullah Richard [6515]
5 17:47 Woodrow [6491]
12 21:06 European Conservative [6575]
7 14:12 Skidmark [6530]
2 21:44 Anomalous Sources [6535]
15 18:42 Skidmark [6536]
Page 4: Opinion
1 18:54 Lex [6504]
3 13:11 Iblis [6505]
0 [6484]
2 09:14 magpie [6510]
3 18:04 Anomalous Sources [6490]
3 18:40 ruprecht [6493]
1 18:00 Woodrow [6483]
7 18:49 Skidmark [6509]
1 06:38 Betty Hapsburg9571 [6490]
1 15:17 gorb [6489]
0 [6485]
0 [6486]
7 17:02 AlanC [6481]
0 [6481]
7 13:23 Procopius2k [6504]
4 18:01 Woodrow [6496]
13 21:35 CrazyFool [6524]
4 19:13 Lex [6505]
Page 6: Politix
7 20:50 Frank G [6525]
9 18:03 Woodrow [6507]
0 [6509]
8 09:35 Lex [6508]
Houthi commander vowed in a television interview to coerce all tribes in Yemen to fight alongside the Iran-backed militia
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6507 views] Top|| File under: Houthis

#1  fight alongside the #Iran-backed militia

Are they certified virus free?
Posted by: Skidmark || 03/18/2020 14:17 Comments || Top||

Manchester Arena bombing: Hashem Abedi guilty of 22 murders
[BBC] The brother of Manchester Arena bomber Salman Abedi has been found guilty of murdering 22 people.

Hashem Abedi had denied helping to plan the "sudden and lethal" blast which killed or injured "nearly 1,000".

The Old Bailey heard the pair worked together to source materials used in the suicide kaboom after an Ariana Grande show at the venue.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: trailing wife || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6653 views] Top|| File under: Islamic State

The Grand Turk
Erdogan discusses Syria, refugees with European leaders
[Al Jazeera] The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
's President His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
on Tuesday discussed the war in Syria's rebel enclave of Idlib, with the leaders of La Belle France, Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as the refugee crisis it has largely caused.

The four-party video conference that involved French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel
...chancellor of Germany and the impetus behind Germany's remarkably ill-starred immigration program. Merkel used to be referred to by Germans as Mom. Now they make faces at her for inundating the country with Moslem colonists...
, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
...pro-Brexit British prime minister, succeeding no-Brexit Theresa May. BoJo is noted as much for his sparkling personality and his hair as for his Conservative policies....
came after Turkey decided last month to reopen its border for refugees trying to reach Europe.
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6504 views] Top|| File under: Sublime Porte

#1  Danegeld...
Posted by: magpie || 03/18/2020 11:56 Comments || Top||

Turkey confirms first death from coronavirus
[PUBLISH.TWITTER] So much for the story about Turkish genes being proof against it.
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6489 views] Top|| File under: Sublime Porte

#1  I'm sure it was a Gulenist
Posted by: Frank G || 03/18/2020 9:43 Comments || Top||

Pakistani F-16 "Engaged" One Of The MH-47G Chinooks Three Times During Bin Laden Raid
[TheWarZone] These details come from a new interview that also says the Obama Administration tried at least twice to capture Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.

The flight lead during the raid that led to the death of Osama Bin Laden, who was piloting one of the MH-47G Chinooks employed in that operation, says that a Pakistani F-16 Viper fighter jet "engaged" his helicopter three separate times as he flew toward Afghanistan during the exfiltration phase of the mission. The now-retired U.S. Army officer also says he was involved personally in two attempts during the Obama Administration to capture Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Iraq. The Trump Administration decided to kill Soleimani, who had been head of Iran's Quds Force, in a drone strike in Baghdad in January.

Retired U.S. Army Chief Warrant Officer 5 Douglas Englen offered these and other previously unreported details about operations from throughout his career with the elite 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, also known as the Night Stalkers, in an exclusive interview with journalist and documentarian Alex Quade for Military Times, which is worth reading in its entirety. He only decided to share his personal memories after prompting from former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency Leon Panetta and retired U.S. Navy Admiral William McRaven, both of whom were heavily involved in the planning execution of the raid on Bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan in 2011, according to Quade.
Posted by: Woodrow || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6544 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan

#1  Very interesting. Potentially answers some of my long-held questions concerning the raid. Thanks for posting Woodrow.
Posted by: Besoeker || 03/18/2020 0:37 Comments || Top||

#2  I'm surprised any site that tries to cover the US military would refer to an NCO as an "officer".
Posted by: Rob Crawford || 03/18/2020 0:47 Comments || Top||

#3  ..well technically,

An American Commissioned Officer holds his/her rank by act of Congress.

An American Warrant Officer holds his/her rank by authority of the Secretary of the service.

An American Non-Commissioned Officer (NCO) holds his/her rank by the Secretary or lower authority*. *See - 'Acting' as in temporary

Many American NCOs have more actual authority than many officers in other armies.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 03/18/2020 9:43 Comments || Top||

#4  "engaged" Means what? Showing the boss that I'm on the ball? But forgot where the trigger is? The night stalker choppers even jam your cannon?
Flipped off?
Posted by: Richard Aubrey || 03/18/2020 11:47 Comments || Top||

#5  Probably ESM warned of radar tracking.
Posted by: Thorong Grundy1520 || 03/18/2020 12:08 Comments || Top||

#6  Watching the pretty lights

Posted by: Skidmark || 03/18/2020 14:20 Comments || Top||

Iraqi PM-designate will win confidence vote only if US-led troops’ withdrawal guaranteed: Fatah coalition
[PRESSTV] A powerful political coalition in Iraq’s parliament says it will give a vote of confidence to premier-designate Adnan Zurfi and support his efforts to form a government only if the 54-year-old politician and the ex-governor of the holy city of Najaf ensures the withdrawal of US-led forces from the country.

Karim Alaiwi, a politician from the Fatah (Conquest) alliance and a member of the Security and Defense Committee in the Iraqi legislature, told Arabic-language al-Maalomah news agency on Tuesday that Zurfi has a difficult path ahead of himself as he wants to pick the ministers.

Alaiwi emphasized that his political coalition and all allied factions will endorse the premier-designate provided that he ensures the exit of foreign troops, including American ones, from Iraq in the next government’s vision plan as demanded by parliamentary legislation passed earlier this year.

Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6530 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran Proxies

US troops aim to turn Iraq into a ‘battlefield,' Iraq tells UN
[RUDAW.NET] Iraq has warned the United Nations
...an organization conceived in the belief that we're just one big happy world, with the sort of results you'd expect from such nonsense...
Security Council that the recent attacks by US troops inside the country are a "hostile act" aiming to turn the country into a battlefield for regional conflicts.

Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent two letters of complaint to the Secretary General of the United Nations and the Security Council on Monday regarding the recent missile attacks by US warplanes on Iraqi forces.

The content of the letter was published by state-owned newspaper al-Sabaah on Tuesday.

"US attacks are a hostile act by US troops against Iraq’s state, government and people," the letter read. "Such an act by US is only aiming to turn Iraq into a battlefield for regional conflict,"

It added military operations inside Iraq without coordinating with Baghdad is a "provocative action".

US warplanes launched retaliatory strikes against weapon stores belonging to the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia in the early hours of Friday, in response to last Wednesday’s rocket attack on Iraq’s Taji military base, which killed two Americans and one Briton.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke with Iraqi caretaker Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi on Monday regarding last week’s attacks.

"America will not tolerate attacks and threats to American lives and will take additional action as necessary in self-defense," Pompeo told the Iraqi leader.

In a statement on Friday afternoon, Iraq’s Joint Operations Command said the Arclight airstrike
s "violated the principle of partnership and alliance between Iraqi security forces and the parties that planned and carried out this treacherous attack."

Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6523 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iraq

Iranians tour Babil province and people threaten to cut off highway if government does not take measures to prevent them
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6494 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iraq

#1  Because of the Wuhan?
Posted by: Woodrow || 03/18/2020 17:36 Comments || Top||

Adel Abdul-Mahdi receives Adnan Al-Zurfi, Iraq's new prime minister-designate, stressing his support for him in fulfilling his duties
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6496 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran Proxies

IDF says Hezbollah, Syrian army were behind Golan border attack
[IsraelTimes] The Israel Defense Forces says the Hezbollah terror group and Syrian army were behind an attempted sniper attack against Israeli soldiers on the Golan Heights earlier this month.

The military says Hezbollah fighters and Syrian soldiers were seen preparing to carry out the attack, filming the border with smartphones and professional cameras and measuring wind-speed ‐ steps that are often taken ahead of time to improve snipers’ accuracy.

"When there was an operational opportunity, the car being used by the cell was attacked by an IDF helicopter," the military says.

"The State of Israel sees sovereign Syria as responsible for all that happens in its territory," the IDF says.
Posted by: trailing wife || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6501 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Syria

Olde Tyme Religion
Closure of mosques in some countries is considered a ‘religious duty’ in light of the global #coronavirus pandemic, says Secretary-General of the Muslim World League
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6550 views] Top|| File under:

#1  This action could halt both plagues for awhile.
Posted by: JohnQC || 03/18/2020 8:09 Comments || Top||

#2  No school for a while.
Posted by: Unosh Hupinelet8756 || 03/18/2020 21:16 Comments || Top||

Former Syrian opposition leader: Groups that Turkey depends on are fake
[NPASYRIA] Ottoman Turkish forces in Idlib were surprised that a number of the members of the gangs that it depended on in their recent battle with Syrian government forces are "fake", according to what a former leader of the armed opposition said on Tuesday.

In an interview with North-Press, Muhammad Abu Abdullah, former leader in the Syrian opposition, said that Ottoman Turkish-backed gangs are groups use "fake" numbers.

Abu Abdullah said that The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...the occupiers of Greek Asia Minor...
was surprised by those groups on which it relied, such as the National Front for Liberation, as it found that the numbers of their members are on papers only, and the remaining groups utilized only a small percentage of their strength in the battle launched by Turkey on the first of this month, in anticipation of being eliminated by other groups, including ones backed by Turkey.

On the first of this month, Ottoman Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced a military operation against Syrian government forces in Idlib after the latter attacked the Ottoman Turkish forces and the affiliated gangs in Idlib on February 27.

On March 5, an agreement between the Russian and Ottoman Turkish presidents was reached in Moscow, which stipulated a ceasefire in Idlib and the start of Russian-Ottoman Turkish patrols on the M4 highway.

Regarding the protests on M4 highways, Abu Abdullah said that "they are run by the groups, and that they must demand people to go back to their homes and the [Syrian] regime forces must withdraw to Sochi borders."

Abu Abdullah pointed out that one of Sochi articles, which includes the dissolution of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
(HTS), was the main instigator for the protests that took place in Arihah.

He said that opening the highway and conducting the patrols means the implementation of Sochi Agreement points on the ground, the most prominent of which is the dissolution of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, "which the latter does not want," according to Abu Abdullah.

Observers see that the protests that took place in Arihah on the M4 highway to prevent Russian-Ottoman Turkish patrols determined by the agreement, was a reason for Russia to resume the military operations in Idlib.

In a statement issued on Sunday, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the first joint patrol with Turkey was conducted on a side of M4 highway in Idlib.

"Additional time has been given to the Ottoman Turkish side to take special procedures to neutralize "terrorist" formations and to ensure the security of joint patrols on the M4 highway," Russian Ministry of Defense said.

The statement noted that, "In order to carry out their provocations, the snuffies attempted to use civilians as human shields, including women and kiddies."

According to the agreement, the schedule of Russian-Ottoman Turkish patrols on M4 highway will continue for 15 days, as the first patrol took place on March 15.

According to Abu Abdullah, "if Syrian government forces and Iranian groups try to violate the ceasefire agreement, this will be in our favor, because they will be violating the orders of the Russians, and Turkey will put all its might into Idlib."

Dozens of residents of Idlib and armed opposition groups staged a protest on M4 highway, where they blocked the road by setting fire to tires in order to prevent the Russian-Ottoman Turkish joint patrol.

Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6502 views] Top|| File under: Sublime Porte

Iran holy man: ‘We are not followers of the World Health Organization. They are a bunch of infidels and Jews’
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6563 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran

#1  And don’t forget the WHO financer the ChicComs.
Posted by: Alaska Paul || 03/18/2020 0:31 Comments || Top||

#2  Jews aren't infidels?
Or is it infidels can't be Jewish?
Very confusing.
Posted by: Lex || 03/18/2020 2:19 Comments || Top||

#3  "We hate both kinds of music, country and western!"
Posted by: Oscar Bluetooth4930 || 03/18/2020 2:59 Comments || Top||

#4  They can still stand outside and lick the door knobs if its any comfort.
Posted by: Thomogum Omereng5658 || 03/18/2020 4:50 Comments || Top||

#5  and the fact that they're incompetent doesn't count?
Posted by: Mercutio || 03/18/2020 5:01 Comments || Top||

#6  Iranian president rejects criticism of coronavirus response
Posted by: Frank G || 03/18/2020 6:18 Comments || Top||

#7  die for Allan!
Posted by: Bob Grorong1136 || 03/18/2020 7:29 Comments || Top||

#8  The Iranian response to C19 gives the world an opportunity to observe the worst case scenario for the spread of the virus. We thank them and encourage them to continue.
Posted by: Vespasian Ebboting9735 || 03/18/2020 7:50 Comments || Top||

#9  TEHRAN — Iran reported its single biggest jump in deaths from the new coronavirus on Wednesday as another 147 people died, raising the country’s overall death toll to 1,135. The nearly 15% spike in deaths — amid a total of 17,361 confirmed cases in Iran — marks the biggest 24-hour rise in fatalities since officials first acknowledged cases of the virus in Iran in mid-February.

Vespasian suggests that this is the worst case scenario unfolding. OK, let's explore that worst case and see what it implies for us -- and ask ourselves whether our own leaders might just possibly be overreacting a teeny bit.

Let's assume that the one-day spike represents 1) accurate reporting and 2) not an anomaly and 3) a likely average daily death toll for the next 6 months. Note that this is unrealistic given that summer is approaching and with it, less air pollution and respiratory illness in heavily "inverted" mountain-ringed cities such as Tehran (Denver CO has the same problem) and less longevity for this virus in hot weather. No matter: assume 147 deaths per day on average for another 180 days: that gets you up to about 26,00 deaths plus the current tally of 1,135 = about 27,000 deaths in a country of 82 million.

More perspective: that's a little more than twice the number of people who die in traffic accidents in Iran every nine months. (Our friends at WHO helpfully report in annual traffic fatalities. WHO's 2016 traffic fatality report indicated that Iran lost 16,426 people to traffic accidents.)

But COVID fatalities, like those caused by the flu, are overwhelmingly concentrated in elderly people with ore-existing conditions. So the real impact of the worst-case COVID scenario on society is actually no worse than the impact of traffic fatalities.

Or a very bad flu season.

And this is your worst case. The US equivalent would be ~100,000 deaths.

Terrible, sure. But is it to be prevented at ANY cost? At the risk - or more like the certainty - of deliberately screwing our young people, yet AGAIN, by eliminating their chance at economic independence, at gaining a living and supporting a family, for a generation?


Is it worth destroying the livelihoods of the other 99.9 percent of the population because a few thousand unlucky elderly folks will die sooner than they otherwise would?

Does this make any f---ing sense?
Posted by: Lex || 03/18/2020 9:14 Comments || Top||

#10  Makes sense only if you would do anything to un-elect Donald Trump. Tank the economy and election is most likely very close.
Posted by: Alistaire Untervehr8459 || 03/18/2020 11:16 Comments || Top||

#11  This sounds like the kind of moral calculus that a self-described "ethicist" and nutjob like Ezekiel Emmanuel would come up with.
Posted by: Lex || 03/18/2020 11:23 Comments || Top||

#12  ^ This!
Posted by: Whiskey Mike || 03/18/2020 11:30 Comments || Top||

#13  Keep licking the shrine doors then.
Posted by: DarthVader || 03/18/2020 12:08 Comments || Top||

#14  Is it worth destroying the livelihoods of the other 99.9 percent of the population because a few thousand unlucky elderly folks will die sooner than they otherwise would?

Ask the old folks.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 03/18/2020 12:51 Comments || Top||

#15  Is it worth destroying the livelihoods of the other 99.9 percent of the population

Fewer surly cashiers, waiters, grocery baggers, back office admins, mall rats and taxi drivers?
Yeah, I think so.
Posted by: Skidmark || 03/18/2020 13:06 Comments || Top||

#17  Perhaps all the Jews at the WHO should put together a list of best practices for Muslims to follow to avoid getting infected by CV.
Posted by: gorb || 03/18/2020 15:03 Comments || Top||

#18  #16 info coming out.

But COVID fatalities, like those caused by the flu, are overwhelmingly concentrated in elderly people with or-existing conditions
Posted by: Woodrow || 03/18/2020 17:39 Comments || Top||

#19  Young folks may be more likely to survive but I suspect lung damage may shorten their lives and the quality thereof.
Posted by: gorb || 03/18/2020 17:53 Comments || Top||

19 dead, 200 hospitalized after consuming fake alcoholic drinks in Iran’s Ardabil
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6515 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran

#1  You know, in 10th, 11th century Iran was a scientific center of the world.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 03/18/2020 3:33 Comments || Top||

#2  Daintily retrieved from the "too gross to pos'" pile in light of alcohol content...

Sick Shiites were standing in line
To kiss the behind of a shrine:
"It's really a pity
Our shithole's so spitty."
"A loaf and saliva..."
"Not wine?" A survivor
In wilderness wholly divine?
"O Allah, please send us some sign!"
Posted by: Oscar Bluetooth4930 || 03/18/2020 5:09 Comments || Top||

#3  oh it was alcohol, just not the right kind of alcohol
Posted by: Bob Grorong1136 || 03/18/2020 7:32 Comments || Top||

#4  Have some Zima-Zima juice.
Posted by: swksvolFF || 03/18/2020 10:41 Comments || Top||

#5  You know, in 10th, 11th century Iran was a scientific center of the world.

Just shows you how things can go to hell in a mere millennium or so.

The irony here is that the word "alcohol" comes from the Arabic.
Posted by: SteveS || 03/18/2020 12:44 Comments || Top||

Riots rock overcrowded Lebanon prisons over coronavirus fears
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6506 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Irony-killed in a prison riot about dying in prison
Posted by: Skidmark || 03/18/2020 14:21 Comments || Top||

British Hostage in #Iran Nazanin Ratcliffe , held since 2016, has been "temporarily released"
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6509 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran

Iran warns 'Millions' of its citizens could die from coronavirus
  • [Daily Mail, Where America Gets Its News] 85,000 prisoners are freed from jails and deaths spike by 135 to 988

  • The inmates released include political prisoners and 'security-related' prisoners held in state prisons

  • The UN has called for Iran to free all political prisoners held inside the country's disease-ridden jails

  • It comes as deaths in the Islamic Republic spike by 135 – a 13 per cent rise - to 988

  • Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
Posted by: Fred || 03/18/2020 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [6516 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran

#1  overnight another 100+ deaths in iran and another 1000+ new infections (official figures)

Iran is, if not the worse case situation for this disease, it is close to it. However, given the essentially 'no prevention' policy the govt had until recently, the virus has surely spread to almost the whole country and if they were going to hit 1M, they would be having 5000 deaths per day by now from the disease.

Probably the official figures are low but its hard to believe they could cover up 5000 deaths per day.
Posted by: lord garth || 03/18/2020 9:49 Comments || Top||

#2  See my calculations on the other thread, LG.

Even in this worst case - and we're in the dead of winter now, when heavily-polluted Iran faces its worst air conditions and highest incidence of respiratory disease each year - even now COVID deaths in Iran will be of the same order of magnitude as annual traffic fatalities in that country.

The US equivalent to this absolute worst case would be CA. 100k deaths in 2020. Tops.

That's a very bad flu season. That is NOT a "pandemic," or anywhere close to one.

What utter madness.
Posted by: Lex || 03/18/2020 9:55 Comments || Top||

#3  doing calculations based on Iran official data is a problem because the numbers are unreliable

but in Italy, the numbers of deaths is probably pretty reliable even if the numbers of infected isn't so great

the past few days seem to show a plateau in deaths

could be it is a top plateau, could be a plateau before a step increase

if you are into analysis, that country would be one to watch

Posted by: lord garth || 03/18/2020 10:45 Comments || Top||

#4  In a modern society with decent sanitation there is a natural limit to how many people one can infect.

That number's probably between 2 and 3. So with reasonable social distancing in place, the curve will inevitably flatten. It will not take 9 months or a year or even 6 months. More like weeks.

This will happen soon in Italy and it will sooner or later happen in Iran and anyplace modern and with basic public health measures, so long as people stop congregating en masse.
Posted by: Lex || 03/18/2020 10:58 Comments || Top||

#5  Even that cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, topped out at n infection rate of 20 percent. On a cruise ship, for Allan's sake.

Obviously there is a high degree of immunity to this among the population, and the death rate while higher than the flu is still lower than for other epidemics in history.

We are not going to see "millions of deaths" in any country, not even in Iran. That's absurd.
Posted by: Lex || 03/18/2020 11:16 Comments || Top||

#6  Most likely from lead poisoning if they don't chill out and getting uppity against the Ayatollahs
Posted by: Frank G || 03/18/2020 11:20 Comments || Top||

#7  another interesting case to follow is Israel

today they reported another 90 infections bringing the total infected to over 400 but with no fatalities

perhaps this says something about Israel's intensive care units
Posted by: lord garth || 03/18/2020 11:35 Comments || Top||

#8  Lex, thanks for the perspective. It is BADLY needed amidst all the hysteria and panic.
Posted by: Tom || 03/18/2020 13:27 Comments || Top||

#9  It is BADLY needed amidst all the hysteria and panic.

AND lack of facts, other than body counts.
Posted by: Skidmark || 03/18/2020 14:30 Comments || Top||

#10  The problem, as has been pointed out, is the opportunity for the tyrant-wannabes to be tyrannical ie The New York Commie and "his shelter in place" his type will use this as an excuse to accrue much power to himself. Also see the anti-2nd A moves in Ill & CA.
Posted by: AlanC || 03/18/2020 16:23 Comments || Top||

#11  Most likely from lead poisoning if they don't chill out and getting uppity against the Ayatollahs

That's what I'm reading.
Posted by: swksvolFF || 03/18/2020 16:47 Comments || Top||

Who's in the News
8Govt of Iran Proxies
5Govt of Iran
4Sublime Porte
2Islamic State
2Govt of Iraq
1Govt of Pakistain Proxies
1Muslim Brotherhood
1Govt of Syria
1Govt of Pakistan

E-Mail Me

The Classics
The O Club
Rantburg Store
The Bloids
The Never-ending Story
Gulf War I
The Way We Were


On Sale now!

A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.

Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.

Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has dominated Mexico for six years.
Click here for more information

Meet the Mods
In no particular order...
Steve White
Scooter McGruder
john frum
Bright Pebbles
trailing wife
Frank G
Alaska Paul

Two weeks of WOT
Wed 2020-03-18
  Manchester Arena bombing: Hashem Abedi guilty of 22 murders
Tue 2020-03-17
  China expels ALL American reporters!
Mon 2020-03-16
  Saudi Arabia detains 298 officials in new corruption cases
Sun 2020-03-15
  Hezbollah commander prosecuted in Austria for terror finance
Sat 2020-03-14
  Violence by Taliban Spikes Despite Peace Efforts
Fri 2020-03-13
  Sudan moves against Bashir loyalists after assassination attempt
Thu 2020-03-12
  4 Iranian proxy forces HQ hit in airstrikes along Iraq-Syria border
Wed 2020-03-11
  Rocket attack in Iraq kills two Americans and a British citizen
Tue 2020-03-10
  US begins military pullout from two Afghan bases
Mon 2020-03-09
  Turks Use Drones in Tear Gas Attacks on Greek Border Guards
Sun 2020-03-08
  Leb defaults
Sat 2020-03-07
  Saudis reportedly detain three royal princes over ‘coup plot’
Fri 2020-03-06
  Tunis: suicide bomber explodes near U.S. embassy
Thu 2020-03-05
  Russia sends reinforcements through the Bosporus
Wed 2020-03-04
  4 L-39's and 18 Su-24's left in Syrian Airforce
Tue 2020-03-03
  Taliban Orders Resumed Attacks on Govt Forces

Better than the average link...

Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Help keep the Burg running! Paypal:
WoT Operations (16)    Non-WoT (31)    Opinion (18)    (0)    Politix (4)