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2024-01-16 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Ukrainian Perspective: Invasion of Ukraine: January 15, 2024
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Worth noting, korrespondent.net has compiled its Invasion of Ukraine series into separate months, beginning May 9th, 2023. Linked in the title
 [Korrespondent] 22:38 The enemy may be preparing a repeated large-scale offensive on several sectors of the front. In addition, the Kremlin does not abandon its intentions to capture Kyiv. For more details, see the article Landing to the rear and a new offensive: what the Russian Federation is planning.
21:49 Zaluzhny said that he had a telephone conversation with the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charles Brown: “Shared the results of the analysis of military operations in 2023 and forecasts for 2024. We exchanged views on issues of mutual strategic interest.”
21:05 The Russians struck New York in the Donetsk region - according to preliminary information, three people were wounded, five more are under the rubble, said the head of the OVA Vadim Filashkin. According to him, the Russian army dropped two guided bombs on the village and hit a three-story house with a rocket, in which the entrance collapsed.
20:08 Europe has three to five years to prepare for the fact that Russia will pose a serious threat to the eastern flank of NATO countries, said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas: “According to our intelligence estimates, this will happen in three to five years, this "will greatly depend on how much we manage to maintain the unity of our position regarding Ukraine."
19:47 Russia has eight A-50 aircraft left in good condition, Budanov said in an interview with the Financial Times. The destruction of such aircraft would likely impact Russia's ability to conduct 24-hour operations and maintain communications in the conflict zone, he said.
19:10 Ukraine and Switzerland are starting preparations for the Global Peace Summit at the leader level, Zelensky said.
18:58 Switzerland will provide Ukraine with 1.5 billion francs (about 1.6 billion euros) of assistance from 2025 to 2028, the country’s President Viola Amgerd said at a joint press conference with Zelensky. She noted that Switzerland places special emphasis on the restoration of Ukraine.
18:47 Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Andrzej Szejna does not rule out a new wave of Ukrainian refugees: “Poland should not be burdened with additional responsibility in the field of migration, because although we wish the Ukrainians victory, in the end, we cannot exclude the possibility that the Russian offensive will lead to "to shift the front to the West and will force millions more Ukrainians to come to Poland, mainly women and children. This will be a huge burden for our country, and Polish society must be prepared for this."
17:51 With the signing of a cooperation agreement with Britain, similar negotiations between Ukraine and Canada intensified, said the Canadian Ambassador in Kiev Natalka Tsmots. According to her, Canada has already handed over a draft agreement to Ukraine.
17:46 Zaluzhny said that he had a telephone conversation with the Chief of the Defense Staff of the Italian Armed Forces, Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, and discussed a number of issues of bilateral military cooperation and exchange of experience. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine invited Admiral Dragone to visit Ukraine and work together at control points and in brigades.
17:40 Speaker of the Southern Defense Forces Natalya Gumenyuk believes that the destruction of Russian A-50 and Il-22 aircraft can delay missile attacks on Ukraine: “It was with the help of the A-50 that the situation with future targets was determined as much as possible. Therefore, we will count on the fact that “such a strike would be quite sensitive and would at least delay future missile attacks.”
17:14 The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicts a new Russian offensive in Ukraine in the coming weeks. Analysts believe that the Russian army will begin it in the east and south of Ukraine when the ground freezes, but due to a lack of forces and personnel, there will most likely not be a large-scale breakthrough.
16:51 NATO denied Bild's information that Germany is allegedly preparing for a possible attack by Russia. The director of the NATO Center of Excellence for Strategic Communication, Janis Sarts, said that “this is not a secret intelligence analysis predicting the situation,” but a scenario for the upcoming exercise. "A training scenario is always an imaginary situation to test military capabilities in a particular area. Previously, the scenarios were completely fictitious, with non-existent countries and geography. Now, existing countries and geography are more applicable," Sarts explained.
16:16 A photo of a Russian Il-22 plane, which was shot down by the Ukrainian Armed Forces the day before, appeared on social networks. Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat noted that the plane was probably able to fly to Anapa, but could not be restored. He also said that the plane was on fire, and among the crew there were wounded, and possibly dead.
“The A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft was and remains a priority target for us. And until today, the destruction of this aircraft seemed an impossible task for the Air Force. And then the Il-22 (air command post) came under attack. Two “bold” ones at once “one goal at a time,” Ignat wrote.
16:07 In the Dniprovsky district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, an X-59 guided aircraft missile was destroyed, the Skhid Air Command reported.
15:26 British Defense Minister Grant Shapps said that the future of Ukraine could be decided this year, “the West must not let it down.”
14:38 The Russians shelled Krasnohorivka, Maryinsk community, Donetsk region - at least one person was killed and one was wounded, said the head of the OVA Vadim Filashkin.
14:13 Zelensky said that he had already arrived in Switzerland on a working visit, plans to meet with the country's leaders and take part in the Davos Forum. The President plans to discuss, in particular, the return of abducted children, sanctions and the search for mechanisms for using frozen Russian assets, cooperation on humanitarian demining, financial support and restoration of Ukraine.
13:49 Russia still receives components and equipment used in the defense industry through “inconspicuous” companies from Finland, Yle reports. One of the companies operates in the Lappeenranta region and, according to customs information, supplied sensors, diesel engines, fuel pumps, and components used in car gearboxes to Russia. Similar Western components were found in Russian equipment destroyed in Ukraine, but not all of this is subject to Western sanctions.
13:20 British intelligence believes that Russia has significantly inflated data on 500 thousand people who allegedly joined the army last year. Analysts also believe that in Russia, “a disproportionate number of people from poor and rural regions” are being recruited to support the war. In addition, there is confirmed evidence that at least five Russians died in the war in Ukraine in 2005 - after Russian authorities allowed school graduates to sign contracts with the army in April 2023.
12:53 Late in the evening of January 14, two Russian aircraft were hit over the Sea of Azov - the A-50 long-range radar detection vessel and the Il-22M11 control post. According to preliminary information, the A-50 fell into the sea, and Il was in the air and tried to get to the nearest airfield, but disappeared from radar in the Kerch area. In Ukraine they call these planes “fat targets.” About how they were able to be eliminated, see the material Special Operation in the Azov Region.
12:42 The DPRK actively supplied ammunition to Russia throughout the fall - we are talking about about a million artillery shells, said Vadim Skibitsky, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense. He clarified that these are mainly 122 and 152 mm shells. As for Russian supplies of ballistic missiles from North Korea, the information is still being clarified, Skibitsky noted.
He also said that Russia now produces about 115-130 strategic missiles per month. In addition, the Russian Federation produces 100-115 operational-tactical class missiles - such as Kh-31, Kh-59, etc.
12:09 In the Mariupol region, the Russian Guard, together with the FSB, began to openly persecute all Protestant churches and religious movements, said Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Pyotr Andryushchenko. In particular, according to him, arrests of members of Jehovah's Witnesses continue right now. And despite the fact that their churches were captured by the Russians from the very beginning of the invasion, open persecution has now begun with arrests, searches, seizure of literature and recognition of them as “extremists”. To date, at least 15 people have been arrested in Mariupol and dozens of copies of religious literature have been confiscated.
11:45 Zaluzhny confirmed that the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and the enemy Il-22 air control center.
11:37 In occupied Melitopol, partisans blew up Russians along with their equipment, reports the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense. The explosion occurred on January 14 on Gogol Street - a Russian UAZ Patriot car was blown up. Four occupiers were injured or killed.
11:01 Russians fired artillery at residential buildings in Stanislav, Kherson region, one person was wounded, OVA reported. Over the previous 24 hours, four people were injured as a result of Russian shelling in the region.
10:52 The Ministry of Defense of Belarus stated that Belarusian military personnel will undergo training on the territory of the Russian Federation with an emphasis on “the experience acquired by the Russian Armed Forces during the conduct of a special military operation.” After completing the training, the Belarusian military as “instructors in the most complex subjects of combat training” will transfer the experience gained to units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus.
10:46 The SBU detained a Wagnerite - a citizen of Belarus, who was preparing sabotage to cut off power to the central regions of Ukraine, including Kiev. He illegally entered the Rivne region from Belarus and, on instructions from the Russian GRU, was supposed to correct air attacks on the energy infrastructure. The attacker was caught red-handed: he was trying to attach several GPS trackers to the supports of power lines supplying the Kyiv agglomeration.
10:27 In Russia, about 30 thousand people volunteer for the army every month, said GUR representative Vadim Skibitsky: “Russians have a motivation to join the army - it’s wages, especially in crisis regions, where there are either low wages or no jobs at all. Russian prisoners of war openly admit that they joined the army because they pay, and he has “a mortgage, a family, and so on.” And this motive today is the main one for those people who voluntarily go to mobilization, sign contracts and fight."
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate, the salaries of Russian military personnel fighting in Ukraine are approximately $2,500-2,850 per month, and for a day of combat there is an additional salary of about $90.
09:51 Russia has focused on missile attacks on locations of the military-industrial complex, headquarters and control systems, but is not achieving its goals, said Vadim Skibitsky, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Educational Institution: “It does not achieve the goals that the Russian Federation sets for itself. Those weapons, "which is used by Russia, in particular the Daggers, are very inaccurate. And, unfortunately, it is mainly the civilian population that suffers from them."
09:19 A North Korean delegation led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs is in Russia on an official visit.
08:48 At night, the Russians hit Manganets with artillery in the Nikopol district of the Dnepropetrovsk region, said the head of the OVA Sergei Lysak. Two pharmacies and a store, two five-story and two private houses, gas pipelines, and power lines were damaged. More than 2,000 families were left without electricity, no people were injured.
08:42 Against the backdrop of reports that appeared about the downing of a Russian A-50 radio reconnaissance aircraft and the damage to an Il-22 bomber, Air Force Commander Nikolai Oleshchuk wrote: “This is for the Dnieper. Burn in hell, nonhumans! PS No details yet.” January 14 was the anniversary of the Russian missile attack on a multi-story building in the Dnieper, which killed 46 people.
08:36 The General Staff announced the estimated losses of the Russian Federation as of the morning of January 15:
- personnel - about 370,980 (+980) people,
- tanks - 6089 (+14),
- armored combat vehicles - 11,322 (+20),
- artillery systems - 8771 (+24),
- MLRS - 958 (+1),
- air defense weapons - 650 (+2),
- aircraft - 329 (+0),
- helicopters - 324 (+0),
- UAV of operational-tactical level - 6865 (+4),
- cruise missiles - 1815 (+1),
- ships/boats - 23 (+0),
- submarines - 1 (+0),
- automotive equipment and tank trucks - 11,698 (+31),
- special equipment - 1356 (+3).
08:01 Australia will scrap 45 MRH-90 Taipan helicopters that Ukraine requested, ABC reports. The country removed them from service in September due to security incidents: four soldiers were killed during training over the summer. In December, Kyiv sent a request to receive Taipan. The Ukrainian community came out to protest after the decision to dispose of it. Ukrainian Ambassador to Australia Vasily Miroshnichenko hopes that there is still the possibility of transferring the helicopters, although the dismantling process has already begun.
07:23 Over the past 24 hours, 94 military clashes took place at the front, the General Staff reported in its morning report. In the Avdeevsky direction, the Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks in the areas of Novobakhmutovka, Stepnoy, Avdeevka and another 14 attacks near Pervomaisky and Nevelsky, Donetsk region. In the Maryinsky direction, 16 attacks were repelled (near Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomikhailovka in the Donetsk region), in the Limansky direction - 14 attacks (near Makeyevka, Belogorivka in the Lugansk region and Verkhnekamensky in the Donetsk region).
In addition, in the Kupyansky direction, Ukrainian forces repelled three enemy attacks in the Sinkovka and Petropavlovka areas of the Kharkov region; on Bakhmutskoye - five attacks near Kleshcheevka and Andreevka, Donetsk region; in Zaporozhye - ten attacks near Chervonoye, west of Verbovoye and Rabotino, Zaporozhye region. The expansion of the bridgehead continues in the Kherson direction; over the past 24 hours, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to storm the positions of the Defense Forces seven times.
06:19 The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that air defense systems allegedly destroyed three Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles over the Kursk region.
00:28 The Estonian Ministry of Defense has prepared for Kiev’s NATO allies and Ramstein format participants a plan for Ukraine to achieve victory in the war in three years, ERR reports. The main message is that the West should not be afraid to help Ukraine in its war. The authors of the document hope that problems with financing assistance to Ukraine in Brussels and Washington will be overcome in the near future.
The document emphasizes that the total GDP of all countries of the Ramstein group is 47 trillion euros, of which 0.2% has so far been allocated to help Ukraine. At the same time, Russia's GDP is estimated at only 2 trillion euros. But the Russian Federation “has switched to the path of a war economy” and directed half of its resources directly to waging war, and the West “has not yet woken up,” says Kalev Stoicescu, head of the Estonian Parliament’s defense committee.
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