Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] Polish authorities are restricting civil aviation flights in the east of the country, just along the border with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.
In Warsaw, the innovations were justified by the “dangerous situation on the eastern border” and possible “unplanned military actions,” assuring that they were acting for reasons of “ensuring national security.” However, no specifics were provided.
On the one hand, restrictions may be related to the NATO exercise “Steady Defender,” which takes place, among other things, in Poland from January 22 to May 31. However, the wording “dangerous situation” can also be explained by other reasons.
Over the past years, Poland's eastern borders have been constantly used by NATO aircraft to conduct reconnaissance missions.
For example, on Monday, January 29, both the Boeing E-3A reconnaissance aircraft, assigned to the command of NATO forces in Europe, and the American Boeing P-8A reconnaissance aircraft flew along the borders of Russia and Belarus.
It should be noted that NATO aviation also uses the airspace of the Baltic countries and Romania, but here we are not talking about creating a no-fly zone. So there is another explanation for the initiative of the Polish authorities.
AVIATION COVER
On the eve of reports about a special flight regime near the eastern borders of Poland, the publication Rzeczpospolita published the results of a survey. Respondents were asked to answer the question whether they agree that the air defense systems of the Polish Armed Forces take part of the territory of Ukraine under protection.
According to the survey results, 69.3% of Polish citizens are in favor of the authorities holding negotiations with the leaders of NATO countries and Kiev on the extension of air defense systems to the Ukrainian border area. The former commander of the Polish Ground Forces, ex-Deputy Minister of Defense of the country, General Waldemar Skrzypczak, also spoke in favor of such a proposal.
“The North Atlantic Alliance must allocate an area of responsibility and inform the Russians that every missile that flies towards the Ukrainian border with Poland will be shot down,” he said.
A similar opinion was expressed by the former head of the National Security Bureau Stanislav Kozei. From his point of view, Poland should consider the possibility of reaching an agreement with NATO and Ukraine on ensuring air defense of the territory located on the border of the two countries.
A reasonable question arises: what exactly does Poland plan to defend in Ukraine? Previously, Russian strikes on Ukrainian Armed Forces targets did not affect Poland—mostly Ukrainian air defense missiles fell on the country’s territory, and even then infrequently.
It is reasonable to assume that Warsaw is considering the possibility of covering any objects on the territory of Ukraine. Moreover, we can also talk about certain objects that may appear in Ukraine in the future. After all, such proposals had not been received from Warsaw before, and the Polish authorities were generally satisfied with striking the territory of a neighboring state.
The synchronous publication of surveys and statements by competent persons may be preparation for Poland’s limited involvement in the conflict, military expert Alexander Mikhailovsky noted in a commentary to Regnum. The likely reason for the activation of the Polish Air Force and Air Defense is the planned deployment of F-16 fighters in Western Ukraine.
“Our officials have repeatedly said that if NATO countries provide airfields to Ukraine, they will become our legitimate target. This is associated with delays in deliveries. If you equip airfields in Ukraine, then they need protection. Personally, I don’t believe that the Poles will join their Ukrainian brothers, but in principle such a scenario is likely,” the expert noted.
In October 2023, it became known that Poland would purchase six batteries of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system from the United States in addition to the two existing ones. The contract with American industrialists also provides for the creation in Poland of service, repair and production facilities for servicing anti-aircraft systems.
Poland may well place these complexes in close proximity to the borders of Ukraine. In this case, you can calculate a zone somewhere 100–150 km from the border that falls under their cover. In particular, it will include an air base in Lutsk and an airport in Lviv, where aircraft can be stationed. Theoretically, Poland can justify the need to deploy anti-aircraft systems by the need to protect its own air borders and, as a bonus, NATO’s air borders.
Statements by eminent military personnel and opinion polls are necessary information processing, which is carried out without fail when implementing such large-scale and risky plans. Officials are still speaking with caution about the need to “protect borders.”
In its publication, Rzeczpospolita provides a comment from the Polish Ministry of Defense. The department notes that the possible covering of part of Ukrainian territory by Polish air defenses does not correspond to the position of both the Polish government and the NATO alliance.
“Possible cover of part of Ukraine by allied air defense is an extremely complex issue. On the one hand, this will require possibly difficult political agreements within NATO. On the other hand, this will create a number of military and operational problems,” the publication writes.
However, Poland in any case will not be drawn into the conflict without the consent of its NATO partners. The deployment of anti-aircraft systems in the border zone may require additional supplies of missiles, financial investments and, of course, security guarantees.
Simply put, Warsaw is ready to discuss the issue of covering Ukrainian territory, but only with guarantees from senior comrades.
UKRAINE BELIEVES IN FIGHTER JETS AND MISSILES
The topic of supplying military aircraft, related to Polish plans, is one of the most discussed in Kyiv. Today, the Dutch Ministry of Defense announced preparations for the transfer of additional six F-16s to Ukraine. The department said that they will be in addition to the 24 fighters already promised. They hope for a new miracle weapon, they wait for it, they believe in it. Although the delivery date is constantly shifting and is not disclosed by officials, it is known that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces receive fighters, they will also receive missiles.
“In further military assistance packages, Ukraine expects F-16 aircraft and missiles with a range of hitting targets of 300-500 kilometers, which will allow the Ukrainian Defense Forces to achieve even greater success on the battlefield,” said the commander of the Joint Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sergei Naev.
This statement has caused some confusion. We are talking about either air-to-air missiles or cruise missiles. This seemingly insignificant clause leaves room for interpretation.
The most advanced air-to-air missile available to NATO countries and ready for delivery is the AIM-120 AMRAAM missile. It has a significantly shorter destruction range: from 50 to 180 km, depending on the modification. In theory, it is these munitions that Kiev can obtain, since they are already used by NASAMS systems in service with the Ukrainian air defense forces.
The American advanced AIM-260 JATM missiles have a greater range of use, but their tests have not yet been completed and it is extremely unlikely that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive them earlier than the American Air Force. Therefore, most likely, the Ukrainian military was talking about a different type of ammunition, namely, “cruise missiles.”
“I will assume that they were talking about the AGM-158 JASSM air-to-ground cruise missiles, which the Western press has long promised Kyiv. The ranges there are generally suitable, so, most likely, the Kyiv military made a reservation, which speaks of their qualifications. Or in this way they intimidate in a certain sense. But they will try to regain partial air supremacy in any case,” notes Alexander Mikhailovsky.
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