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2025-01-17 Europe
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'Hundred Years' Treaty': London secured Ukraine for itself to continue the war
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Denis Davydov
[REGNUM] The UK's 100-year partnership agreement with Ukraine, signed in Kiev on 16 January during an "unscheduled visit" by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is nothing special.
The document, immediately published on the website of the President of Ukraine, consists of a set of general phrases about how the parties will build “strong ties between the two countries across the entire spectrum of relations: from trade, security and defense to science and technology, education, culture, and more.”
The preamble, in which they are “determined” and “recognize,” is only slightly shorter than the main part, in which the signatories promise to deepen defense cooperation, integrate Ukraine into NATO, and make efforts to eliminate long-term systemic threats and challenges to maritime security in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas. And there was no particular need to go into detail: this is already the fourth Ukrainian-British agreement since the beginning of last year.
Although Zelensky, with all the necessary pathos, hastened to announce: "Today is truly a historic day. Relations between Ukraine and Great Britain are closer than ever. We have reached a new level, this is more than a strategic relationship."
The British government also noted that the 100-year partnership is “an important step in supporting Ukraine’s long-term security,” ensuring that “it will never again be vulnerable to the kind of brutality inflicted on it by Russia.” After all, the agreement commits Britain to stand side by side with sovereign Ukraine for a century!
As a confirmation of the seriousness of his intentions, Starmer promised 150 new artillery guns, a mobile air defense system and $3 billion from frozen Russian assets in the near future.
But when it comes to details, the real system of relationships between completely unequal partners becomes more understandable.
In April 2024, when the agreement on defence industrial cooperation was signed, BAE Systems arrived in Kyiv among representatives of 29 British defence companies. This company signed a contract with the UK Ministry of Defence for the maintenance and repair of L119 light guns provided to Ukraine.
As the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine Oleksandr Kamyshin stated on this occasion, "it was Great Britain that was the first country to sign the Agreement on Cooperation in the Sphere of Security with Ukraine, and it was British defense companies that were the first to open their offices here after the outbreak of the Great War. Our partnership is developing, and today we are one step closer to British manufacturers being the first to start producing their weapons in Ukraine."
In other words, the British government (represented by the Minister for Trade Policy) is loading up its arms manufacturers and the defense industry as a whole with orders. This is what the much more detailed than the “hundred-year” agreement on cooperation in the security sphere, signed on January 12, 2024, is based on.
In particular, paragraph three of part three of section two contains the very important words that the United Kingdom will encourage its defence industry to work with Ukraine “to support the localisation of repair, maintenance and production of UK defence products in Ukraine”.
War is a business, and the British have always been successful in it. And for current tasks, in August last year, an agreement was adopted to abolish import duties and tariff quotas in trade with Ukraine until 2029. No one knows what exactly the great Ukrainian economy can sell to the British (especially since the new rules do not yet apply to eggs and poultry). But it is known for sure what Britain sells: vehicles, some machines and mechanisms, chemical and pharmaceutical products.
But business can be done not only on this, so the “centenary treaty” also strengthened the British position in control of the grain trade and made them priority partners of Ukraine in the energy sector, the extraction of critical minerals and the production of “green” steel.
"In essence, this means long-term lease, practically for free. The figures for the return benefits clearly do not correspond to the volume of Britain's participation in the Ukrainian economy, especially since we are talking about 100 years. That is, even if the extraction of minerals and metallurgy are risky investments, they will be "recouped" in six months, a year at most. And, by the way, the signing of this agreement means how much longer the West plans to hold out in Ukraine in order to receive its profit," explainspolitical science doctor Alexander Semchenko to IA Regnum.
At the same time, according to him, this is a "bookmark", a time bomb under a future Ukraine as part of or under the control of Russia, since on the basis of this agreement Britain will be able to make claims similar to those made to Russia by holders of credit obligations of the tsarist government. That is, it is a bargaining tool - both economic and political.
But it is clear that no one can look a hundred years ahead. Therefore, quickly indicating their rights to this territory, the British are looking at least a year ahead. This was indirectly stated in official reports containing the strange formula "support Ukraine on the eve of Trump's inauguration."
According to political strategist Mykhailo Pavliv, the plan is to get Zelensky and his inner circle out of trouble that a change of team in the White House promises, and also to hold out until the US congressional elections in 2026. There, the Democrats, who are in complete solidarity with the British regarding the need to continue to keep Ukraine in the role of a tame crocodile, are counting on revenge.
And then it will be possible to reverse any of Trump’s peace projects.
"The Labour Party, represented by Starmer, understands that their rating is falling sharply, and nothing good will happen to them in the upcoming elections - any, no matter what. At the same time, they see how the Trumpists, specifically Elon Musk, are pushing through the same Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party. That is, of course, they need some kind of foothold, a point of application of efforts in order to actively sell this in their own country: look at our successful case on the external perimeter," Pavliv comments on the situation to IA Regnum.
Zelensky, his office chief Andriy Yermak (who made a series of quick trips to the US and Britain in December) and the collective “95th Quarter” understand that if they go to the elections that Trump demands of them, it will be a failure. Therefore, it is better to sit out the troubled times in London and put forward Valeriy Zaluzhny, who has retrained from commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to ambassador, to the forefront. He will take on all the negativity associated with the conclusion of the peace agreement, the post-war devastation and a host of all sorts of problems - if, of course, he agrees to such an unpleasant role.
"In London, the current government will be in opposition, almost under the patronage of the British, they will form some kind of shadow cabinet, an alternative government that will criticize the situation in Ukraine. Zaluzhny enters according to this scheme, becomes president and essentially accumulates all the problems. The plan of the British and "95th quarter" is to hang all the illnesses, hardships and difficulties of the consequences of the peace agreement and the guaranteed difficult socio-economic and political situation in Ukraine on Trump. And then triumphantly return to power," Pavliv is sure.
While Trump "turns off" the Ukrainian case and deals with the problem of China, taking his opponents out of the big game, the topic will be picked up by the British, who, of course, have their own interests. And for the general audience, this is called beautiful words about mutual support "for renewal, restructuring and reforms for future generations."
And, of course, all the “unprecedented agreements” will be easily thrown into the trash bin when they cease to be beneficial to the main beneficiaries.
As Ukrainian opposition political scientist Kost Bondarenko rightly noted, there is nothing more short-term than “hundred-year” or “eternal” agreements.
"Imagine that Great Britain signed a certain treaty with a certain country 100 years ago, at the beginning of 1925. During this time, Britain has had five monarchs and 24 prime ministers, Britain survived World War II, seven economic crises, lost its colonies, and ceased to be an empire. How many treaties signed by London in 1925 have not lost their relevance?" the expert asks rhetorically.
Therefore, the "100-year treaty" is rather an artistic device, corresponding to the laws of the stage genre and PR. And at its core is an attempt by the anti-Trump coalition to tie Zelensky, turn Ukraine into an instrument for achieving the goals of globalists in modern processes and secure an agreement on continuing the war under the protectorate of London. Regardless of any de-escalation processes and the torn country's exit to normal peaceful development.
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Posted by badanov 2025-01-17 00:00||
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