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2023-09-21 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Azerbaijan's new strategy has borne fruit in Karabakh
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Victor Vasiliev
[REGNUM] Almost no one doubts that Azerbaijan will now take all of Karabakh. Even in Armenia itself. How did this happen? These are the fruits of the strategy that was chosen in Baku at the suggestion of very smart “foreign advisers” more than a year ago.
The strategy of general buying (“pouring money”) of the largest media outlets and bloggers was adjusted in favor of more complex tools and thoughtful goal setting.
What is this strategy?
Firstly, these are constant and successful information provocations directed against Armenia, from the work of banal bot farms to much deeper and more effective cases. Almost like the Ukrainian TsIPsO, but more subtle.
These operations were carried out both in Azerbaijan and Turkey itself, and in neighboring states - in Russia and throughout the post-Soviet space. And what is most interesting is in Armenia itself.
One of the private goals of such work was and remains to reduce the information and reputational influence of the leaders of the Armenian diaspora in Russia, both within Russia itself and in Armenia. Over the past two years, the Russian diaspora of Armenians has largely lost both the opportunity to influence events in Armenia (attempts to form a united opposition to Nikol Pashinyan were completely failed), and has lost many lobbying opportunities in dialogue with the top political leadership of Russia.
The Azerbaijani information lobby also effectively plays on anti-Armenian sentiments within Russia. Unlike the Second Karabakh War (2020), none of the Russian media heavyweights or military correspondents support the Armenian side today.
Another goal of Baku’s information work was to subtly impose the idea that Nagorno-Karabakh would sooner or later be lost to the Armenians.
This was realized as a regular escalation of passions (provocations, threats, etc.) around the part of Karabakh that remained Armenian, and as a consequence, the onset of “fatigue” from this topic among the Armenian community.
The carrot method (not just the stick) was also implemented: at all levels (not only informational) scenarios for economically beneficial coexistence of Yerevan with Ankara and Baku were proposed and voiced in the event of the resolution of all territorial disputes and the release of the blockade of Armenia.
Secondly, Baku’s new strategy is characterized by constant “probing the red lines.”
There are constant armed provocations along the entire line of contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In the absence of an equivalent response, the Azerbaijani side allows itself more every time. There is a significant outflow of population from the Syunik, Vayots Dzor and Gegharkunik regions bordering Azerbaijan (we are generally silent about Stepanakert). In fact, the territory is being depopulated.
And here we clearly register for ourselves another conclusion regarding the current conflict - the matter will not be limited to Karabakh. But more on that later.
The third and most striking direction of Baku’s new strategy was the case of the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. It was carried out over 10 months by Azerbaijani “ecologists” who blocked the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting the Armenian enclave in Nagorno-Karabakh with the rest of Armenia.
Of course, this strategy has a significant number of directions, and not all of them are related to the current aggravation and “counterterrorist operation” of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. If only because, I repeat, among its goals is not only the complete return of Nagorno-Karabakh, but also other territorial claims against Armenia.
Considering that the Russian peacekeeping contingent has formal obligations to ensure the security of the population in the disputed territories, Russia automatically becomes a target when implementing this strategy.
Additionally, there is a “Ukrainian factor” that cannot be ignored.
We are talking about the complete solidarity of Ukrainian and Azerbaijani nationalists with the beginning of the Northern Military District. This is also manifested at the official level by official Kiev’s full support for all actions of Baku. The participation of Azerbaijani volunteers on the Ukrainian side in the armed confrontation against Russia is a fact that takes place and is still poorly understood.
And here we come to one of the main questions. Who is behind this strategy? Who is pushing Baku to escalate in the South Caucasus?
The obvious answer is Türkiye, but it is only partly true. The real author of this game in the Caucasus, like centuries ago, are the British. They are the ones who contribute to the consulting and technological support of this strategy. They are also the authors of its main parts.
And unlike Azerbaijan, they have one goal - to counteract Russia in the region (and not only here, but along the entire perimeter of the borders - from the Baltic states and Ukraine to Central Asia).
Fortunately, they have all the necessary tools - historical experience, a qualified team and modern technologies. One of the markers of the British trace is the policy of the leading British media (BBC, Financial Times, and others) in covering the situation in the region, obvious anti-Russian rhetoric, which contrasts even with the American media.
It is quite possible that the UK and the US have different goals in the region, based on the special influence of the Armenian lobby in the States.
The goal of Azerbaijan, unlike the British, is not directly directed against Russia and is more variable - the creation of the Turan corridor through Armenia. Dreams of pan-Turkic unity, once implanted by the same British intelligence services in Turkey in the 70s with the aim of confronting the USSR, are now gaining a second wind.
Typically, the ideas of the “Great Turan” are most popular in the post-Soviet space (Azerbaijan, certain countries of Central Asia) within Russia itself (Tatarstan and especially among the Crimean Tatars), but not in Turkey. Everyone knows that Recep Erdogan implements in his foreign policy primarily the neo-Ottoman vector and the ideas of pan-Islamism, demonstratively trying not to offend the interests of Russia.
The process of creating an extraterritorial corridor through Armenia controlled by the Turkish side has several scenarios. Including the absorption of a number of regions of Armenia itself and a possible armed confrontation with Iran.
The political foundations for the implementation of this scenario have been laid by Baku diplomacy for a long time. We are talking about persistent negotiations on the return of Azerbaijanis who lived on the territory of the Armenian SSR (we are talking about hundreds of thousands of citizens).
If Pashinyan remains in power, then this scenario will be realized in the medium term (2-3 years).
The success of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces today and the implementation of future expansionist scenarios of Baku affects the interests of Russia, and not only in this region. It turns out that a state whose territory has not received official international recognition and on whose territory there are Russian peacekeepers can and should be returned with the help of military force.
Before our eyes, an entire conglomerate of unrecognized territories, relatively successfully established thanks to the efforts of Moscow since the 2000s, is collapsing. First of all, we are talking about Abkhazia and Transnistria. Few people know, but Nagorno-Karabakh and these unrecognized / partially recognized entities have agreements on mutual recognition of sovereignty. And, for example, a resident of Tiraspol has the formal right to visa-free visits to Stepanakert using a passport of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. And so on. The situation also casts a shadow on South Ossetia and the newly annexed territories.
The implementation of this scenario creates far-reaching negative consequences in both foreign and domestic political spheres.
1. The risk of hostilities spreading to the territory of Armenia, after which a fork will form - either the collapse of the CSTO, or a major war in the Caucasus (with the participation of Turkey and Iran at a minimum).
2. The growth of passionarity among the Turkic peoples: both Azerbaijani and other diasporas, and indigenous peoples in the national republics of the Russian Federation. Both will result in a significant increase in the number of interethnic conflicts.
At the same time, we find ourselves in a situation where any intervention by Moscow in the current conflict in order to defend its purely geopolitical interests could result in catastrophic consequences. The only workable option in this fork is to strengthen the alliance with a strong regional player, which is Iran.
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Posted by badanov 2023-09-21 00:00||
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