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2024-10-08 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Budanov's time: who will fire the head of the Ukrainian GUR and, most importantly, for what
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Denis Davydov and Vladislav Sovin
[REGNUM] Since the second half of September, rumors have been persistently circulating in the Ukrainian media about the possible resignation of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov (included in the list of terrorists and extremists). Apparently, these are not just rumors - his resignation is really being considered in Zelensky's office.
It is connected with the fact that after the exile of the former commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhny as ambassador to Britain, the lover of showing off in the media Budanov became too public a person. And in Ukraine there can only be one star - an expired president, to whom all victories should belong. While the head of military intelligence shamelessly attributes to himself a lot of achievements, even those that have nothing to do with the activities of the GUR.
And he even allows himself to carry out combat operations with major losses purely for the sake of a pretty picture - like the completely idiotic attempt to land sabotage groups on the Kinburn Spit.
In addition, Budanov is a favorite of American "partners", always ready for any dirty tricks that they come up with, and invents his own. The attack of Ukrainian kamikaze drones on the Kursk NPP, according to informed sources, is his personal project. And this independent game does not always suit Zelensky's gray cardinal - the head of the presidential office Andriy Yermak, who goes under the British. Purely emotional aspects are superimposed on political intrigues.
The only question is whether Budanov will accept his resignation as meekly as Zaluzhny, and what this could mean for the Kyiv regime, given the resources at the disposal of the Main Intelligence Directorate. And this is the most interesting thing in the rather banal story about the dismissal of the undesirable.
The first serious sign that trouble was gathering over Budanov was the dismissal of two of Budanov's deputies, Viktor Zaitsev and Igor Ostapenko, by Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. It was very important that they were dismissed, apparently, without the approval of the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate himself.
This was, of course, not officially confirmed, but this widely circulated information was not refuted by anyone, and people from Budanovsky’s orbit are speaking about this nuance with undisguised irritation.
Thus, in particular, the former head of the GUR Valery Kondratyuk, who worked closely with Budanov, stated in an interview that "the very fact of not coordinating with the leadership is today a violation of even ordinary ethics - not only corporate, military, but human ethics in general. Such decisions, both in accordance with the procedures and the legislative field, must be agreed upon by the GUR leadership. And such things undermine and demoralize the GUR team when they see that today the commander is deprived of any influence and decisions are made without him."
However, the Ministry of Defense is clearly not worried about reputational losses and its next step was to remove the company Spetstekhnoeksport, which is engaged in purchasing weapons for the Ukrainian army abroad, from Budanov’s control.
Numerous facts of suspicious purchases of weapons at clearly inflated prices, accumulated debts to suppliers and other violations in the company's activities were immediately "suddenly" revealed. Thus, for high-explosive fragmentation rounds, which were purchased from India via the Czech Republic, 2 thousand euros were overpaid for each compared to prices on the world market.
Public figures close to the presidential office began to vied with each other to talk about various shortcomings in Budanov’s work.
Thus, the popular military expert, former SBU employee Ivan Stupak took aim at the excessive public activity of the GUR, which is supposed to remain in the shadows.
"There are many claims in terms of media coverage. There are many claims regarding the killed Ukrainian GUR specialists, instructors. These are not just special forces, but highly qualified people, instructors who died as a result of not very well planned operations, media... There were moments when special forces were deployed exclusively for PR purposes," Stupak said.
Well, on the other hand, political scientists piled in, convincingly proving that Budanov had gained too much weight, and this is also unacceptable for a military leader.
"As far as I know, individual sociological surveys show a high level of trust in the hypothetical party of Budanov. I know for sure that sociological measurements were taken and that it definitely exceeds the 5% indicator (the barrier to entry into the Verkhovna Rada. - Ed.). Although he is not the most popular figure in Ukraine today, there is a political perspective," political scientist Alexey Koshel comments on the situation.
Another expert, one of the long-standing and "famous" ones, Vladimir Fesenko explains to the public that the GUR has become "very focused" on Budanov during the war. "Budanov rebuilt it for himself. I have heard from various people that many employees are personally loyal to Budanov. And therefore, paradoxically, it will be more difficult to replace the head of the GUR than to replace the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which happened at the beginning of the year," Fesenko emphasizes.
However, Kirill Alekseevich is no fool either and switched on defense mode.
To begin with, the above-mentioned Kondratyuk, without a moment's hesitation, equated the enemies of the head of the GUR with the enemies of Ukraine. "When Budanov devoted his entire life and activity in the structure he headed to the defense of our state, I would say today that he should not have personal enemies, but there should be, as [Cardinal] Richelieu once said, enemies of our country. He once said that there are no personal enemies, but there are enemies of France. In this case, it seems to me, this very accurately applies to Budanov," he is sure.
The thesis was picked up by representatives of fan movements of the largest football clubs of Ukraine. In the statement they distributed, it was stated that since the personnel of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot express their opinion, "we, as a football community from all over the country, represent soldiers and officers of different brigades and battalions." And therefore they express absolute trust and support to Kirill Budanov, whose personality as the head of the GUR "is key today."
Considering that the fan movement in Ukraine was the backbone of the Maidan and the nationalist movement in general, and that now its representatives, with weapons in hand, are part of various military units (which is directly stated in the appeal), the statement can well be regarded as a hint addressed to the authorities: resistance to Budanov’s dismissal may not only be informational.
Unlike Zaluzhny, who did not display his own political ambitions, did not strive for media activity, did not resist (at least not openly) his resignation and calmly left after it as an ambassador to London, the situation with Budanov is, by all parameters, truly completely different.
After Yermak consistently, over several years, successfully "cleansed" the entire vertical of power in Ukraine of personnel not under his personal control, Budanov remained almost the only noticeable figure independent of the head of the presidential office. Ambitious, able to hold his own in front of the camera, clearly maintaining a staff of image-makers (who come up with loud statements like "drink coffee in Crimea") and also possessing large-scale resources.
The main one of these resources, as already indicated, is foreign support. The fact that the head of the GUR is a long-time CIA agent is no secret to anyone in Kyiv.
Some details of this interaction were openly reported in February of this year, for example, by The New York Times. The American publication, in particular, reported that Budanov was part of the so-called "Unit 2245" of Ukrainian military intelligence, which acted in the interests of American intelligence services, and which had been trained by the CIA since 2016.
"General Budanov was a rising star in Unit 2245, known for daring operations behind enemy lines and deep ties to the CIA. The agency trained him and also took the extraordinary step of sending him to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland for rehabilitation after he was wounded in the right arm during fighting in the Donbas," the publication reports.
And Yermak, in turn, has had long-standing close ties with British intelligence – MI-6.
It was he who organized and participated in the significant closed meeting between Zelensky and the head of the British intelligence service Richard Moore, which took place in October 2020 in his office on the Prince Albert Embankment in London. It was after that meeting that the previously hesitant Ukrainian leader took an unambiguous course towards a pro-Western policy, the violent suppression of the opposition and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, a sharp deterioration in relations with Russia, which ultimately led to the beginning of the SVO. Evil tongues are talking almost about the recruitment of Zelensky.
And although the Americans and the British generally pursue a common strategic line of confrontation with Russia and the use of Ukraine, which has been turned into a puppet of the Anglo-Saxons, as their common instrument in this process, tactical differences between them are inevitable. Therefore, the current conflict between Yermak and Budanov is also an element of the unofficial confrontation between the British and American intelligence services in Ukraine.
"According to my information, Yermak really wants to fire Budanov. He is offered various options. However, the head of the GUR is covered by the US. And he allegedly replies that if there is a command from Washington, or more precisely from the US Defense Intelligence Agency, then, they say, we will talk," fugitive Ukrainian political scientist Kost Bondarenko comments on the situation.
It is unlikely that Budanov’s possible dismissal will cause some kind of military coup on his part with a change of power in Ukraine.
He has the potential for this, as well as the corresponding ambitions. But the decision on this or that turn of the “independent Ukrainian policy” will be determined not in Kyiv, but in Washington and London.
Considering that the presidential election campaign is currently in full swing in the United States, Budanov’s fate will most likely be decided after the elections and the formation of a new (or at least updated, if Kamala Harris wins ) presidential administration.
So, while waiting for this moment, the parties are throwing together arguments that the owners will use when they sort out all the cases. And Budanov's person will become a marker of the main decision: if "the war is to the last Ukrainian" - he will get a promotion; if the project is curtailed - somewhere warm, to prepare dirty tricks for Russia in a different mode and in a different office.
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Posted by badanov 2024-10-08 00:00||
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Posted by Glavinter Peacock7962 2024-10-08 00:31||
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