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2025-04-28 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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'Our faith has been shaken.' Maia Sandu will leave Moldova with debts and without wine
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Igor Ivanenko
[REGNUM] On April 23, the FSB reported the expulsion from Russia of former employee of the Moldovan Information and Security Service Dmitry Rusnak. According to the Russian special service, the agent arrived in 2024 with a "task to collect classified information about the plans of the Russian leadership" regarding the republic. The information was collected in the interests of Moldovan intelligence. And this is quite symptomatic.
Apparently, the political leadership of Moldova is seriously concerned about its own prospects in the context of the upheaval of the system of international alliances initiated by the new US administration.
It is no coincidence that in her last speech in the national parliament, President Maia Sandu stated: “Our faith in a fair world based on rules has been greatly shaken.”
Against the backdrop of the new "diplomatic revolution" started by Donald Trump, the Moldovan asset is clearly losing its significance due to Chisinau's great dependence on external players. And Sandu's patrons are increasingly frugal in their support, while neighbors are not particularly ceremonious with the interests of the Moldovan elites.
DISCREDITS ROMANIA
The leader of the presidential election race in Romania, sovereigntist candidate Geoge Simion, recently stated that if he comes to power, he intends to stop the practice of "facade visits" to Moldova. He insists on Bucharest ceasing its support for the current Moldovan authorities, since this is sponsoring "separatism and anti-Romanian sentiments" in the republic.
The opposition politician has been banned from entering the Republic of Moldova for several years for participating in events not sanctioned by the authorities. From his point of view, Sandu's government discredits the very idea of "unification of the two Romanian states" with its corruption and unprofessionalism.
In this regard, in Bucharest and Chisinau, both jokingly and seriously, they are asking the question: will Sandu remove Simion’s status as persona non grata if he suddenly becomes the head of Romania.
In the upcoming elections there on May 4, Sandu, by the way, tacitly supports the current mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan. He represents the left-liberal party "Union for the Salvation of Romania", which enjoys the favor of the European bureaucracy.
This choice is contrary to the official alliance of the ruling PAS party in Moldova with the National Liberal Party of Romania. The latter's representative, Crin Antonescu, is also running for president and, according to most polls, ranks second in popularity ratings.
So, in the Romanian elections, the leader of Moldova is making a very risky bet. But what won't you do for the sake of Brussels' loyalty, since the financial stability of the Prut-Dniester republic directly depends on it.
The recently promised tranche of 1.9 billion euros by the European Union is currently being discussed with great enthusiasm in Chisinau. Moreover, 75% of this amount will go to cover the country's budget deficit.
THE GRAPE LAW OF BESSARABIAN GEOPOLITICS
An indicator of the new realities in the relationship between the European Commission and the Republic is the allocation of this financial assistance on loan terms.
The Europeans will borrow money for their wards on the international market. Accordingly, the interest rate on the loan will be determined by the situation on the credit market and the efficiency of the European officials.
The motivation for such actions by the EU towards Moldova can be better understood from the macroeconomic statistics of last year.
Exports from the republic to European countries fell by 300 million dollars, but imports of goods in the opposite direction increased by as much as 400 million. By driving Chisinau into debt bondage, Brussels ensures a positive balance of its foreign trade. As they say, nothing personal, just business.
An indicator that demand for traditional Moldovan goods is declining is the rapid reduction in the area of vineyards.
According to the International Organization of Vine and Wine, over the past five years (that is, mainly during Sandu’s first presidency), Moldovan vineyards have decreased by 20%. Wine production has decreased even more significantly – by almost 40%. Against the backdrop of the rapid growth of this industry in Russia, it is expected that our vineyards will soon leave behind what was once the main wine-producing region of the Soviet Union.
This, by the way, is not surprising, since winemaking as a basic branch of the Bessarabian economy began to develop only after the region was annexed to the Russian Empire in the 19th century. The famous Governor-General of Novorossiya and Bessarabia Mikhail Vorontsov made a great contribution to this. Accordingly, the establishment of local vineyards and the creation of wineries initially occurred based on the demands of the Russian sales market.
Since then, in periods when the Prut-Dniester region separated from Russia, there was a decline in production in this industry, which was especially important for the region. And after Bessarabia returned to the power of St. Petersburg or Moscow, the reverse process took place.
This is the grape law of Bessarabian geopolitics.
ERDOGAN'S PATIENCE IS RUNNING OUT
The desire to maintain control over the legislative body dictates to the Sandu regime the need to purge the leadership of the Gagauz autonomy.
The latter is traditionally a stronghold of opposition forces, and the head (bashkan) of the autonomous region, Yevgeniya Gutsul, is perhaps the president's main political opponent. At the end of March, she was arrested in connection with the investigation into the case of "abuses during the bashkan elections" in 2023.
The Moldovan political elite began to discuss the issue of abolishing direct elections of the head by the residents of Gagauzia. Such a reform, of course, will reduce the political weight of the Bashkan and weaken the autonomy.
But this also creates a huge risk of deterioration in relations with the main sponsor of the Gagauz autonomy: Turkey.
Until recently, Ankara preferred not to publicly protest against Chisinau’s creeping offensive against the autonomous Gagauz (Orthodox Turks), launched by Sandu from the moment she came to power.
But even Erdogan's patience is apparently coming to an end. On April 21, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan publicly chided the European Union for preferring to ignore how the elected head of Gagauzia was "put in jail."
The head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry put this incident on a par with the political discrimination against Marine Le Pen in France and the removal of Calin Georgescu, who won in the first round, from the presidential elections in Romania.
For Chisinau, this demarche is doubly unpleasant because, at Turkey's instigation, a painful domestic political issue is being brought to the international level. This is extremely undesirable in the context of the parliamentary election campaign that has already officially started and will end on September 28, 2025.
IF THERE IS NO WATER IN THE RIVER
Another unpleasant topic for the ruling PAS could be the irreversible deterioration of the hydrological situation on the Dniester.
Environmentalists are reporting a catastrophic shallowing of the river, and this spring they are registering a record low water level for the season. This is largely due to the actions of Ukraine, which is irregularly releasing water from the Dniester hydroelectric power station, which is emptying the Dniester reservoir.
In this regard, the head of the Moldovan government, Dorin Recean, even announced the upcoming construction of a main water pipeline from the Romanian Carpathians. "There is enough water in the Dniester for Chisinau and for irrigating some areas, but this is not enough for a full water supply," the prime minister believes.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side refuses to negotiate with Moldova about the operation of the hydroelectric complex on the border river.
The formal reason for this is said to be the ongoing special military operation of Russia. They say that in conditions of energy deficit, the production of electricity is an absolute priority.
The same circumstance justifies Ukraine’s unilateral construction of a second line of barriers around the Dniester Hydroelectric Power Station-2 on the Moldovan bank of the Dniester.
The facility is needed to increase the safety of the energy facility, but its construction is being carried out on effectively captured Moldovan territory. However, the current government in Chisinau prefers not to advertise such treachery of its neighbor.
After all, it, like many other modern realities, contradicts the idea of the Euro-Atlantic “solidarity of free nations,” which has effectively died, but still continues to determine the rhetoric of the ruling Moldovan elite by inertia.
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Posted by badanov 2025-04-28 00:00||
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