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2024-01-03 Europe
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The ghost of empire: in the past year, Austria-Hungary rose from the grave
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Oleg Khavich
[REGNUM] Six European countries did not support the declaration on security guarantees for Kyiv. Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrey Sibiga reported this on air at the national telethon. He clarified that we are talking about Austria, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Croatia.
“I think that all these states have the political will to become a party to the declaration. We are now working with these partners so that they also join in guaranteeing our security,” said Sibiga, who is the “gray eminence” of Ukrainian foreign policy.
BLACKMAIL IN FAVOR OF BOSNIA
If we take out the island Malta with its army of 1,700 people, the remaining five countries, which so far refuse to sacrifice their security for Ukraine, have two important points in common. Firstly, they are all located in Central and Eastern Europe. Secondly, the territory of all these countries (in whole or in part) until 1918 was under the rule of Austria-Hungary.
In Kiev, they chose not to notice the last fact - most likely because part of the territory of Ukraine (the current Ivano-Frankivsk, Transcarpathian, Lviv, Ternopil and most of the Chernivtsi regions) was also once part of the Danube Monarchy.
However, journalists and diplomats have been talking about Austria-Hungary appearing on the map of Europe for many years now, and recent events have only intensified the discussion of this topic.
Thus, on the eve of the recent European Union summit, which considered the issue of starting negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU, the Brussels edition of the American portal Politico published a large material entitled “Rumors of the revival of Austria-Hungary.”
It said that Austria and Hungary act as a duo against the EU on issues of Ukraine, Russia and even the conflict between Israel and Hamas. “Make no mistake: this is a dual monarchy rising from the grave,” the publication quoted an unnamed Brussels diplomat.
In the situation with the accelerated advancement of Ukraine into the European Union, the problem is that the Austrians have their favorites among the candidate states for accession to the EU, primarily Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).
It, like Ukraine and Moldova, received candidate status last year. But Brussels proposed to begin opening negotiations only with Kiev and Chisinau. In response, Austria, in fact, began open blackmail of the European Union - they say, either you open the doors for our favorite, or everyone remains behind the door.
Speaking on December 11 before deputies of the federal parliament, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said that his country is not ready to support the opening of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU in the current conditions.
According to him, no one should have special conditions for entry: “There should be no preferences for Ukraine, especially in comparison with Bosnia and Herzegovina. ”
Of course, in Brussels they were sure that Austria would give in at the last moment (in fact, that’s what happened at the summit). At the same time, the Politico article quoted an unnamed senior Austrian official as saying: “We are not going to stand in Ukraine’s way into the EU, because that is the same as standing in front of a freight train. But we want to quietly attach Bosnia and Herzegovina to the back of this train.”
Of course, this also applies to the course of future negotiations on Ukraine’s accession: at each stage, Vienna will use its voice, bargaining for preferences for BiH.
“When it comes to Austria's political direction, there is still plenty to worry about. In the fall of next year (2024 has already arrived - editor's note) elections are planned to be held in the country. The anti-European Freedom Party, which sees Orbán's Hungary as a model, leads the polls by a comfortable margin,” Politico wrote.
ALL THE TROUBLES ARE BECAUSE OF UKRAINE
The publication recalled that during a recent visit to Budapest, the leader of the Freedom Party, Herbert Kickl, called Hungary “a refuge of national self-determination and resistance to globalist interference from Brussels.”
True, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who was the main target of criticism from Politico and all mainstream European media, unexpectedly retreated at the EU summit on the issue of starting negotiations on Ukraine’s accession under pressure from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Scholz is rumored to have threatened Orban that German companies could leave Hungary, which account for a quarter of the country's exports and a fifth of all foreign investment.
However, having returned to his homeland, Viktor Orban hastened to assure his somewhat discouraged electorate that he was not going to give up his opposition to Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.
In the last week before Christmas, Orbán filled the Hungarian media landscape, assuring voters that everything was under control.
Contrary to the rules, he gave live interviews to TV2 and Hir TV, newspapers Magyar Nemzet and Mandiner, and appeared on the Mandiner podcast. And this is in addition to the traditional monologue interview on the public Radio Kossuth and a large press conference for local and foreign media in Budapest.
“We know that the decision to start negotiations can lead to many problems, but we have legal grounds to prevent these problems as soon as they turn out to concern Hungary,” the Hungarian prime minister explained his new tactics for negotiations with Ukraine in an interview with the main government Magyar Nemzet publication.
“The decisive argument for Hungary’s consent was that now it has nothing to lose from the start of negotiations,” he added in a conversation with Mandiner, emphasizing the “now.” And in the future, the process of Ukraine's accession will require more than 70 unanimous votes of all EU member countries.
At the same time, during the ongoing “national consultations” in Hungary, millions of citizens received notices from their government explaining why the country is facing financial problems.
They say that EU money does not come to Hungary because it is transferred to Ukraine. Ukraine's accession to the EU will lead to additional problems for Hungary, because now all the money will go to Ukrainians. Brussels is demanding permission to import GMO products from Ukraine into Hungary and is killing local farmers. And all this is happening because the EU does not want peace, but war, and therefore supplies Kyiv with weapons.
In a word, all the troubles of the Hungarians are because of Ukraine. And such a signal is greatly amplified by the government propaganda machine, which provides constant support for “consultations” and encourages people to take part in them, including online.
At the same time, even Ukrainian analysts explain the absence of the issue of the rights of the Hungarian community of Transcarpathia among the directions of criticism of Kyiv by the fact that Orban is simply waiting for the Kyiv authorities to fail to implement recently adopted changes to the legislation on national minorities.
THE EUROPEAN UNION AS AN ADVERSARY
However, if Viktor Orban is still taking a wait-and-see approach, then his Slovak colleague (by the way, all of Slovakia was part of Hungary until 1918) Robert Fico looked very decisive in his address to the nation following the results of 2023.
“I am convinced that most of the EU is deliberately mistaken about the war in Ukraine. A significant, I would say overwhelming, part of the EU states is literally obsessed with Ukraine and hatred of Russia. This gives rise to strange opinions that are spread completely uncritically in the European media. Allegedly, we must continue to support the war in Ukraine, and peace negotiations are now undesirable,” he said. At the same time, it was clearly implied that Slovakia belongs to the minority that thinks correctly.
According to Fico, Ukraine is simply being used to weaken Russia economically and internationally. “Ukraine has become a Klondike for arms firms and merchants of death. I am afraid that in the name of these geopolitical goals, the West will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian soldier. And we are no longer so far from this,” stated the Prime Minister of Slovakia. He did not mention that his government had stopped any military assistance to Kyiv - the Slovaks already know this very well.
Robert Fico feels confident: his fourth government, created following the parliamentary elections on September 30, has a comfortable majority in parliament and support in Slovak society.
But Croatia, consisting of the former lands of the Austrian and Hungarian crowns, will face both parliamentary and presidential elections in 2024.
And if the president of this country, Zoran Milanovic, always opposed military assistance to Ukraine and tried to prevent it, then Prime Minister Andrei Plenkovic achieved the transfer to Kiev of a considerable amount of weapons from the Croatian arsenals, in particular, more than 20 Mi-8 combat helicopters.
However, on the eve of the Sabor (parliament) elections, in which his right-wing Croatian Democratic Union party may lose to the left-wing opposition supported by the president for the first time in more than 20 years, Plenkovic is becoming increasingly cautious with pro-Ukrainian statements. The above-mentioned refusal of security guarantees for Ukraine by Croatia is just one example of this.
The most paradoxical is the situation in Poland, in which the former Austrian possessions make up less than 20% of the territory - we are talking about Western Galicia with its center in Krakow. During the parliamentary campaign in the summer-autumn of 2023, the right-wing conservative party “Law and Justice” (PiS) in power took a number of steps directed against the Kyiv authorities.
Firstly, a ban was introduced on the import of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products. Secondly, then-Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland would no longer transfer weapons and military equipment from its arsenals to Ukraine.
But the elections on October 15 were won by the left-liberals, who sharply criticized PiS for insufficient support for Ukraine. It is not surprising that the new government of Poland, formed on December 13, headed by Donald Tusk, was expected in Kiev to resolve problems in bilateral relations. And first of all, unblocking the border, which has been closed by Polish truckers since November 6, 2023.
However, so far Kiev has only waited for the visit of Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski last week - with assurances of friendship and support.
At the same time, on the eve of the visit, Polish Deputy Minister of Agriculture Michal Kolodziejczak said that the new government would leave the ban on grain imports from Ukraine in force, although Brussels is strongly opposed to this.
Moreover, he allowed a blockade of Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU for at least 20 years if Ukraine succeeds in becoming a full member of the European Union. “We must protect our interests, as Germany did when Poland joined the EU. Then the labor market for Poles was closed for eight years,” he recalled.
And the leader of the Polish People's Party, part of the new ruling coalition, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh, previously demanded to expand the embargo on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products and stated that he would stand on the side of Polish carriers blocking the border.
At the same time, Kosiniak-Kamysh, who has held the post of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense of Poland since December 13, has not said a word about military assistance to Kyiv from Warsaw since that time. He also did not comment on the situation with the refusal to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is also silent about this. However, he gave Kyiv hope for ending the blockade of three of the four automobile checkpoints on the Polish-Ukrainian border.
“We are close to the conviction that our actions can produce results both at the negotiations in Kyiv and in Brussels. I don’t think we will reach the maximum that truckers want, but what can be achieved will allow us to relieve emotions and lift the blockade on the border,” he said on December 27 at a press conference in Warsaw.
With these words, all that remains is to remember that a little over 100 years ago, the question of the border crossings Medyka - Shegini, Korchovaya - Krakovets and Grebennoye - Rava-Russkaya would have seemed like an inappropriate joke to a citizen of Austria-Hungary. After all, then all the mentioned settlements were within one Austrian province - the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria (Vladimeria, i.e. Volyn).
By the way, the mentioned Politico article also begins with a joke: “A surefire way to anger an Austrian is to mention the upcoming Austria-Hungary football match and then ask who the opponent is. ” But the following conclusion follows: now there is such a rival, and it is the EU.
And this applies not only to Austria and Hungary, but also to almost all states created on the territory of the former dual monarchy.
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Posted by badanov 2024-01-03 00:00||
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