Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Oleg Khavich
[REGNUM] The “Three Seas Initiative,” designed to unite the countries of Central and Eastern Europe located between the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas, initially had an anti-Russian orientation. This is not surprising, since in geopolitical terms it was based on the idea of the “Intermarium”, which was promoted by the dictator of Poland Jozef Pilsudski in the 1920s and 1930s. The talk was about creating a confederation uniting all European countries that are located between the three mentioned seas, which would be a “cordon sanitaire” against the Soviet Union.
True, after World War II, the USSR itself created a socialist bloc in this space, which until the end of the 1980s restrained the advance of the West. But with the collapse of this bloc, and then the Soviet Union, the geopolitical void in the Intermarium was occupied by the United States, relying on its main ally in the region - Poland.
It was Polish President Andrzej Duda who became the main promoter of the creation of the “Three Seas Initiative” (ITM) consisting of a dozen countries - Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Estonia. It is worth noting that eleven of them, except Austria, were NATO members and joined the EU after 2004.
Andrzej Duda enlisted the support of Croatian President Kolinda Grabar - Kitarovic , and in August 2016 the first ITM summit was held in Dubrovnik, at which the organization was formalized.
But the second Three Seas summit, held in July 2017 in Warsaw, became much more resonant, primarily in connection with the arrival of US President Donald Trump. The declaration adopted as a result noted the main goals of the ITM - developing infrastructure and strengthening security (including energy) in the region, as well as strengthening transatlantic ties in the context of “threats emanating from Russia.”
But the Warsaw “Trimorya” summit turned out to be a kind of swan song for the organization.
Although the member countries of the initiative multiplied various structures (business forum, chamber of commerce, ITM investment fund), their work did not go beyond declarations. Infrastructure projects passing through the Trimorye, supported by the EU and the USA (Baltic-Adriatic railway corridor from Gdansk to Bologna, Via Carpathia highway from Klaipeda to Thessaloniki, liquefied natural gas transportation network with terminals in Poland and Croatia and connecting pipelines), additional political no add-ons were required.
And the expansion of the organization was limited by the initial condition: it could only include EU member countries.
Thus, in November 2019, Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz justified himself: “President of Ukraine Zelensky asked us to annex Ukraine to the Three Seas.” At this stage this is not possible, just like the Balkan countries.” He added that today only EU countries can be members of this association. The head of Polish diplomacy then noted that the Trimorya initiative should not be associated with geopolitics, since it is only an infrastructure project.
But with the beginning of the Northern Military District, the situation in Europe changed radically, and “Trimorye” also received a new impetus.
In June 2022, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced at the seventh ITM summit in Riga:
Three Seas Initiative Summit in Bucharest, Romania, 6 September 2023
“We decided to create a special new type of partnership with the Three Seas Initiative, in addition to a strategic partnership - a partnership through participation. This is a new type of partnership, which is intended not only for Ukraine. Today we gave it to Ukraine, but we proceed from the fact that the same partnership can be shared by those countries that are located in Central Europe and are not members of the European Union, but seek to join it.”
But at the eighth Trimoria summit, which took place on September 6–7 in Bucharest, it turned out that Ukraine received the status of partner-participant only now, together with Moldova. Nothing was said at the event about granting such status to Albania and Montenegro, which have access to the Adriatic Sea and have long been negotiating accession to the European Union.
The main event of the Bucharest summit was the first increase in the number of full members of the organization - Greece joined the Three Seas Initiative. Thus, the activities of ITM expanded to three more seas - the Aegean, Ionian and Mediterranean.
At the same time, the first day of the summit was largely devoted to discussing the situation in Ukraine, and not only in connection with the hostilities.
The tone was set by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who in a video message to the participants demanded not to continue the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain to Eastern European countries of the European Union after September 15.
“I would like to separately address the European Commission. The basis of Europe is, in particular, free competition and keeping promises.
Ukraine keeps its promises and never interferes with free competition. But we will not calmly accept the violation of promises given to us, the violation of the Association Agreement, the violation of the conditions of the free market. European institutions should not increase disappointment in Europe; they should increase confidence in the promises made in Europe.
If we need to fight for Ukraine and the foundations of our common Europe in arbitrations, we will fight in arbitrations. Although we don’t want this. If we need to fight on the platforms of international organizations, we will fight there too. But we hope for unity, and we know that unity will triumph ,” Zelensky said.
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis tried to smooth out the tension , saying: “The forum will strive to reduce the gap between Eastern and Western Europe and achieve greater cohesion, prosperity and sustainability.”
“A stab in the back of Ukraine.” Poland showed its true intentions
However, in the final joint statement of the Bucharest ITM summit, it is customary to say only about support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, but the issue of grain is passed over in silence. At the same time, none of the specific business projects that were discussed on the second day directly related to Ukraine, although on the eve of the event a substantive discussion on the post-war reconstruction of this country was announced.
Apparently, the movement of ITM to the East will remain declarative at least until the cessation of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, Greece’s entry into the Trimoria is a real step by the organization to the South, which can also count on multilateral funding.
Firstly, Greece is, although problematic, an “old” member of the European Union, and various EU programs, including infrastructure ones, have been running in this country much longer than in the “new” ones. And secondly, Greece is already a participant in two global infrastructure projects.
We are talking about the Chinese “Belt and Road”, in which the Greek port of Piraeus and the railway from it to Budapest are one of the key elements, as well as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) ). The decision to create the latter was made at the G20 summit in New Delhi literally on September 10. By the way, for IMEC the port of Piraeus is also one of the main transport hubs, and the corridor itself is considered in the West as an alternative to the Chinese project.
Thus, the Mediterranean Sea becomes a priority in the “Trimorye”, and the center of gravity of the ITM shifts south from Poland to Greece. However, from the point of view of Russian interests, this does not change anything - the Three Seas Initiative will maintain and even strengthen its anti-Russian orientation, given Athens’ orientation towards Washington.
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