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2023-10-20 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Threat of energy shortage looms over Russia
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Sergey Savchuk
[RIA] According to media reports, Russia has actually turned off the switch on one of its important export routes. We are talking about the flow of electricity along the so-called Georgian corridor and further to Turkey. Previously, especially in the summer, during the period of peak loads due to abnormal heat, the export of electricity was already limited, which was due to the need to dispatch energy due to the failure of a number of transformer and distribution substations.
Since the residents and infrastructure of the southern regions suffered the most from record temperatures, export volumes through the nearest energy bridges were quite logically cut in their favor. In particular, to Azerbaijan, South Ossetia and the already mentioned Georgia.
Regarding supplies to Turkey, it should be noted that this country is the largest buyer of Russian megawatts. But weather conditions and the need to cover domestic needs led to the fact that in the period from April to June, the Turks on average received no more than 50 megawatts during the day and about 250 megawatts at night, when consumption within Russia itself fell. From July onwards, this figure decreased further, although, according to some sources, the terms of the bilateral contract imply the supply of at least 700 megawatts daily.
The critical reason for stopping flows is the lack of internal generation. Or, simply put, there is an insufficient number (and capacity) of our own Russian power plants. Those who at least slightly follow the news from the world of domestic energy must have experienced a fair amount of surprise at this moment. For the reason that just recently, in 2021, the Rosatom corporation published a report on its activities and a development forecast, which stated in black and white that the construction of new nuclear power plants in Russia is not planned in the near foreseeable future due to that there is overproduction. That is, Russia produces so much electricity that there is literally nowhere to put it.
The inconsistency will be all the more glaring if we remember that just a couple of days ago, at the end of the annual “Russian Energy Week” (REW), the head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, told the press that our country lacks at least 30 nuclear power plants of medium and low power. At least twenty more similar projects are being asked to be implemented by foreign buyers, but we are not talking about them today.
While a fair portion of the planet's population was fascinated by the blazing kaleidoscope of events of the last two years, the situation in Russia individually has changed radically.
Here we will try to explain the essence of the processes, as they say, on the fingers, relying on numbers and mathematics of the school course.
At the end of 2021, our country consumed 1090.4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. In 2022, when the special military operation began, it was already 1106.3 billion, that is, the net increase in consumption was 15.9 billion kilowatt-hours (or 15.9 terawatt-hours). According to average world statistics, one nuclear reactor at full load per hour produces 25 million kilowatt-hours (25 gigawatt-hours). We calculate the progression, and it turns out that to obtain one terawatt-hour, continuous operation of one reactor is required for 40 hours, that is, to cover the resulting increase in consumption, at least 600 machine-hours are needed.
Currently, there are 11 nuclear power plants in operation in Russia, with 37 reactors humming comfortably with piping and generators. By simple division we find that to cover the peak it is necessary to increase production at at least 17 reactors. Any person with the slightest knowledge of systems technology understands that this is almost impossible, since reactors cannot constantly operate at the limit; they require power maneuvers, compliance with fuel cycles and scheduled preventive maintenance.
Naturally, it is not only nuclear workers who supply electricity to our outlets. There are also coal, gas, oil, hydroelectric and battery stations. The difficulty is that all of them, in fact, are the backbone of the generation, the main workers who also get tired, break down, and ask for rest, repairs and cleaning of boilers.
Russia, which in 2021 consumed 1,090 billion and produced 1,131 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity and sleepily rested on the laurels of energy redundancy, at the end of 2023 ran into a wall of deficit, which simply has nothing to cover, since neighbors are located along the perimeter of the borders , themselves ready to buy a thousand or two megawatts.
And now the most important questi
The answer lies on the surface - this is due to the same sharp increase in the workload of plants, factories and various specialized and related enterprises carrying out orders in the interests of the Ministry of Defense, the front and import substitution. Producing bandages, cartridges, tanks, 3D-printed frames and blades for FPV drones, low-current wires for fire control systems on ships and a million other products that are difficult to cover even with the richest imagination. It has long been known that you and I, that is, the population, consume the smallest part of electricity for our domestic needs.
A significant part of it is spent on transport and the production of essential goods. The vast majority of electricity is consumed by factories and factories, especially in heavy and medium industry. In different countries, depending on the degree of industrialization, they account for from 60 to 80 percent of consumption, which is why in professional jargon they are called anchor consumers.
We sincerely hope that in the near future energy engineers from other directions will also be pleased with the news. For example, coal miners will report that they have mastered the industrial technology of boilers with ultra-supercritical performance, but for now let’s be happy for our nuclear workers. Alexey Likhachev says that Rosatom is actively preparing for the production of small and medium-sized nuclear power plants (the so-called NPP projects), and their power will be adjusted to the specific conditions of the location region - from a few to hundreds of megawatts.
How can one not recall the Russian folk saying that there would be no happiness, but misfortune would help.
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Posted by badanov 2023-10-20 00:00||
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Posted by Dale 2023-10-20 10:33||
2023-10-20 10:33||
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