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2024-04-09 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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History of the Wunderwaffe. Why the long-awaited F-16s won’t help Ukraine
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Denis Davydov
[REGNUM] By summer, European partners promise to supply Ukraine with the first batch of F-16 fighters, for which Ukrainian pilots are already being trained in Romania, Denmark and the United States. In December, the Netherlands announced the decision to give away the first 18 aircraft, and subsequently increased this number to 24. Together with other promises, the expectation of miracle aircraft constitutes the last point of support in hopes for a “wunderwaffe” capable of providing the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a turning point in the war.
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Now the Ukrainian Air Force has practically nothing to oppose Russian air supremacy, and heavy aerial bombs, modified for the planning regime, are the main horror of ground forces. It was to counter this military technology that Kyiv asked for F-16s, capable of carrying a huge number of different types of weapons.
Ukrainian military experts are vying with each other to prove that the appearance of American fighters can nullify the dominance of the Russian Aerospace Forces over the front line. Although everyone cautiously agrees that this is not a “magic pill.”
Here, apparently, experience is already showing itself: the F-16 is at least the sixth “wunderwaffle” in the overall count and the fourth in a series of “prayers.” And with them everything is always approximately the same: from general rejoicing to quiet disappearance.
Because in fact, there was never any talk about any “turnarounds” - only about lucrative contracts for American weapons manufacturers, which is repeated in the case of super fighters.
And this statement is quite easy to prove.
AIR SHORTAGE
In February of this year, the commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Sergei Naev, promised that the first multifunctional light F-16 fighters would arrive in Ukraine in the spring. And with them - missiles with a range of up to 300-500 km. But this is not certain, since the final decision on the supply configuration is made by the Americans.
The fighter was designed as a platform for aircraft weapons. You can simultaneously “attach” a whole set of missiles to it and use it for different purposes: destroy bridges and headquarters, destroy drones and missiles, fight enemy aircraft and ships. Even perform the functions of an attack aircraft on the front line, attacking tanks. Manufacturing company Lockheed Martin has developed more than 3,300 mount configurations for more than 180 types of weapons. She also makes ammunition.
When they say that an airplane is old, this is disingenuous; it has been modernized and improved many times and is very common in the world. The manufacturer declares that new versions of the F-16 can be used until 2060. And the Ukrainians hope that they will be given long-range JASSM missiles with the ability to hit targets deep in Russian territory. Or, at a minimum, straighten out the “skew” in the sky. And he has long been critical.
In the spring of 2022, according to The Military Balance, Ukraine was armed with 71 Su-27/MiG-29 fighters, 14 Su-24M bombers and 31 Su-25 attack aircraft. A year later, half remained; as of February 2023, the United States estimated the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at 60 aircraft and 32 helicopters. They were partially compensated by the supply of Soviet aviation, which remained in the armies of Eastern European countries. But the situation does not stand still, planes and helicopters continue to fall, and the Ukrainian Air Force constantly experiences a shortage of aviation.
WONDER BIRDS
American aircraft are unlikely to cover the need for 80–100 fighters, especially since they will be produced in several units and not in large quantities. But they must take over the functions that were performed by the Soviet Su-27 and MiG-29, as well as partially by the Su-24M bombers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, as you know, have Western-made ammunition, which is now being launched from Soviet equipment. With the help of the F-16, this can be done much more efficiently.
For example, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, which so far only have the Ukrainian Navy, are integrated with the fighter. It is much more efficient to launch AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles from an aircraft, which Ukraine uses from ground-based NASAMS air defense systems. From the air they can destroy targets at distances of up to 150 km.
The list includes the anti-radar AGM-88 HARM, which is aimed at the radars of anti-aircraft missile systems. “The effectiveness of using HARM from Soviet MiG-29s does not exceed 15–20%. They can be used more accurately with the F-16 if the aircraft is equipped with an AN/ASQ-213 follow-up station. It helps the missile hit the target if the locator of the enemy air defense system changes frequencies. Then you can hit the target with one missile, rather than launching several,” says aviation expert and leading researcher at the Kiev National Aviation University Valery Romanenko.
But the most important thing is the possibility of hitting Russian aircraft in order to prevent them from being bombed. To do this, the F-16 must be equipped with modified radars and appropriate weapons, and then, Kyiv experts dream, they will be able to destroy the enemy “in dozens, maybe hundreds.”
How it will all play out in reality is another matter.
Even the one-time appearance of 20-30 “Litaks” will not provide the desired advantage, since the Russian army, naturally, is preparing for new situations. At first, the “wunderwaffe” can create an overstrain of Russian air defense, as well as slightly reduce the intensity of bombing of the front zone. But it will immediately become the primary goal of the Russian Aerospace Forces. First of all, on the ground.
The only way to save them is to fly from the territory of other countries, using the jump airfields of NATO countries or Moldova, entering the airspace of Ukraine only for a mission. There should also be technical personnel, maintenance equipment, fuel and ammunition. And this puts on the agenda the very interesting issue of attacks on these airfields: Vladimir Putin has already promised this in advance.
Therefore, refusing what was publicly promised to Ukraine is reputationally expensive, but transferring fighters to suit the current configuration of the conflict is impractical. Therefore, it is likely that several F-16 units will take to the skies to ensure everyone's joy. This is not interesting for business, and all supplies to Ukraine are primarily business, and not an attempt to truly help.
WUNDERWAFFE HISTORY
The first Ukrainian “wunderwaffle,” of course, was the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone, which, thanks to advertising, became one of the most famous UAVs in the world. Using it against Donbass since 2018, the Ukrainian Armed Forces posted many videos of air strikes, and civilians, in the wake of this hysteria, called the children Bayraktars and collected money to buy new drones.
But as soon as the Russian Armed Forces appeared on the contact line, the legendary predator disappeared somewhere. Because, if you don’t play with one goal, “Bayraktar” is very slow, vulnerable to air defense and electronic warfare stations. In 2022, about 20 of them were grounded, and the rest of the APUs prefer not to start up. But this is no longer required. According to the SIPRI analytical center, until February 2024, Baykar Makina signed export agreements for the supply of its products with 33 countries.
In Ukraine, Baykar is building a plant with an annual capacity of about 120 units and a service center. Purely entering new markets, adding nothing to the defense capability of Ukraine, which is just working as a testing ground.
The above is highly relevant for American weapons.
After 2014, the first “treasure sword”, the Javelin anti-tank missile system, began to lobby even “Ukraine’s best friend,” Senator John McCain. The Armed Forces of Ukraine had their own good systems, but literally everyone trumpeted about the wonderful properties of the Javelins. And they, along with NLAW, were really useful in the first days of the war. But as soon as the Russian Armed Forces stopped foolishly traveling in convoys, the “wunderwaffe” disappeared just like the “Bayraktar”: an FPV drone carrying a cumulative RPG-7 round costs several times less and is much more effective. But the main thing is that enough Javelins were sold and the advertising was loud enough.
Like the HIMARS MLRS. “Himari” became a truly formidable weapon until, again, the Russian Armed Forces learned not to build personnel in an open place, camouflage headquarters and disperse equipment. And the fact that the MLRS was used primarily for advertising purposes is evidenced by the fact that these complexes were not built into the staffing and organizational structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The installations are at the disposal of the MTR and GUR, focusing on large targets and “hit and run” tactics.
And Ukrainian officials publicly called on the United States to provide Patriots as the main air defense system (and continue to ask to this day). These systems are very expensive, one missile costs about $3 million, but this is exactly what Kyiv needs. And also “Abrams”, which were also given to only a few and asked simply not to go anywhere.
TO WHOM IS MOTHER DEAR?
What unites all these weapons systems?
The fact is that they are all mainly produced by Lockheed Martin, which bought the aviation division from General Dynamics, which makes the Abrams. For it, the war in Ukraine is a goldmine, according to American investigative journalist Lee Fang, company representatives telling investors that it provides “$10 billion in opportunities... before the end of the decade.”
Contracts for the supply of weapons for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and replenishment of US military reserves, supplies for other markets - all this is manna from heaven. Lockheed Martin is the largest recipient of “military” money in the United States, with almost $2.3 billion allocated for it. Other recipients of major Pentagon resupply contracts include Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, BAE Systems and Oshkosh. But smaller firms also feed here.
But the most interesting circumstance was pointed out by Robert Reich, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley, and former US Secretary of Labor. According to him, 47 members of the US Congress and their spouses own shares of defense contractors worth up to $6.7 million. It is logical to assume that the main opponents of assistance to Ukraine are those who have nothing from it. That's why the Lockheed Martin Charitable Foundation regularly spends millions of dollars on donations to members of Congress, gubernatorial campaigns and contributions to charities of the Republican and Democratic parties. Special emphasis on members of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees
If you look at all this as a business, then everything becomes much clearer. F-16 aircraft are not “fire and forget”, but an expensive and technologically advanced thing. Therefore, it is possible to persuade the Europeans to “help Ukraine”, and they can make replacement fighters. But mass production cannot be achieved through these sales, just like with tanks. But more consumables in the form of missiles and bombs, a wide range and advertising of products is a completely different matter.
So the old truth “who cares about war, whose mother is dear” in this case has solid proof - much to the regret of those citizens of Ukraine who believe in “the help of Western partners” and, of course, “I will overcome.”
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Posted by badanov 2024-04-09 00:00||
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