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2023-08-09 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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The West is no longer waiting for a breakthrough. Progress of the counteroffensive
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Korrespondent] The West is becoming increasingly disillusioned with the Ukrainian counteroffensive. CNN writes that Western officials are already more worried that they are not publicly blamed for not the best results of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, agrees that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is "difficult", but emphasizes an important positive - the initiative belongs to Ukraine.
SKEPTICAL WEST
After weeks of Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive, Western officials are becoming more "sober" about the ability of Ukrainian forces to retake significant territory, four senior US and Western officials who have reviewed the latest intelligence told CNN.
“Over the next few weeks, they will see if there is any chance of making some progress. But that they (Ukrainians) will actually make progress that will change the balance of this conflict, I think it is extremely, extremely unlikely,” said a senior Western diplomat in CNN interview.
"Our briefings are sobering. We are reminded of the challenges they face," said Representative Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces.
According to Quigley, "this is the most difficult time of the war."
The main challenge for Ukrainian troops remains to break through Russia's multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and an extensive network of trenches.
CNN writes that Ukrainian troops suffered "staggering losses" there, which forced the Ukrainian command to detain some units to regroup and reduce losses.
Direct speech by a senior Western diplomat: “The Russians have several defensive lines and they (Ukrainian troops) have not really passed the first line. "8 weeks, what is the probability that they suddenly, with more exhausted forces, will do them? Because the conditions are very difficult."
THERE IS HOPE
A senior U.S. official told CNN that the U.S. recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing but remains hopeful of renewed progress.
“We all recognize that this is happening more difficult and slower than anyone would like, including the Ukrainians, but we still believe that there is time and space for them to make progress,” the official said.
Many officials have said that the approach of autumn, when weather and combat conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces limited time to move forward.
In addition, Western officials say the slow progress is exposing the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into integrated mechanized combat units, sometimes receiving only eight weeks of training on tanks and other new weapon systems supplied from the West.
A senior U.S. military official cited the lack of progress on the ground as one of the reasons Ukrainian forces are more likely to strike Russian territory "in an attempt to show Russia's vulnerability."
CNN notes that the latest estimates are a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive.
These officials say those expectations were "unrealistic" and are now fueling pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to start peace talks, including considering territorial concessions. "Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time," Quigley said.
Some officials fear that a growing gap between expectations and results will lead to a "blame game" between Ukrainian officials and their Western backers, which could create divisions within an alliance that has remained largely intact for nearly two years since the war began.
"The problem, of course, is the prospect that the Ukrainians will look for the culprits and then blame us," an unnamed American diplomat was quoted by CNN as saying.
ZELENSKY SEES POSITIVE
President Volodymyr Zelensky considers the Ukrainian counter-offensive "difficult", but an important positive is that the initiative belongs to Ukraine.
"The counteroffensive is complex. It is probably taking place more slowly than anyone wants," the president said.
But Zelensky emphasizes that the counteroffensive "is when the army advances, and does not retreat back. And this is an important positive, the initiative is in the hands of Ukraine."
"It is very difficult to fight for so long. It is very difficult when you have a shortage of one or another weapon. All this is very difficult, because this is a war. I just know that it is difficult for us, but I know for sure that it is more difficult for the Russians. In our eyes fatigue, and fear in their eyes," Zelensky said.
"Russia, unlike us, can really end this war faster, without unnecessary casualties. This is to withdraw from our territory. Because Ukraine is not going to continue the war on the territory of the Russian Federation. This has never been our goal. We are de-occupying our territories. And this is the difference. They have a place to return, but we don't," the head of the Ukrainian state recalled.
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Posted by badanov 2023-08-09 00:00||
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Posted by DarthVader 2023-08-09 09:47||
2023-08-09 09:47||
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Posted by Abu Uluque 2023-08-09 12:23||
2023-08-09 12:23||
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