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2024-08-13 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Ukrainian perspective: Operation in Kursk region
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Korrespomdent] 21:56 The analytical group Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to hold a bridgehead in the Kursk region for "several weeks or more," depending on what losses the Ukrainian command is prepared to accept and what forces the Russian army is prepared to throw into battle.
Military analysts estimate the number of Ukrainian forces involved in the fighting in Kursk Oblast at several thousand. According to them, the front is about 50 km long. CIT believes that the culmination of the offensive is already behind us, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are consolidating their positions. At the same time, analysts confirm that in Donetsk Oblast, Russian troops are managing to advance towards Toretsk in the Pokrovsk direction, but they doubt that this is due to the transfer of Ukrainian forces to Kursk Oblast. No attempts by Russia to carry out a large-scale transfer of forces from Donetsk Oblast to Kursk Oblast have been recorded.
21:37 Soldiers from the Bravo group of the 130th separate reconnaissance battalion showed a video from the center of the Russian city of Sudzha in the Kursk region. Radio Liberty established that the video shows the very center of the city, Karl Marx Street. Another video from the center of Sudzha also does not show any Russian soldiers or civilians. Caution, the video is 18+
21:22 US Senator Richard Blumenthal during his visit to Kiev called the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region "historic": "The breakthrough in Kursk on the front is historic. This is a large-scale breakthrough. Good news, big news that promises even more potential breakthroughs."
In turn, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region is "bold, brilliant and simply beautiful." He said that he would "press Biden so that the United States gives Ukraine all the weapons to win a war that cannot be lost."
20:15 Zelensky said in an evening video address that Kursk will be the "final" of Putin's rule: "We see how Russia is actually moving forward under Putin: 24 years ago there was the Kursk disaster - the symbolic beginning of his rule. And now we can see what will be the finale for him. And Kursk too. The catastrophe of his war."
The President emphasized that the territory of the Kursk region, which is currently controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, "in particular, are the areas from which the Russian army launched attacks on our Sumy region, therefore our operations are purely a matter of security for Ukraine: liberation of the border area from Russian military." The head of state thanked "soldiers, sergeants and officers for their courage and effectiveness of actions," and also separately thanked each unit that replenishes the exchange fund for Ukraine.
19:19 The military operation in the Kursk region may develop into a new full-fledged front in a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, Western analysts and journalists believe. Read more about what is happening in this Russian region in the article The Kursk operation is gaining momentum.
19:08 Russian troops on the border of the Kursk region were calmly drinking coffee in the forest when they were attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Financial Times writes, citing Ukrainian soldiers who are participating in the operation. As one of them said, "we killed many of them on the first day because they were unarmed and did not expect us." Dozens more Russian soldiers surrendered. According to Ukrainian soldiers, they crossed the border at about 13:00 on Tuesday, August 6. The soldiers also said that they were transferred to the Kursk region from the Kharkiv region and from the hottest areas of Donetsk: Chasov Yar, New York and Toretsk.
18:55 Radio Liberty showed a detailed map of the advance of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region:
Radio Liberty showed a map of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' advance in the Kursk region
18:24 Zelensky officially confirmed the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region for the first time. According to the president, today he held a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Headquarters, where the main report was given by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky on "our defensive actions at the front and the operation in the Kursk region." Among other things, the Minister of Internal Affairs, other officials, and the SBU were instructed to prepare a humanitarian plan for the territory where the operation is taking place.
During the meeting, Syrsky spoke about the "continuation of the offensive operation in the Kursk region." According to him, Ukrainian troops currently control about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. He also emphasized that the troop groups "are fulfilling their assigned tasks."
17:47 The Russian Defense Ministry announced that the delivery of "additional forces and resources to increase the troop group and form reserves" has been organized to the Kursk region.
17:26 The SBU stated that it is recording attempts by Russian special services to use the situation in the Kursk region to baselessly accuse Ukrainian defenders of committing war crimes. To do this, the Russian side creates and disseminates various fakes and information leaks that have nothing to do with reality.
According to the SBU, in the near future, Russian special services "may resort to staging crimes, in particular against the civilian population of the Kursk region, in order to subsequently accuse the Ukrainian side of committing them. The SBU warns that such attempts are useless and will not influence either the offensive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces or the opinion of our state's international partners."
17:19 According to calculations by the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, Ukraine controls approximately 44 settlements in the Kursk region, while another ten have the status of "unknown". Analysts added that "the estimate is extremely conservative", and now almost no one knows the real number. But there are villages near which there were photos of Ukrainian fighters, but the control was not by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. "That is why the estimate is conservative", the experts explained.
16:40 The Russian Investigative Committee has announced the "defendants" in the criminal case opened in connection with the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region. Moscow accuses the commanders of the 22nd separate and 80th separate airborne assault Ukrainian brigades, Vladimir Pipko and Emil Ishkulov, of "committing a terrorist act, murder and attempted murder."
16:34 After the start of the operation in the Kursk region, the number of KAB strikes on the Kharkiv region has sharply decreased, said the head of the OVA Oleg Sinegubov. According to him, if earlier there were 30-60 such strikes per day, now there are no more than ten. At the same time, the head of the Sumy OVA Vladimir Artyukh said that Russia has increased the number of air strikes on the region to 50 per day.
15:53 Kursk Region Head Alexey Smirnov said that the situation in the region is "complicated", with 28 settlements under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the frontline length is 12 km, and the width is 40 km. According to him, the regional authorities know nothing about the fate of about 2,000 people who are in these 28 settlements. Smirnov also said that about 121,000 residents have left the border areas of the Kursk Region to date. As a result of the attacks, 12 civilians were killed and 121 people were injured. There is no clear front line in the region, which complicates determining the location of Ukrainian troops, Smirnov added.
15:45 Radio Liberty has shown satellite images showing damage to the Sudzha gas metering station. According to an analysis of the photographs, some of the damage occurred between August 9 and 10, and some between August 10 and 11. The photo from August 11 shows that one of the station's administrative buildings, as well as one of the sites where the metering equipment is installed, is almost completely destroyed. At the same time, on the morning of Monday, August 12, Gazprom claimed that it was continuing to pump gas through the station to Europe in the usual volume.
14:59 Putin said at a meeting on the situation in the Kursk region that "the Defense Ministry must drive the enemy out of the region's territory." According to the head of the Kremlin, Kiev is trying to improve its negotiating positions in the future with its actions in the Kursk region. That is why, Putin believes, Ukraine has rejected "peace proposals from Moscow and the mediators." Putin also said that Kiev's operation in the Kursk region allegedly pursues the military goal of stopping the advance of Russian troops.
14:21 The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Russian military forces allegedly repelled seven attacks by Ukrainian assault groups in the Kursk region in one day.
14:14 Russia is transferring fewer of its forces to the Kursk region than Ukraine would like, The Economist writes, citing Ukrainian military personnel. Thus, the transfer is mainly from the Kharkiv region and much less from the Donetsk region. "Their commanders are not idiots. They are transferring forces, but not as quickly as we would like. They know that we cannot expand logistics by 80 or 100 km," a source in the General Staff told the publication.
The offensive itself, according to The Economist, had been planned for a long time, but some aspects of it indicate a certain rush in preparation. All three soldiers interviewed who took part in the operation learned about it the day before the assault - they were withdrawn from other areas in eastern Ukraine. The main achievement of this offensive, according to the publication, is the rise in morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
12:35 The Kursk Region operational headquarters has decided to evacuate residents from the Belovsky District, said the head of the region, Alexey Smirnov.
11:33 The Ukrainian corps plans to remain in the Kursk region - more and more evidence of such plans is now appearing, writes Forbes. The publication notes that the Ukrainians are digging trenches, and the Russians are also digging in in anticipation of a positional war. At the same time, both sides have begun to use industrial excavators to build fortifications.
At the same time, the article says that this does not mean that the Ukrainians have finished their offensive. It also does not mean that the Russians cannot counterattack and push the Ukrainians back to the border, analysts point out. "But it does mean that stabilization of the front line and long-term Ukrainian occupation of part of the Kursk region are on the agenda," the publication writes.
10:54 The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region is going better than expected, and this is a reason to talk about increasing the number of German Leopard 2 tanks for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said the head of the Bundestag Defense Committee, Markus Faber.
10:49 Russian media write that in one day the area of military operations in the Kursk region has increased by 70 square kilometers and now amounts to about 720 square kilometers.
The area of military operations in the Kursk region is expanding
10:25 The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that Beijing is closely monitoring the situation in the Kursk region and calls on all parties to de-escalate the conflict: "The Chinese side calls on all parties to adhere to the three principles of de-escalation of the situation, namely: the combat zone should not expand, the escalation of the armed conflict should not be allowed, and provocations leading to increased fire by either side should not be allowed."
09:13 Russia will not conduct mobilization due to the events in Kursk Oblast, said the head of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov. According to him, "there is no need to conduct mobilization in Russia due to the situation in Kursk Oblast, there are enough fighters at the front."
08:42 Russian war correspondents write that a battle has been going on at the Kolotilovka border point in the Belgorod region since the morning. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced the relocation of residents of the border Krasnoyarsk region to safer places "due to the activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
07:26 The US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Ukraine is advancing in the Kursk region, despite Russia’s claims that the situation has stabilized. Geolocated footage, as well as Russian and Ukrainian reports from August 10 and 11, indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced west and northwest in the Kursk region, although Russian sources have largely claimed that the Russian military has stabilized the situation. Analysts predict that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region and subsequent possible Ukrainian incursions will force the Kremlin to reallocate resources to defend the state border, sacrificing the effectiveness of military operations in Ukraine.
The BBC writes that Ukrainian troops have advanced at least 30 km into Russian territory - this has become the deepest and most significant advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces since the counteroffensive in the fall of 2022. Thus, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that it had prevented attempts by Ukrainian forces to break through in the areas of the settlements of Tolpino and Obshchy Kolodez in the Kursk region, which are located approximately 25 and 30 km from the border.
Footage posted online and confirmed by the BBC also showed fighting near the village of Levshinka, about 25km from the border. And in Sumy, which borders the Kursk region, BBC correspondents witnessed a steady stream of armoured personnel carriers and tanks moving towards Russia. Aerial photographs have also emerged showing Ukrainian tanks being used in battles on Russian territory.
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