Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Petr Akopov
[RIA] Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi will hold multilateral talks today - in a virtual format and with the participation of the heads of several more states. On Tuesday, a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the main Eurasian security organization, will take place.
The SCO grew out of the Russian-Chinese security alliance in Central Asia, and although it was formalized as an organization in 2001, in fact it has existed since 1996, when the "Shanghai Five" arose. Now there are eight members in the SCO, but today at the Delhi summit there will be nine of them, because the procedure for Iran's entry will be completely completed. And this is only the beginning of a big expansion - in the next year or two, Belarus will move from the status of observers to permanent members, and a dozen more countries, mostly Muslim, are in the queue.
In recent years, the SCO has found itself, as it were, in the shadow of its younger sister, the BRICS : although it appeared later, it was created on a global rather than continental basis, and now a line of two dozen countries has lined up for it. Since 2017, the backbone of both organizations has been Russia , China and India , but the purely Eurasian nature of the SCO has already gradually expanded to Africa.
Dialogue partner status was given to Egypt , an African state, only a small part of which is located in Asia. This does not mean that the SCO has exhausted the possibilities of expansion in Eurasia : the list of those wishing to become members of the club has been actively expanding in recent years.
After the entry of Belarus in the status of observers (and this is the last preparatory step for admission to membership), only Afghanistan and Mongolia will remain . The former would like to join the organization, but at first the American occupation interfered, and now the legal non-recognition of the Taliban government by all SCO members (despite the fact that everyone maintains relations with it) stands in the way.
Mongolia, on the contrary, has no external obstacles to raising its status, but Ulaanbaatar is in no hurry to join, citing its neutrality. The SCO is not a military organization, although it is already conducting joint exercises, but Mongolia really appreciates its independence and does not want to become even more dependent on China.
But other Asian countries, on the contrary, want to get closer to both China and the SCO as a whole - this primarily concerns Muslim countries. After Pakistan first joined the SCO , and then Iran, all the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf submitted their applications - Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already become dialogue partners, the appeals of the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain will be considered at the current summit.
Turkey already has partner status ( Iraq and Syria want to apply ), as well as two countries of the Indian zone of influence, Sri Lanka and Nepal, two more neighbors of India - Myanmar and Maldives are in the queue.
That is, the states that are in the military orbit of the United States ( Japan and South Korea ) and most of the countries of Southeast Asia will remain outside the SCO in Asia (although there is already the first member of them - Cambodia , which received the status of a partner, and Myanmar has pulled itself up) . In fact, a pan-Asian security organization is being formed, promoting the unofficial slogan "Asian problems should be solved by the Asians themselves." It is clear that the West is categorically not happy with this, and they are counting on the growth of disagreements within the expanding organization. Will it work?
The SCO is consciously taking the risk of expansion - this is evidenced by the very fact of the admission of such mutually unfriendly states as India and Pakistan. Because the meaning of the SCO is precisely in creating a mechanism for resolving disputes and disagreements in the Asian space on its own. Yes, it is very difficult, yes, the West's ability to play on contradictions is still very large, but the direction of movement of the Asian countries is important.
Differences within the SCO, of course, remain, which is why, unfortunately, the current summit will be held in a virtual format. And not because of covid restrictions, as in 2020-2021, but because of the failure to coordinate the schedules of the leaders of key countries. There is no official information on this matter, but there is evidence that the main obstacle was the lack of confirmation of Xi Jinping's participation in the summit - the exact dates of the summit were not named for a long time, moved, and, apparently, Beijing did not confirm the chairman's full-time participation, and Delhi decided to transfer everything to online format.
India-China relations have been in a bad shape for the third year, which, however, did not prevent Modi and Xi from participating in last year's SCO summit in Samarkand. Could our special operation affect India's decision? It is clear that there was some pressure from the Americans (as in the case of the upcoming BRICS summit in South Africa in August), but, firstly, it could not be serious (so as not to cause indignation in Delhi), and secondly, Modi is enough independent, not to succumb to any pressure.
But even in a virtual format, the current SCO summit will be another important step towards building a post-Western paradigm - both in Asia and in the world as a whole.
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