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2024-01-25 Africa North
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A new turn in Africa: the 'French gendarme' goes over to the side of Russia
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Viktor Vasiliev
[REGNUM] On January 24, Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Déby flew to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.For society in Chad itself, for the entire subregion and for France, which maintains influence in N'Djamena, the visit of the Chadian leader to Moscow is of great symbolic and strategic importance. The Western expert community and media specializing in Africa are following this visit as closely as possible.
Continued from Page 5
As the President of Chad stated during negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation, “this visit is historic.” Indeed, despite the fact that Chad and Russia have a very long and long-standing relationship, the last visit of the president of this country to Moscow took place in 1968, when the first leader of the independent country was Francois Tombalbaye.
We can say briefly about the negotiations themselves: everything most important and necessary was said. And this indirectly indicates that Chad in the near future, to one degree or another, may join the Russian strategy in the region. This refers to a regional alliance aimed at solving security problems - the “Alliance of Sahel States”, implemented jointly with Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.
The President of Chad also expressed condolences over the crash of the Il-76 plane in the Belgorod region. This can be seen as an important signal of support for Russia from the African leader in the current geopolitical confrontation. Otherwise, statements regarding armed confrontation between the two countries are simply not made at such high-level negotiations.
For his part, Vladimir Putin paid tribute to Mahamat Deby's father Idris Deby, which is of great importance in the East and Africa. This is a significant and correct step, even with very controversial assessments of Deby’s role as a political leader.
The most important political point and, perhaps, the key goal of Mahamat Deby’s visit is the political support received from Russia for the ambitions of the young leader for the presidency.
As Vladimir Putin said, “We are glad that you managed to hold a referendum on the Constitution. I am confident that the general elections will be held at a high level in the near future. We are glad that you have managed and continue to stabilize the situation in the country. We will contribute to this in every possible way.”
Recall that Debi Jr. was appointed head of the Transitional Military Council for a period of 18 months from April 21, 2021, after the death of his 68-year-old father. This process was unconstitutional; power should have passed to the head of the civilian government, but was usurped by the military. At the same time, the National Assembly of Chad, which did not have any significant influence, was dispersed.
The junta then, through dialogue involving the opposition and traditional community leaders, extended the transition period for another 24 months. And most importantly: according to the agreements reached, Deby will have the right to run for president in the upcoming elections.
"FRENCH GENDARME" IN AFRICA
Chad is of great importance as a “power unit” for the system of influence that France has built with its former colonies since the time of Charles de Gaulle. This system of patron-client relations is also called “Fransafrique”.
For its overall sustainability, for example, Côte d'Ivoire has a special economic significance, Gabon - diplomatic and cultural. And Chad is important precisely from a military point of view. This has been the case since the “last dictator” of the Dark Continent, Marshal Idriss Deby, came to power in the country in 1990. He fell heroically on the battlefield in April 2021.
During his years of rule, the French not only localized their own best-trained combat units in Chad (currently more than 2 thousand soldiers), but also built special relationships with the local armed forces and intelligence services. The latter became not only the strongest in the Central African region, but also a kind of informal continuation and “ichtamnet” of the French side.
Suffice it to recall the numerous wars and crisis situations on the borders with Libya and Sudan, military coups and civil war in the Central African Republic, preparations for a coup in Equatorial Guinea, and the fight against jihadism in neighboring Niger and Nigeria.
What all these rather different stories have in common is the significant influence and role of the Chadian military and intelligence services. And by a strange coincidence, the interests of the “Deby clan” almost always coincided with the interests of the French foreign policy department.
In exchange for such loyalty of the “French gendarme in Africa,” the armed contingent of France, in particular the French Mirages, more than once saved N’Djamena and Idris Deby from defeat by a coalition of the country’s northern clans and the armed opposition.
And even after the death of Idris Deby, this tradition seemed to have been preserved.
The fact is that after the arrival of the military, the Deby clan retained power in the country. It was in the person of Mahamat Debi, who grossly violated the Constitution, that the military began to rule the country after the death of the permanent leader.
This happened, in general, even without direct support from the French. Macron only ensured the process of legitimizing the military junta abroad and before the interregional community. First of all, to the Economic Community of Central African Countries (ECOCAC).
The system of power built by Idris Deby has been preserved.
Here it is worth saying a few additional words. Despite the fact that the Zaghawa clan makes up less than 1% of the population in Chad and that from the outside the system of power built by the deceased president resembled a classic personalist dictatorship, in reality everything turned out to be somewhat more complicated.
Let's say more, all the “childologists” predicted the onset of chaos in the country after Debi’s death. It was also predicted that instability would increase due to internal contradictions and the external struggle of regional and global players for influence in the key region of the continent.
And they were all wrong. No chaos happened, but moderate changes in the country planned by the national elite began. What liberal political scientists thought of as a one-man dictatorship turned out to be a complex and fairly stable system of checks and balances.
As Debi’s son quipped in an interview: “It must be said that all the forecasts of the so-called childologists predicted chaos in the event of the sudden disappearance of the marshal. None of this happened and I thank God for his goodwill, our army for its professionalism and our people for their maturity.”
In short, using the example of Chad, we can conclude that political systems in Africa, for all their apparent simplicity and obviousness, should not be treated unequivocally. Most often, many complex processes are hidden behind the external façade.
STATES COME INTO PLAY
For France, a lot has changed in the last year, and it has changed fundamentally.
The country has lost the tacit support of the United States in the Central and West Africa region. Paris as a younger brother no longer suits the States - it has become too arbitrary and too toxic for African communities. The general loss of positions and the “loss of face” of Paris in the region also play a role in the change in relations. The French are no longer welcome partners, especially in the wider society and information environment.
The authorities of any African countries, including those that are quite pro-French, have to take this into account. Today, any government in one way or another flirts with a pan-African and anti-French agenda in order to stay in power. And all these processes are partly fueled by the American media and the expert community, which are actively using the anti-colonial agenda.
It seems that Chad will not be an exception in this sense. The recent appointment of oppositionist Suxe Masra as prime minister in the new civilian government of the opposition, which Idriss Deby has always been known for, also speaks in favor of some flirting with the Americans, as opposed to an unequivocal bet on Paris. Immediately after the adoption of the new Constitution and just before the New Year, the oppositionist returned to Chad.
What is noteworthy is that Suxe never hid his close and trusting relationship with the US Embassy and representatives of the American expert community responsible for African affairs. The opposition “Party of Change,” created by him and positioning itself as a new political force uniting dissatisfied urban youth, took an active part in the street riots a year ago.
The protests in N'Djamena in the fall of 2022 were also marked by violently suppressed attempts by the authorities to attack French soldiers stationed at the Athy airfield on the outskirts of the Chadian capital.
Chad is considered by the States not only as an opportunity to annoy the Chinese, but also as a systemic platform from which they will play in other areas that are important to them - primarily Sudan and Libya.
The new US strategy in West Africa is being implemented not only simultaneously with the fall of Francefrique, but also at the expense of its former ally. The American side is actively promoting this, and on this short track, oddly enough, the United States has common interests with Russia.
Before achieving intermediate success in the form of appointing their young protege Syuxe Masr as head of the civil government, the Americans tested the strength of the regime of the young Deby more than once or twice.
For example, there was a strong information campaign clearly directed against his power.
A number of African media outlets have published information that Chad is negotiating with the Mossad and the Israeli Foreign Ministry. In exchange for housing refugees from Palestine, the African state is allegedly promised generous financial subsidies and security assistance.
Chad has good relations with Israel, that's a fact. But the population of Chad, to put it mildly, is not on Israel's side in the Middle East conflict. And such rumors, and even more so decisions, could result in mass unrest on the streets of N'Djamena and new problems for the newly formed Deby government.
PROSPECTS FOR THE AFRIKA KORPS
Considering all of the above, it is quite possible to assume that the Chadian leader’s trip to Moscow was not due to a good life. He fully understands that Paris has weakened, and in the upcoming battle for the presidency, he may lose his power without having a stronger player behind him.
Another symbolic moment is the time of arrival in snowy Moscow. No sooner had the Prime Minister of neighboring Niger, Ali Lamine Zeina, left the Russian capital than the Chadian delegation arrived.
According to the author’s insider information, the head of the country throughout 2023 considered the option of severing relations with France and subsequent rapprochement with Turkey or Russia.
Then those around him managed to dissuade him, but, apparently, only for a while. Now that Chad is surrounded by Russian allies - the Central African Republic in the south, Niger in the east and Libya in the north - N'Djamena in any case needs to establish closer and more friendly relations with Moscow.
So this visit can already be considered no less fateful than the visit of the head of Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traore, to the Russia-Africa summit in July last year.
Separately, it is worth noting among the participants in the negotiations on the Russian side, Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who then met separately with his Chadian counterpart.
Indirectly, this may also indicate the possible imminent accession of N'Djamena to the Russian strategy in the Sahel region. And, as a consequence, the departure of the French from the country and the appearance of the Russian “African Corps” in N’Djamena.
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