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2023-07-28 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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NATO is concentrating forces in the Black Sea
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] The terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge and the subsequent withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal seriously aggravated the situation in the Black Sea region. Dozens of ships lie off the coast of Romania, waiting for the opportunity to enter the port of Odessa for Ukrainian grain. Carriers are waiting for a political agreement that could ensure the safety of shipping. However, there is a possibility that the West may try to resolve the issue by force, ensuring the supply of dry cargo ships with the help of its warships or organizing a provocation with the participation of civilian ships.
Over the past few days, the air forces of NATO countries have seriously increased their presence in the western part of the Black Sea. According to the monitoring service ItaMil. Radar, in the area of the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria, military aircraft and drones of the US, Italian, British air forces, as well as reconnaissance aircraft belonging to the air wing of the NATO combined forces in Europe, operate.
Regular flights to the Black Sea region are carried out by the Northrop Grumman RQ-4D reconnaissance drone with the call sign MAGMA-10, based in Sicily. The drone turns on transponders only in the airspace of NATO countries and “disappears” in the area of Romanian territorial waters. The last flight ended on the night of July 26-27.
In the Danube Delta area, the Boeing E-3A electronic reconnaissance aircraft and the Beechcraft 350 SPYDR reconnaissance aircraft of the Italian Air Force operate jointly. The reconnaissance aircraft are refueled by the Turkish Air Force Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker. According to FlightRadar, as of 15:00 on July 27, the plane was making another flight in the southern part of the Black Sea.
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NATO activity in the sky is supplemented by the presence of reconnaissance vessels and surface drones in the area. According to Mash, on Wednesday, July 19, an American reconnaissance drone SeaTrac Systems SP48 was first seen in the Black Sea. According to the publication, drones of this type can be on the high seas for a long time, recharging batteries using solar panels.
The NATO command officially announced that they would strengthen intelligence in the western part of the Black Sea, citing the situation around the grain deal.
“NATO and its members are increasing surveillance and intelligence in the Black Sea region, including through maritime patrol aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles,” the alliance ’s website says.
The alliance does not disclose the goals of the reconnaissance mission. However, as military expert Alexander Artamonov noted in a comment to IA Regnum, NATO may be planning a provocation.
“The fact is that NATO has always positioned itself as a thalassocracy. NATO is a maritime alliance, which is why it is called North Atlantic. For a long time it was believed that NATO had the ability to succeed through superiority at sea and in the coastal zone above all. Until today, luck has accompanied them in many ways,” the expert notes.
According to Alexander Artamonov, the West believes that in order to achieve victory and success in any confrontation, it is necessary to occupy the coastline.
“In this sense, Crimea has become a stumbling block, because their entire philosophy of war is built from the sea. They have this approach. They teach future officers that Russia always loses wars at sea. As they say, Russia wins on land, but always loses at sea. Therefore, the issue of military presence in the Black Sea is extremely important for them , ”the specialist added.
Explaining NATO's activity in the Black Sea, the Western media traditionally talk about the need to fight for "freedom of navigation" in such cases. The American newspaper New York Times reports on the growing tension in the region and the threat of attacks on civilian ships. The publication also cites a British intelligence report, according to which "Russia plans to establish a naval blockade of the Ukrainian coast . "
The risks of a military confrontation in the Black Sea were also announced by the official representative of Great Britain to the United Nations Barbara Woodward . Without naming sources, the diplomat said about the risks of attacks on civilian ships.
A similar statement was made by the US representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Michael Carpenter. According to him, Ukrainian sea mines can be used for provocation.
However, it is not excluded that the collective West is preparing to organize a provocation, Alexander Artamonov notes. At the same time, Turkey, which previously kept conditional "neutrality" on the situation in Ukraine, can become the main strike force of the alliance in the Black Sea.
“In this regard, I believe that NATO has a chance to annoy us and go for a provocation to protect its grain routes. And, unfortunately, our Black Sea Fleet does not have arguments that could forbid them to carry it out.
If we take it from our side, then we had one cruiser "Moskva". There are five frigates, of which only three are new. There are also six submarines and ten missile ships and boats. The total tonnage is 60,000-70,000 tons. The Turkish Navy has 88,000. Türkiye is completing the construction of helicopter carriers, they are very good with submarines. In total, they now have 165 combat pennants in the fleet.
True, there is an opinion that no more than a third of the ships will be involved in the Black Sea, but it is not a problem to transfer them through the Bosphorus. Therefore, now there are no such decisive arguments that would say that “The Black Sea is ours ,” the expert notes.
To organize this kind of provocation, NATO may not use warships, using only maritime drones or civilian ships.
Thus, according to the FSB of Russia, the dry cargo ship BMO River, which sails under the flag of Palau, was used to deliver explosives to Ukraine. Previously, the ship followed the Sinop-Rostov-on-Don route, and before that it twice called at the Ukrainian port of Reni.
Civilian ships can also be used to launch unmanned boats. At the International Defense Industry Fair in Istanbul, Ukraine presented a new unmanned boat MAGURA V5, which has a range of 450 nautical miles (about 833 km) and can carry up to 320 kg of explosives.
Carriers of such boats, Alexander Artamonov notes, can be considered a legitimate military target.
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“Any watercraft that is used for military purposes turns into a military target. I will give an example from aviation, which I did not formulate, but it fits the situation quite well.
The Americans are going to supply Ukraine with F-16 aircraft. Let's imagine that the plane became Ukrainian. But as soon as it receives target designation from AWACS aircraft, both the fighter and the aircraft with the guidance complex become a twin military target, because they take part in hostilities.
Similarly with civilian ships that launch BECs - unmanned boats that attack our facilities and ships. The range of the boats does not allow them to be launched from the shore, that is, the launch is carried out at sea from civilian ships, which are a legitimate target and can be destroyed to prevent provocations , ”the expert noted.
At the same time, Alexander Artamonov stressed, Russian troops could also complicate NATO's activities in the Black Sea by destroying the infrastructure of Ukrainian ports.
“We are doing the right thing by destroying berthing schemes in Odessa and other ports. Because NATO already controls a number of ports on the Black Sea coast. This is not only the coast of Turkey, Bulgaria, but also Batumi and Poti, where the NATO intelligence center is located and gives instructions to ships and drones.
Georgia gave them the unfinished port of Anaklia, and now they are trying to get Odessa, Nikolaev and Kherson. That is, the ultimate goal for the alliance is to capture the entire coastline of the Black Sea, so the destruction of port infrastructure is of particular importance here , ”the specialist notes.
Despite the fact that NATO is gradually aggravating the situation in the Black Sea region, Russia still has resources to prevent the growth of the alliance's influence. However, the situation around the grain deal allows the West to use its resources to organize provocations, the ultimate goal of which is not to supply starving countries with grain, but military expansion in the region.
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Posted by badanov 2023-07-28 00:00||
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