Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Sergey Savchuk
What adequate authors have been writing about for more than a year, over which all sorts of Russophobes have been making fun of furiously and strainedly, has happened. The American Bloomberg fired a doublet of publications that confirm the correctness of the calculations, which were dismissed by the European political establishment. The publication cites excerpts from the speech of the Vice-Chancellor of Germany and concurrently the Minister of Economics.
Speaking at an economic forum in the German community of Bad Saarow, Robert Habek, without hesitation and without choosing a word, says that German industry in all its diversity, already at the turn of this winter, may either plunge into a severe historical crisis, or even cease to exist. If someone does not believe our interpretation, he is free to follow the link and see everything with his own eyes.
Any zealous owner, even without knowing the Russian folk saying, prepares a vital sled in the summer - and the Germans have always been famous for their thoroughness in business.
Robert Habek, who has the maximum completeness of the economic information of the state, claims that the collapse will be caused by Russian natural gas - the very one that the European Union so pompously and defiantly refused, indulging in the hope of a collapse of the economy, but already Russian. The team of Olaf Scholz , represented by the vice-chancellor, suddenly waking up in a severe financial and energy hangover, sounds the alarm and works out Russian narratives: it has not been possible to replace eastern imports, and there is absolutely not enough volume of our own storage facilities. In addition, no one knows how much energy carriers will cost at the turn of the end of September, which is traditionally considered in Europe as a threshold line from which the heating season starts.
The second negative factor is the notorious European unity, which has been pecked on the head of all the naive and gullible. There are approved norms for the supply of natural gas to each EU country in proportion, based on the size of the economies and total consumption. So Habek says bluntly that with the already existing internal energy shortage, Berlin is obliged to ensure gas exports to other countries in the east (read: to Poland). In other words, to select, perhaps, the last saving drops of life-giving moisture, dooming their own industry to death from thirst, but saving the half-dead economy of Poland. Which, by the way, for the entire time of its existence within the EU received the largest financial subsidies, that is, it was already the backbone of financially abundant Germany.
While the audience in the hall was digesting what they heard, Robert Habek delivered a third, already knockout blow.
According to the estimates of all industry experts, without exception, Russia is in principle ready to extend and expand the existing export gas contracts, but after the undermining of three Nord Stream pipelines, the physical possibilities of pumping fell by a factor, and Moscow , realizing the current hopeless situation of Brussels, will conclude a new contract for completely different conditions. At the same time, even the theoretical probability of such an outcome will annul Ukraine's participation in the scheme . The latter, as Western analysts admit, will not enter into any negotiations with Russia.
The liquefied gas from the USA , which is being actively promoted to the market, could not turn the tide either.
The German minister mentions that the construction of the only regasification terminal in the north of the country, which the government has been honored with over the past year, is actually stalling.
Incredibly, in this case, Russia is not to blame for anything. Opposed by local residents and environmental organizations, who are sure that the launch of such an object will harm the ecology of the coastal zone. It is very ironic, because this ideally coincides with the postulates of the green agenda, which Berlin itself was so actively promoting, and now it has rested its forehead against a carefully built wall.
The second publication emphasizes the seriousness of what is happening even more, as in it German industrialists, in particular representatives of the RWE AG concern, are estimating whether it is possible to save the real sector of Germany if underground gas storage facilities in western Ukraine are used. At the moment, the own UGS facilities of the Old World are 70 percent full, while underground reservoirs in the Lviv region are only a third. If the remaining capacities are filled and then pumped to Slovakia, Poland, Austria and Germany, this could cover at least 10-15 percent of consumption.
At the same time, mind-boggling statistics became public knowledge.
The European Union over the past year and a half, in order to avoid panic in the markets and compensate anchor consumers for energy purchases at record prices, spent 646 billion euros. It is at this amount that the analytical agency Bruegel evaluates interventions. Just for comparison: Western experts define the entire military budget of our country at $65-70 billion, that is, approximately ten times less than the EU has already swelled just to keep its economy afloat.
The Ukrainian scheme has its undeniable merits.
The storage facilities are located extremely far from the line of hostilities and are historically connected to nearby countries by a dense web of pipe piping, so supplies from here could really support the staggering eurohouse. The issue, which is never mentioned in the original post, is simple and minor. It is possible to fill Ukrainian UGS facilities only with Russian gas, the stream of which, through the efforts of all the participants in the next historical confrontation, is getting weaker and weaker.
In this regard, there is an opinion that Olaf Scholz and his associates need to learn a couple of prayers for the winter by the winter. Come in handy.
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