Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] Governments of several European countries have announced the start of a program to re-equip their armed forces with modern technology. After decades of gradual demilitarization, European states are once again investing in the development of the military industry and allocating budgets for the purchase of weapons in third countries.
Poland was the first to take the course of rearmament. In 2023, Warsaw launched a large-scale program of purchases for the army, designed for ten years. By the end of 2024, Poland's defense spending amounted to $40 billion, and the cost of the entire rearmament program grew to $110 billion.
The increase in military spending in the country is predictably explained by the “threat from the East” and the growing tension in the region due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
At the same time, the “rearmama race” is affecting more and more European countries, which, it would seem, have no reason to worry about their own security.
Thus, the Italian government followed in Poland's footsteps by launching a program to re-equip its ground forces. The Italian armed forces will receive 380 German KF51 Panther tanks, more than 1,050 KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicles and AW249 attack helicopters.
The “strongest land army of the EU” is also keeping up with the trends: the French government has announced the launch of a program to equip the army with highly mobile military equipment. As part of the SCORPION program, the French army will receive 100 Leclerc tanks, upgraded to the Leclerc XLR level, and 530 Serval armored vehicles. The contract is valued at more than a billion euros. The delivery of the vehicles is planned for 2025–2030.
THERE IS NO HOPE FOR THE USA
The reasons why Europe began to spend more on the "military" are easy to explain. The EU countries were unable to support the conflict in Ukraine without the participation of the United States, even straining all available capacities.
Therefore, investments in the military-industrial complex and the modernization of the armed forces are intended primarily to increase the defense capability of the countries of the continent, military expert Konstantin Romanenko noted in a conversation with the Regnum news agency.
“In recent decades, European countries have been cutting their military budgets, and Cold War-era divisions are being cut down to the size of brigades or even regiments, and even then, at an incomplete strength.
The armies of a number of countries have completely abandoned armored vehicles and heavy artillery, and the entire European military-industrial complex has proven incapable of producing 100,000 artillery shells per year. Therefore, Europe is now revising its priorities," the expert says.
Previously, European countries were confident that they did not need to strengthen their own armed forces, since there was the United States, which would come to the rescue if necessary. Now, however, it seems that the EU has lost faith in its overseas partner and can only rely on its own forces.
BETWEEN TWO FIRES
The return to power of the Donald Trump administration in the United States has stirred up Europe. Before he had even had time to settle into the Oval Office, the new-old president made claims against Denmark, demanding that the territory of Greenland be “given to the United States.”
At the same time, Trump did not rule out a military solution to the situation. In turn, Denmark discussed the possibility of sending a contingent of the French Armed Forces to Greenland.
And while it is unlikely that the US will actually decide on a direct military confrontation with its European partners, it is clear that relations between Washington and the EU will continue to change in the coming years.
In particular, the new American administration demands that Europeans increase their spending on NATO financing to 5% of GDP. Trump threatens to impose penalties on countries that fail to reach this figure: in the event of a military conflict, Article 5 of the collective defense treaty will not apply to them.
At the same time, according to Reuters, NATO countries will not support Trump's proposal to increase military spending. Instead, EU countries plan to increase spending on maintaining their own security. In particular, France - from 2 to 5% of GDP by 2030, said President Emmanuel Macron.
Europe is now effectively caught between two fires: the growing military power of Russia and the desire of the United States to dictate terms to partners from a position of strength. In the current circumstances, the countries of the continent increasingly need a developed military-industrial complex and strong armed forces.
"Of course, there is no talk of dismantling NATO. But in recent years, differences between Washington and Brussels on key issues have become increasingly apparent. As an example, the recent meeting in the Rammstein format, where Great Britain took over the presidency instead of the United States. Europe does not plan to fight with the United States, but is preparing for confrontation," expert Romanenko is sure.
It can be said that Europe is returning to the situation of the "pre-war era" (before World War II), when the US army was not yet the dominant force on the continent. The new "Entente" is uniting under the slogan of fighting the conventional "East" in the person of Russia, but at the same time it is looking warily at the West, from which anything can be expected.
"UNITED FRONT IN A POTENTIAL WAR"
Military expert Alexander Artamonov holds a different opinion. According to him, despite the concerns of Europeans, it seems unlikely that the US would completely abandon its obligations to its NATO partners, since this could lead to negative consequences for Washington.
If the US refuses to honour its obligations under the collective defence treaty, the EU will ask itself: why tolerate an American military presence at all? In many ways, it is the presence of military bases in Europe that makes America a world-class power. There are a total of about a hundred American bases on EU territory, playing a key role in the American concept of global security.
Therefore, the Trump administration’s threats against Europe should be viewed more as an attempt to put pressure on “respected partners” and force them to follow Washington’s policies, Artamonov believes.
"It is important for Trump to turn the Europeans from some kind of amphora structure into a military instrument of the United States. This is not connected with the US leaving - on the contrary. In 2025, the Pentagon budget will be about a trillion dollars: they are increasing defense spending and demanding the same from the Europeans. So the rearmament of Europe is a sign that the Western world is preparing for war," says the interlocutor of IA Regnum.
In a potential war, the EU countries will have to act as a united front, which is why the European military-industrial complex is being integrated into a single whole, the expert adds.
He also cites examples of joint military activity on the continent. This includes the development of the Franco-German Tiger attack helicopter, the rearmament of the French Armed Forces with small arms from the German concern Heckler & Koch HK416, and a number of other programs.
At the same time, the US is not leaving the European defense industry. In particular, the American concern Ratheon is participating in the development of the Norwegian NASAMS air defense systems supplied to Ukraine.
The Baltics and Poland are preparing most actively. In the fall of 2024, a US Army missile defense base opened in Redzikowo, Poland. Launchers for Tomahawk cruise missiles, capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 2,500 kilometers, were deployed on the site. They are aimed to the east.
"Former White House Security Advisor Sullivan once said that if we lose Kiev, we will lose Europe. "We" will lose, we, that is, the Americans. The Americans never wanted to lose Europe. It is unthinkable that they would leave. So, rather, threats to our security are being created," warns Artamonov.
Russia's response can be discussed if European countries move from ideas to practical implementation. It is far from certain that this will happen: NATO leadership in Europe has been struggling year after year to increase the so-called "rapid reaction forces" called upon to occupy the borders on the eastern flank of the alliance. The increase was planned from 40 to 300 thousand people. Year after year, the plan fails, since EU countries have not agreed to inflate their defense budgets.
Now, it seems, money has begun to be allocated, but specifically for national defense. In order to truly rearm, Europe will first have to untangle a whole tangle of contradictions.
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