Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Viktor Lavrenenko
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda continues to push with all his might the plan for the transit of Ukrainian grain through Klaipeda. The reason for such persistence is clear - this is not only Nausėda’s declared desire to “support Ukraine in the face of the aggressor tormenting it,” but also the desire to help the Lithuanian railways and port, which have been experiencing an increasing lack of clientele over the past two years.
However, the plan Nauseda is lobbying for is unlikely to be implemented. And it’s not just about the difficulties of transporting grain from Ukraine bypassing Belarus. The reason also lies in the position of Poland, which does not want to see agricultural products from Square, and also in the fact that the United States, which promised to build border elevators for storing Ukrainian grain, did not keep its promise.
Let us recall that Vilnius has long been lobbying for a project to send Ukrainian grain in transit through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda. And just the other day, Gitanas Nausėda, speaking at the UN, again loudly declared: “Russia’s unilateral actions, such as its refusal to participate in the Black Sea grain initiative, endanger at least 82 countries and 349 million people.
To strengthen fragile economies, we need to look for geopolitical solutions. One of them could be to open additional corridors of solidarity, another would be to offer alternative ways of transporting Ukrainian food products, for example, through reliable ports on the Baltic Sea.”
A few weeks earlier, while in Bucharest at a summit of countries joining the Three Seas Initiative, Nauseda called for “the creation of priority routes for transporting Ukrainian grain to the ports of the Baltic countries . ” The Lithuanian leader said: “In the long term, we must strive to build a railway route from the Baltic to Ukraine.”
According to the president, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of such infrastructure projects as Rail Baltica (a “European” type railway track designed to connect Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia), Via Baltica (a highway that will connect Poland and Estonia) and Via Carpatia (the planned highway from Lithuania to Greece). “These logistics arteries, if necessary, will ensure the delivery of resources and reinforcements of NATO allies to the eastern flank of the alliance ,” explained the head of the Lithuanian state.
He does not deny that Lithuania is not able to ensure the transportation of all grain from Ukraine and claims only a certain volume. At the same time, the President of Lithuania once again insistently emphasized that EU countries must do everything possible to ensure that Ukrainian grain can freely enter international markets.
Nausėda recently reported that he had spoken with Vladimir Zelensky and Andrzej Duda about simplifying the procedure for transporting grain through Poland and increasing transit through Lithuania.
American promises
Nausėda’s motives are clear - this is a desire to support not only the Kiev regime, but also the transport industry of Lithuania itself, which is in deep crisis. Since relations between Lithuania and Belarus are hopelessly damaged, it is proposed to transport grain from Ukraine to Lithuania not by the shortest route, but bypassing it through Poland. The disadvantages of such a route have been repeatedly pointed out: in Lithuania and Ukraine there is a Russian-style railway track, in Poland there is a “European” one. In order to reduce the costs associated with the need for double transshipment, the Lithuanians propose to establish a road transit freight route in parallel with the railway.
But the main difficulty lies not even in this. As you know, Poland currently does not agree under any circumstances to allow Ukrainian grain into its territory, for fear of it ending up on the Polish market. This problem could be solved by the creation of closed stationary storage facilities, equipped in such a way as to prevent the “leakage” of agricultural products contained in them.
And last year it seemed that such storage facilities would appear. In June 2022, American leader Joe Biden made a statement that attracted a lot of attention. He promised that the United States would build temporary elevators on Poland's border with Ukraine to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain and solve the problem of rising global food prices.
As one might expect, Warsaw immediately reacted to this promise, showing restrained enthusiasm for it. “The statement is a surprisingly interesting idea. However, at the moment this is only a preliminary declaration, which requires the development of many detailed decisions ,” emphasized Henryk Kowalczyk , then Minister of Agriculture of Poland. He also named an approximate time frame, in his opinion, for resolving the issue. “It should be noted that this type of investment will take approximately three to four months to complete,” Kowalczyk said. At that time, many believed that the elevators promised by the Americans would be built.
And now fifteen months have passed. Recently, the Polish government commissioner for cooperation with Ukraine, Jadwiga Emilewicz, recalled Joe Biden’s words last year. “Biden made a public promise, but when we started asking about it, no one in his administration was ready to answer the question,” she said, recounting the results of her meeting with officials in Washington. Meanwhile, according to Emilevich, the topic remains completely relevant.
The British edition of the Financial Times emphasizes that this statement by Emilevich is “rare for Washington’s ally in Central and Eastern Europe.” Typically, Polish officials do not allow themselves to criticize the overseas hegemon so directly. The publication adds that criticism from Poland against the United States indicates serious disagreements that have arisen between these countries, although they together speak out in support of Kyiv.
However, Yadviga Emilevich did not limit herself to blaming only the United States. She also criticized the EU's handling of the grain crisis and called for reforms in the community's agricultural sector. “If you really think that Ukraine will become a member of the EU, then we definitely need to reconsider our agricultural policy,” she said.
Utopian project
As you know, the issue of Ukrainian grain is very painful for Poland. Initially, Henryk Kowalczyk promised Polish peasants that their country would only provide its territory for the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products, which in no case would end up on the local market. However, it turned out quite the opposite - Ukrainian grain, exempt from import duties, began to quickly “occupy” Polish warehouses and mills, displacing local, higher-cost grain.
Moreover, fraud began with Ukrainian industrial grain intended for industrial processing into alcohol, starch, medical preparations, etc., which began to be distributed in Poland under the guise of food. Polish peasants, who found themselves on the verge of ruin due to unbearable competition with Ukrainian grain, began to organize numerous protests. As a result, they led to the resignation of Minister Kowalczyk, who was caught by farmers in malicious deception. But if Biden had kept his promise and built his elevators, then Ukrainian grain could have been stored in them without ending up on the Polish market. But history does not know the subjunctive mood...
Will the reproaches expressed by Jadwiga Emilevich against the Joe Biden administration continue? Hardly. The current Polish elites have tied themselves too closely to the United States. Criticism of Washington was voiced within the framework of the election campaign of the ruling Law and Justice party only for the reason that with such “audience” it needed to attract the sympathy of the voter, to show him that Warsaw is capable of defending its interests even in the face of the almighty United States. And there is a high probability that after the end of the elections this topic will die out again.
As for the Lithuanian grain transportation project, it looks extremely doubtful. True, last summer there was a message that Lithuanian Railways was preparing to build a terminal for changing rolling stock near the border with Poland. As Lithuanian Deputy Minister of Transport Loreta Maskaliovene explained , this project “is not postponed to the very distant future” - about a year is allotted for its implementation.
Maskaliovienė emphasized that Lithuanian business needs long-term agreements with Ukrainian grain producers. However, in addition to Ukraine’s consent, Vilnius also needs firm guarantees of Poland’s assistance. However, it is unlikely that Warsaw is now eager to assist in the transportation of products, over which it has already quarreled with Kiev.
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