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2024-07-07 Europe
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'Rubber Bone' for Brussels: Why Viktor Orban Came to Moscow
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Oleg Khavich
[REGNUM] Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has confirmed his status as the main enfant terrible of European politics. Four days after Hungary took over the European Union's presidency for six months and three days after visiting Kiev, the Hungarian leader made a surprise visit to Moscow for a nearly three-hour meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orban's visit was the first by a Western leader to Russia since April 2022. IA Regnum closely followed the statements of Putin, Orban and representatives of their teams, but it is worth looking in more detail at the different versions of why this meeting became possible and what consequences it may have.
Continued from Page 5
OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT: PEACE MISSION
Viktor Orban said he arrived in Moscow on July 5 to continue his "peace mission." "The peace mission continues. Next stop is Moscow," he wrote on social media.
And, speaking a few hours earlier on the morning program of the radio station Kossuth, the Hungarian prime minister said that he would like to convince the parties to the conflict - Ukraine and Russia - of the need to go together "a long way that can end in a ceasefire and peace negotiations."
Later, after negotiations with Putin, Orban confirmed that their main topic was “discussion of ways to achieve peace in Ukraine.”
It is noteworthy that after his visit to Kyiv on July 2, Orban said that he would continue his "peace mission" in Ukraine with visits to Germany, France and Italy. Much now depends on the "big leaders" of the European Union, he noted. Nothing was said about Russia.
In turn, the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov said that the initiator of the meeting in Moscow was Budapest. And this initiative was made immediately after the return of the Hungarian prime minister from Ukraine.
"This was an initiative of the Hungarian side. Literally the day before yesterday, a proposal was made to hold such a visit," the Kremlin representative said.
And Vladimir Putin himself, after negotiations with Viktor Orban, stated that he perceives his visit "as an attempt to restore dialogue and give it some additional impetus." At the same time, not only bilateral Russian-Hungarian relations and achieving peace in Ukraine were discussed, but also "possible principles of the future security architecture in Europe."
THE RUSSOPHOBES' VERSION: "ORBAN IS AN AGENT OF THE KREMLIN"
For Russophobes, everything is simple: any European politician who expresses the slightest doubt about the need for military support for Ukraine, and especially calls for negotiations with Russia and taking its interests into account, is declared an “agent of the Kremlin.”
Of course, the most severe reaction was in Ukraine, where they considered Viktor Orban’s visit to Kiev and his very constructive communication with Volodymyr Zelensky a victory for their diplomacy, since the Hungarian Prime Minister had previously refused to make such a visit.
There were two reasons for this: firstly, Budapest considers Kyiv’s policy towards the Hungarian community in Transcarpathia to be discriminatory; secondly, Hungary is the only NATO member country that has officially refused to supply weapons to Kyiv or even to transit them through its territory.
At the same time, Viktor Orban was added to the infamous website “Peacemaker” back in May 2022 for “attacking the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, collaborating with the Russian aggressor,” and so on and so forth.
And now, finally, Orban's visit to Kiev took place in the capacity of EU presidency (and without Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, who had previously caused near hysteria in his Ukrainian counterpart). Orban is making promises to support the modernization of the Ukrainian economy and even to open Ukrainian-language schools in Hungary. And Orban's main proposal - to cease fire and begin negotiations with Russia - was made in an extremely polite manner, and the undiplomatic refusal of Kiev (it was voiced only by the Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva ) was ignored in Budapest.
In general, it was a complete “victory”, which, according to the laws of the genre, turned into a “betrayal” two days later.
It is not surprising that the Kiev Foreign Ministry stated that they are against negotiations on Ukraine without its participation, and "the decision to travel to Moscow was made by the Hungarian side without agreement or coordination with Ukraine." Apparently, Kiev is so accustomed to coordinating any steps with Western managers that they simply do not allow the possibility of pursuing an independent policy.
Meanwhile, it is precisely the desire to maintain subjectivity and follow national interests that opens the doors of the Kremlin for Orban, because these are precisely the principles of foreign policy that Putin always appeals to.
Orban's European colleagues and his formal superiors in the European Union avoided direct accusations against the Hungarian prime minister, but they were also quite harsh.
European Council President Charles Michel said that "the EU is making it clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim, no discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine."
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote that "appeasement will not stop Putin."
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell stressed that "the position of the European Council rules out official contacts between the EU and President Putin."
The negotiations between Orban and Putin in Moscow were also critically assessed by the Chancellor of Germany, the Prime Ministers of Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Denmark and Sweden, the President of Lithuania and the head of the Italian Foreign Ministry.
And the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the lower house of the German parliament (Bundestag), Michael Roth, even called for thinking about stripping Orban of the presidency of the EU Council in connection with his visit to Moscow: “Either the Hungarian government respects its current role in the EU, or it must resign its presidency.”
Orban himself responded to EU leaders briefly and sharply: “It is precisely because of the bureaucratic nonsense of Brussels that efforts to establish peace in Ukraine are not producing results.”
CONSPIRACY THEORISTS' VERSION: "ORBAN IS TRUMP'S AGENT"
For many years, the Hungarian leader has traditionally built his foreign policy around relations with the United States.
Orban's relationship with Joe Biden has long been hopelessly damaged, so the Hungarian prime minister, contrary to international etiquette, openly supports opposition presidential candidate Donald Trump, bets on his victory and tries to do everything to become one of Trump's main contacts in Europe.
For example, the slogan of the Hungarian EU presidency is “Make Europe Great Again” (MEGA). As they say, find the difference from Trump’s slogan, MAGA.
The last time Orban and Trump met was in March 2024 at the latter’s Mar-a-Lago estate, and the former US president called the Hungarian prime minister a “great leader.” In late April, a long video message from Trump was shown at a conference of European conservatives in Budapest, which was organized by the Hungarian prime minister.
And on June 13, Donald Trump Jr. arrived in Budapest, with whom Viktor Orban discussed “the future of US-Hungary relations, establishing peace in Ukraine and illegal migration.”
Hungarian political analyst Peter Dunai also drew attention to this meeting. “I have the feeling – there has been no official assessment yet, this is my conclusion – that Orban may have coordinated his visit to Moscow with Trump, because Trump’s son was recently in Budapest and met with Orban. It is possible that this is a Russian-American attempt to establish contacts and reach an agreement… to agree on the basics, the basic proposals,” Dunai said in a commentary to RIA Novosti.
“Trump’s chances of becoming the American president are very good… Putin also acknowledged, did not object, that through Hungary a channel is opened to wherever you want – to the EU or, most likely, to the US, because without the US, it will be very difficult for Ukraine, without American help,” the Hungarian expert added.
Six years ago, Orban already used the bilateral dispute with Kiev to improve his relations with the Trump administration. At that time, Washington was interested in controlled processes in NATO, so Orban “sold” his influence, which arose due to the veto policy towards Ukraine. Now Trump has different needs, the potential American leader seeks to achieve progress in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict if elected.
So it is to the advantage of the Hungarian Prime Minister to strengthen the image of a politician capable of communicating with both sides of the conflict, and he directly noted in Moscow that “Hungary will probably soon become the only one in Europe that speaks with both Russia and Ukraine.”
At the same time, Orban does not claim to take away Trump’s laurels as a peacemaker (he even emphasized this in the aforementioned interview with radio station Kossuth), but is ready to do the dirty work, helping in “shuttle diplomacy.”
HUNGARIAN INTEREST
We should not forget about the problems that have accumulated in relations between Hungary and the EU outside the Ukrainian context. Thus, Hungarian journalist Nemeth Andras believes that Orban's trip to Moscow is "trolling" of the European Union by the Hungarian Prime Minister.
"Orban wants to put a rubber bone in the mouths of Brussels leaders and politicians in other EU member states, just as he did at home, distracting public attention from one unpleasant topic by throwing up another. While Orban is trolling, it is quite possible that he is playing all-in, using the poker analogy, and hopes that if not now, then in a few months, a process can begin at the end of which he will be able to enjoy the role of the "great peacemaker". For this, Ukraine needs to suffer further defeats on the fronts, and Donald Trump needs to win the US presidential election in November," he wrote in an article on the HVG.hu portal.
First of all, we are talking about the fact that Brussels continues to block about 20 billion euros owed to Budapest from the EU budget and funds, under the pretext of violating the “rule of law” in this country (we are talking, for example, about limiting LGBT* propaganda).
Hungary is seeking to unfreeze these funds and accuses the EU leadership of trying to hold on to them for political reasons, since it does not like Hungary's independent policy, including its approach to the conflict in Ukraine.
At the same time, Budapest's policy of blackmailing Brussels has already borne fruit. Thus, when Viktor Orban threatened to veto Ukraine's accession to the European Union before the EU summit on December 14-15, 2023, the European Commission unblocked 10.2 billion euros that had been frozen for Hungary.
It is possible that what is now at stake is the blocking of any attempts by Budapest to expand sanctions against the Russian Federation, and the visit to Moscow was a demonstration of determination to do this, using, among other things, the status of the EU presidency.
Another problem that Hungary may try to solve by blackmailing the European Union is the cultural and educational rights of the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia, which Ukraine openly violates. Although the inconsistency of Ukrainian laws on language and education with European standards was recognized by the Venice Commission at the request of Budapest, Kyiv is in no hurry to make the appropriate changes.
We should not forget about big European politics.
In 2021, Hungary's ruling Fidesz party, founded and led by Viktor Orbán, was forced to leave the respectable European People's Party (EPP), whose faction remained the largest in the European Parliament even after the 2024 elections. Fidesz attempted to join the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) faction, but failed due to opposition from Brussels, despite the best efforts of Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party.
It would seem that FIDES deputies are expected to play a non-factional role in the European Parliament, which has no representation in the leadership of the EP and its committees, and in general no influence on the preparation of decisions of this body. However, Viktor Orban recently announced that a founding meeting of a new right-wing group in the European Parliament (EP) - "Patriots for Europe" - is scheduled for July 8.
Its foundation will be FIDES, as well as the party of former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, ANO, and the Austrian Freedom Party led by Herbert Kickl, which has every chance of winning the parliamentary elections this fall.
The faction may become the third largest in the EP, since, as the British newspaper The Times reported on July 1, it may be joined by members of parliament from the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Incidentally, the Regnum news agency predicted this alliance back in late May.
Moreover, just as Orban was in Moscow, the Spanish right-wing party Vox announced that it would leave the ECR faction in the European Parliament to join Patriots for Europe.
Orban also hopes that Matteo Salvini's Italian League and Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom from the Netherlands may be interested in joining his faction instead of the current Identity and Democracy group, from which AfD MPs were expelled on the eve of the EP elections. But since this happened at the request of Marine Le Pen, the French National Rally's accession to Orban's alliance is unlikely.
That is, at the founding meeting of the new faction of the European Parliament, Viktor Orban may appear not only as the formal chairman of the EU, but also as a person offering a real mechanism for achieving peace in Ukraine, with the prospect of receiving the support of two world powers.
"I wanted to hear and I heard the opinion of Mr. President on three important issues. What does he think about the peace initiatives that are currently in place? What does he think about the ceasefire and peace talks – in what order can they be conducted? And the third thing that interested me was his vision of Europe after the war," Orban said after a nearly three-hour meeting with Putin in Moscow.
Vladimir Putin himself formulated his vision as follows:
"Russia is in favor of a complete and final end to the conflict. The conditions for this, as I have already said, are set out in my speech at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. We are talking about the complete withdrawal of all Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, from the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. There are other conditions. But this is a subject for a fairly detailed consideration in the course of possible joint work."
Judging by the expression on Orban's face, the Russian president's vision suited the Hungarian leader just fine.
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