Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov
[REGNUM] On December 18, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the formation of a multinational initiative to “jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden ,” calling the actions of the Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement “an international problem requiring collective action.”
According to the Pentagon chief, the initiative, called Operation Prosperity Guardian, along with the United States, will initially involve Bahrain, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and France.
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Houthi attacks on ships heading to Israel or owned by Israeli companies and citizens in the Red Sea have already led to the collapse of maritime traffic in this area. Leading sea carriers have changed cargo delivery routes to bypass Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Previously, this route was considered the largest international transport artery and provided almost 12% of world trade.
On Monday, the largest British oil producing company BP also announced that it had suspended all oil and gas supplies through the Red Sea. Thus, it joins such transport giants as the Danish Maersk, the Swiss MSC, the French CMA CGM, the German Hapag-Lloyd, the Chinese Evergreen and the Norwegian Frontline, which account for the lion's share of sea freight.
This development of the situation not only provoked an increase in tariffs for maritime transport services, but also an increase in world oil prices. By the evening of December 19, the February Brent oil futures on the London ICE exchange increased by 3.1% ($78.94/barrel). Continued Houthi attacks risk returning oil prices to $90+.
Experts in Europe and the Gulf states say the West may have underestimated the strength of the Houthi movement. It has long been perceived as a troubled but isolated militant group, largely dependent on weapons and funding from Iran, Israel's main enemy in the region, writes the British The Telegraph.
THE HOUTHIS WILL WELCOME ATTACKS
Despite the formation of the Prosperity Guardian, the US is still considering how to conduct military action against the Houthis. Washington would apparently like to avoid a direct military clash with Ansar Allah. Therefore, the Pentagon is working primarily to strengthen the maritime defense forces, which are designed to ensure the safety of ships sailing to the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb from attacks by Houthi missiles and drones.
That is, most likely, we are talking about creating an “impenetrable” air defense umbrella over the water area. However, even the set of forces and means that will be involved in the operation is not disclosed. Perhaps they are simply not defined yet.
In addition, according to American representatives, against the backdrop of the creation of an anti-Houthi alliance, Washington held talks with the movement through the mediation of Oman, calling for an end to the attacks. A Houthi spokesman confirmed the contacts, noting that the group will continue its activities until Israel ceases hostilities in the Gaza Strip.
“We assure all ships heading to all ports of the world, except the ports of Israel, that no harm will come to them and they should keep their identification devices turned on ,” official Ansar Allah spokesmen assured the world community.
In turn, retired US Army General Joseph L. Votel reported on possible US options to Air & Space Forces Magazine: “Bab el-Mandeb is incredibly important (...) . It is necessary to take action against coastal radars, coastal artillery systems, missile systems and similar objects ,” Votel said, referring to cruise missile strikes against these targets.
In 2016–2019 the general headed the Central Command (CENTCOM) and already has some experience in countering the Houthis in 2016, when they attacked the American destroyer USS Mason.
However, taking into account the arrival of the American aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the adjacent zone of the Gulf of Aden, the range of Sentinel weapons is significantly increasing due to carrier-based aircraft and is not limited to cruise missiles.
However, analyst Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy was not so militant. “We have no experience successfully containing the Houthis, so we don’t know how they will react to force (...) They want to be recognized as the biggest player in the Axis of Resistance and the only one capable of going one-on-one with the United States . ” - says the expert.
Agreeing with Knights is Mustafa Noman , a former Yemeni diplomat who said the Ansar Allah movement should not be taken lightly. "They dream of the Americans or the Israelis attacking them because that would turn them into a real resistance force ," he said during a speech at the London think tank Chatham House.
So while the Joe Biden administration is exploring options for a retaliatory strike on missile sites in Yemen, the White House fears that such actions risk causing an even greater escalation in the Middle East. For example, direct confrontation with Iran. This is exactly what Biden is trying to avoid.
The current round of escalation in Yemen will certainly affect the security of the US military in Syria and Iraq. There they are already constantly under attack from the so-called. "Islamic Resistance of Iraq", associated with the Iranian IRGC.
Also in this case, the risks of a wider naval war in response to possible Houthi bombings increase.
For example, “retaliation strikes” from the Axis forces can be expected in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Persian Gulf. In these waters in 2019, there have already been a series of attacks on tankers docked in the ports of KSA and the UAE, and then on two British ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The West was quick to blame the attack on Iran, which has not admitted its involvement.
Expansion of the naval war into the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 30 percent of oil transportation passes, cannot under any circumstances be ruled out. The same “Islamic Resistance of Iraq” can take responsibility for the attacks, if they happen, regardless of who will actually be behind these attacks.
ARABS DON'T WANT TO FIGHT
The current anti-Houthi alliance led by the United States looks more like an alliance of European and North American NATO countries, devoid of any significant regional component. Except for Bahrain and Seychelles.
Among its participants there is clearly a lack of influential regional players from among the Arab states. This once again demonstrates the fault line between the collective West and the Global South, now also regarding the conflict in Gaza and the related actions of the Houthis.
As IA Regnum previously reported , Saudi Arabia, despite American pressure, refuses to join the new anti-Houthi coalition led by the United States. For Riyadh, the priority remains a sustainable peace with the Houthis and continued normalization of relations with Iran. This is being done for the sake of implementing our own development program “Vision 2030”.
However, as it turned out, the UAE, another leader along with the KSA of the “first” anti-Houthi coalition during the war in 2014–2022, also did not join the American “Guardian”. This was somewhat unexpected, since it was Abu Dhabi that took the toughest position regarding Ansar Allah and its actions in the Red Sea.
In particular, the Western media noted that the Emirates are committed to a forceful solution to the Houthi problem. At the same time, at the moment, of all the Arab countries, only Bahrain has joined the American naval mission. And this state is often viewed almost as a Trojan horse for Israel in the Arab world due to its particularly trusting relationship with Tel Aviv. In addition, the headquarters of the US 5th Fleet is located on this island.
The UAE, apparently having weighed all the risks, decided at this stage to distance itself from joining the maritime anti-Houthi coalition. Perhaps it’s all about the format of participation, and Abu Dhabi followed the principle by refusing to participate in the structure that it itself recently left.
Let us recall that on May 31, 2023, the UAE withdrew from the United States-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF). But it is under the auspices of the compulsory medical insurance that the “Guardian of Prosperity” is being created.
It should also be borne in mind that the reason for the UAE’s withdrawal from the compulsory medical insurance was their, in the Emirates’ opinion, inefficiency. So now, Abu Dhabi does not consider it advisable to join an alliance whose actions will not lead to a fundamental change in the situation and will not force the Houthis to abandon their plans.
But such participation will negatively affect the UAE’s image in the Arab and Islamic world and lead to reputational losses. It will inevitably be perceived as complicity in military support for Israel, and therefore responsibility for the attacks on Gaza.
Perhaps it would be in the UAE’s interests to “turn the table” by taking advantage of the operation against the Houthis and forcing all players to reconsider the entire Yemeni settlement process. The Emirates could sideline Saudi Arabia and lead a new round of peace talks with the Houthis on new terms. And these conditions would better take into account the interests of Abu Dhabi and its Yemeni allies, primarily from the Southern Transitional Council.
At the same time, if the escalation provoked by attacks on the Houthis becomes uncontrollable, this could lead to even more unpredictable consequences for the UAE. In particular, the course of events may force the Emirates to return to Yemen in order to support its allies and keep them in the game against the threat of a new Houthi offensive.
This scenario is not included in the UAE’s immediate plans. Therefore, the risks of participating in the operation against the Houthis probably outweigh the possible dividends for the UAE.
Two more Arab countries - Egypt and Jordan - are suffering financial and economic losses from the consequences of Ansar Allah attacks. Their joining the coalition was expected (especially since both countries are members of the OMC), but they were not included in the list of alliance participants announced by the Pentagon.
According to Al Jazeera, Egypt does not want its actions to be seen as going against the Houthi position on the Gaza Strip, according to which Israel must end the war in the enclave. The same point of view can be fully applied to Jordan.
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