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2024-02-24 Europe
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There will be no war. Russia's Western neighbors are beginning to come to their senses
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Viktor Lavrinenko
[REGNUM] News feeds are bursting with new statements from Western politicians broadcasting about a “possible attack by Russia” and, accordingly, about a war with it. However, in some places the voice of sanity is beginning to awaken.
In particular, high-ranking officials from the state apparatus of Poland and Finland almost simultaneously declared their reluctance to place American weapons on their territory, and the head of the Latvian army claims that the threat from Russia is not as great as everyone is saying. The explanation is simple: as they approached the edge of the abyss, some representatives of NATO countries bordering Russia began to open their eyes - and now they are trying to crawl away from this abyss.
HOW THE POLES AND FINNS CALMED DOWN AND STOPPED LOVING THE AMERICAN BOMB
The deployment of American nuclear weapons on Polish territory is the fixed idea of the Law and Justice party. Last year it lost power in Poland, but PiS’s successors, who are diligently eradicating its legacy in other areas, did not seem to disavow the idea of deploying nuclear weapons. And the other day, Polish General Jaroslaw Kraszewski said that Warsaw should receive nuclear weapons in a few years - as part of the NATO Nuclear Sharing program.
In response to the remark that maintaining such weapons is very expensive, the general noted that “security has no price.” Nuclear Sharing is a program by NATO member states to host and store the American nuclear arsenal in Europe. It provides that the governments of these countries may also participate in planning and exercises related to these types of weapons.
However, a few days after Kraszewski's statement, Polish Deputy Defense Minister Stanislaw Wzętek spoke out. “I would like this element (nuclear weapons – editor’s note) not to exist on the territory of our country,” he said.
From his point of view, the presence of nuclear weapons in Poland under current conditions would only “increase the level of threat.” According to Wziętek, the arrival of nuclear weapons will lead to “crossing a certain threshold” and Poland will “never feel safe.” He also expressed the hope that both Russia and Western countries would not want to use such weapons, because this would be the beginning of a war leading to total destruction.
“Perhaps Warsaw is impressed by the presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus,” says political scientist Georgy Bovt.
At the same time, the topic of nuclear weapons was raised in Finland, which officially joined NATO last year. A discussion broke out in the Finnish parliament's defense committee about whether it is permissible for it to appear on the territory of the state. So far, Finnish legislation and international agreements prohibit this.
However, representatives of the National Coalition, True Finns, the Swedish People's Party (these political organizations are part of the current ruling coalition), as well as the Center Party spoke out in favor of changing the laws and making the import of nuclear weapons possible. But this is vehemently opposed by members of the Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the Union of Left Forces.
The chairman of the parliamentary defense commission, Jukka Kopra (National Coalition), believes that this issue needs to be clarified “openly and widely.” In turn, commission member Mika Kari (Social Democratic Party) called Finland's current position as a country that abstains from nuclear weapons on its territory a “good basis” that should be adhered to in the future. According to Kari, placing American nuclear weapons near Russia would be unwise.
Finally, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, who is also the head of the National Coalition, dotted the i's on this issue.
In an interview with the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, he said that Finnish authorities currently do not see an immediate threat of attack from Russia. At the same time, according to Orpo, “we must effectively deter Russia from aggression against Europe.” The Finnish prime minister assures that Russia “is a country that has changed deeply, has become extremely aggressive,” and “against such a threat we cannot rely only on US help.” Orpo added that his country is prepared for a potential conflict, because it can, if necessary, mobilize at least 800 thousand reservists.
“Finland has introduced a holistic defense model, including military security, as well as food, energy, and protection of key infrastructure,” boasted the head of the Finnish government. At the same time, Orpo emphasized that Finland does not intend to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory. In his opinion, nuclear weapons already deployed in other NATO countries are sufficient to ensure security.
ALL FOR THE SAKE OF MONEY “FOR DEFENSE”
Currently, the majority of Russian experts have so lost faith in the possibility of at least some pragmatic steps towards Russia on the part of NATO countries that they are trying to discern some kind of catch in these statements by the Poles and Finns.
Kaliningrad political scientist Alexander Nosovich recalls that at one time the Law and Justice party advocated for the transfer of US nuclear weapons from Germany to Poland, which at the end of last year went into opposition. In addition, Donald Trump spoke approvingly about this initiative during his presidency.
PiS and Trump, according to the political scientist, had a common goal - to create an alternative to German power and to weaken Germany’s position by strengthening Poland. The Civic Platform, which won the elections, is a pro-German party and sees the future of Poland in symbiosis with Germany. “American nuclear weapons in Germany are becoming another subject of fierce struggle within Poland, which is split in two,” Nosovich believes.
However, if you wish, you can find other statements by influential persons “from the other side”, sending not-so-disguised signals of a desire for de-escalation.
Thus, a commonplace in the reasoning of Western propagandists has become the thesis that “after Ukraine, the Baltic countries may be next.” In these countries themselves, the hysteria about the “Russian threat” reigns terrifying - if you believe the statements of the politicians there, “aggression” can begin almost at any moment.
And against such an emotionally charged background, the commander of the Latvian army, Leonid Kalnins, declares that he wants to “calm down” the general public of his state. Commenting on the increasingly numerous recent statements by NATO politicians about a possible Russian attack on the alliance in the future from three to ten years, Kalnins expressed his skepticism towards such prophecies.
He spoke quite openly in the sense that such “scaremongers” are voiced in order to scrape more money from the taxpayer’s pockets to support the Kyiv regime.
“All statements and forecasts about the possibility of war are aimed at mobilizing Western society, which is beginning to get tired of supporting Ukraine. “I would like to say to the people of Latvia: don’t worry, all these statements are intended to ensure that Western societies reorient themselves from post-Cold War relaxation to a willingness to invest in defense,” Kalnins said.
However, realizing that he had “gave away the base,” the commander immediately added: it is still necessary to invest in “defense.” However, he still did not calm down and returned to the key thesis: “I want to reassure Latvian society and say clearly: we talk too much about the possibility of war. In fact, the situation is no more threatening than it was ten years ago. We have always perceived Russia as a threat."
THE DESIRE FOR ESCALATION IS FADING
A little earlier, in December 2023, the Secretary of State of the Polish Ministry of Defense Pavel Zalewski made a similar statement.
According to him, “Putin, in his own way, is a rational politician.” According to Zalevsky, the Russian president “is not crazy and will not risk attacking NATO territory, the territory of the Baltic countries - especially considering that the military presence of the alliance on the eastern flank is growing and will strengthen.” The Polish official concluded that “Russia’s attack on NATO countries is impossible,” and these countries “must do everything to prevent Russia from winning the war against Ukraine.”
Zalewski's words fit well with Stanislaw Wzętek's recent statement that nuclear weapons are not required on Polish soil. In other words, Warsaw is ready to continue to fight with Russia through the hands of Kyiv, but only in such a way that this conflict continues to be limited in nature and in no case spills out beyond the borders of Ukraine.
According to Western media, one of the most striking moments of the recently concluded Munich Security Conference was the speech of US Republican Senator from Ohio James David Vance.
This 39-year-old associate of Donald Trump, as Reuters writes, “gave the audience something like a cold shower.” Vance accused the European Union of not being proactive enough to defend itself, but instead relying on the “American security blanket.”
Moreover, Vance said that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not pose an existential threat to NATO, and that the United States should shift its attention from Europe to what he believes is a much more worrying situation in East Asia.
While he said he still doesn't expect Trump to leave NATO if he returns to the White House, the senator stressed that Europeans will have to work much harder to become militarily self-sufficient. “It’s not just about the money spent. How many mechanized brigades can Germany field tomorrow? Maybe just one?” Vance asked the audience.
All statements of this kind confirm that the European Union’s desire to continue the conflict is slowly fading away. Many in both the EU and the US are seriously afraid of a head-on military confrontation with Russia and are trying to prevent it.
We can expect that such sentiments will grow in the near future and one day develop into concrete actions - especially if Donald Trump comes to power.
At some point, and it is possible that in the fairly near future, the West will agree to stop hostilities in Ukraine and begin peace negotiations. Simply because the continuation of the conflict is fraught with increased military risks for the West itself. But they are afraid to fight with a nuclear power.
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Posted by badanov 2024-02-24 00:00||
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Posted by Abu Uluque 2024-02-24 13:07||
2024-02-24 13:07||
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Posted by Abu Uluque 2024-02-24 13:08||
2024-02-24 13:08||
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00:50 Skidmark
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