Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] After retreating from the Avdievka area, the Ukrainian army continues to lose fortified lines in the Donetsk direction one after another. According to a statement from the Ministry of Defense, Russian troops succeeded in successively liberating a number of settlements lying north and west of Avdievka.
Ukrainian troops were driven out of the settlements of Severnoe and Lastochkino. Information is also being received about the liberation of the settlements of Orlovka, Tonenkoye and Stepovoye and the advance towards the settlement of Berdychi. According to unconfirmed information, Russian troops were able to gain a foothold on the outskirts of this settlement.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually retreating towards the north and west, sometimes snapping back with individual local counterattacks, reported a Regnum news agency source located directly in the Donetsk direction.
“Sometimes there are attempts to go on the attack, to pounce, to try to dislodge our troops from newly occupied positions. All without any particular success. These are not even counterattacks, but rather attempts to slow down our progress,” the publication’s interlocutor said.
In an effort to stop the advance of Russian troops, the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is throwing its last reserves into battle. In particular, American Abrams tanks were used for the first time in the Avdievka direction, which were kept in reserve until the very end. However, an attempted counterattack using American armored vehicles ultimately only resulted in the loss of one of the tanks.
Similar counterattacks are being launched in other areas, but also to no avail.
The offensive in the Avdievka area allows, firstly, to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces back from Donetsk and drive the enemy out of positions used for shelling the capital of the DPR. Secondly, the ongoing offensive does not allow the retreating units of the Ukrainian army to regroup and withdraw in order.
Also, Russian troops are delivering powerful attacks on the rear of the Ukrainian group in the Donetsk direction. Enemy positions in the populated areas of Novoselovka and Ocheretino come under attack.
According to data from the field, this is where the new defensive line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces should pass.
“As far as I know, Ukrainians began to dig in in the Novoselovka area in the fall, when the attack on Avdievka began. That is, even then it was assumed that there would be a retreat. Actually, our troops are now advancing along the area between the former line of defense and the future one. They simply have nowhere to gain a foothold in the vicinity of Avdievka,” adds IA Regnum’s interlocutor.
On the other hand, even despite the high pace of the offensive, Russian troops are in no hurry to force the advance and are thoroughly entrenched in the lines left by the enemy.
Ukrainian sources admit that the success of the Russian offensive is ensured by total superiority in artillery and aviation. Dozens of airstrikes are carried out almost daily on the positions of Ukrainian troops. At the same time, the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot conduct adequate counter-battery combat due to a “shell famine” caused by a reduction in arms supplies from NATO countries.
NEW FRONT LINE
The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces explains the retreat near Avdievka by the need to withdraw troops to new defensive lines, as well as to rotate troops. This statement is partly true: earlier, the 110th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which had been on the line of combat contact for two years without rotation, was withdrawn from the Donetsk direction.
But statements about a defense line being created in the rear raise questions.
On the one hand, photographs are published on social networks indicating that somewhere in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, defensive structures are actually being created, trenches and trenches are being dug. In front of them are built barriers of so-called dragon teeth and barbed wire, as well as minefields and anti-tank ditches.
However, firstly, it is not entirely clear whether we are talking about creating a continuous front line or about some local events.
“Beyond Avdievka, no field lines of fortifications have been built to this day. I saw our soldiers in minks in the middle of a field being attacked by Russian drones,” wrote Ukrainian military journalist Yuriy Butusov on his blog.
Other experts also note that even those defensive structures that are being built in the Donetsk direction, to put it mildly, do not look reliable. And while trenches and shelters for infantry can be considered generally adequate, fortifications designed to stop armored vehicles do not inspire confidence. It looks more like the photographs are being published on the Internet to reassure an audience that is clearly not happy about the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
It is worth noting that the terrain in the Avdievka area is absolutely not suitable for defense. On a predominantly flat, treeless terrain, any positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces lie in full view of the Russian troops. Soldiers really have absolutely no place to hide from drones, and armored vehicles from artillery fire.
Defense in this direction was possible as long as Ukrainian troops held the residential areas of Avdievka and industrial zones. Now it is necessary to look for new lines of defense. The command of the Ukrainian troops "Tavria" declares that the new front will be built along the Durnaya River - the only natural line in the area.
“The defense there should be facilitated by the relief itself: there is a cascade of reservoirs, and this was the chosen priority. Thus, units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Avdievka direction continue to conduct a defensive operation,” the headquarters of the group of Ukrainian troops reported.
It can be assumed that withdrawal beyond the water barrier is planned on other sectors of the front. In particular, in the area of the settlements of Krasnogorovka and Nevelskoye. After the liberation of Mar'inka (to the south) and Avdievka (to the north), Ukrainian Armed Forces units in this area may be surrounded. Therefore, the retreat option seems quite logical. Although the “patriotic public” in Kyiv will clearly not be happy with this scenario.
While the West is increasingly reducing arms supplies, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing the ability to hold a new front. This fact, in particular, was noted by Zev Feintush, an intelligence analyst at the security company Global Guardian, in an interview with Newsweek.
According to the expert, if the US Congress does not agree on aid supplies to Kyiv in the foreseeable future, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to stabilize the front.
“If the US aid bill is not passed soon, there will be more Avdievkas as Russia uses this opportunity to consolidate its gains near Donetsk,” Feintush said.
Therefore, the creation of new defensive lines by the Ukrainian army in the future will not be able to stop the advance of the Russian army. Following the example of how the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed near Avdievka, defense units that are now being built in the Ukrainian rear will also be opened and destroyed.
However, if Ukrainian troops have been preparing to defend Avdievka for many years, the new defensive line is being built hastily and with a lack of funds. Therefore, Kyiv’s bet on maintaining this line looks like a losing one.
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