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2023-05-19 Afghanistan

Daily Evacuation Brief May 18 and 19, 2023

May 19, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

DIPLOMATIC SCUFFLE WITH IRAN OVER WATER ESCALATES, QOSH TEPA CANAL COMPLETION COULD WIDEN RIFT REGIONALLY – ‘Water Wars’ refers to national, regional, and international tensions that arise over access to fresh water. The issue is particularly concerning for developing countries as agriculture is typically a pillar in their national economies. The spat between Afghanistan and Iran over water rights to the Helmand River goes back decades and the two have tossed accusations at each other since the matter was supposedly settled with the agreement in 1973. Iran has lodged official complaints year after year that less than 5% of the agreed-upon amount ever flows into the Hamoun basin. Afghanistan has responded (even before the Taliban came to power) that the water levels in the Kajaki Dam are low and must be replenished. Iran has casted doubt on this assertion and continues to request that a joint delegation visit the reservoir to make an assessment. Yesterday, Iran’s Foreign Minister threatened unspecified action if the Helmand River situation was not corrected. While the Helmand River presents an immediate problem, the Qosh Tepa Canal project has much wider implications for regional instability. The construction of a major canal that would provide water to Afghanistan’s dry northern plains has long been a dream. Planners in the region were taken by surprise in January 2023 when the Taliban sanctioned the release of a video showing significant progress on the project. The Qosh Tepa Canal is expected to divert up to 30% of the water from the Amu Darya River and planning figures suggest it could create 250,000 jobs. However, the river is critical to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The problem is already being taken seriously as evidenced by a decree issued by the president of Uzbekistan on 1 April ordering the establishment of water efficiency standards in anticipation of a deepening crisis.

BEWARE OF THESE FAKE AFGHAN RESETTLEMENT ORGANIZATIONS – There are concerns over two organizations that are rumored to be targeting desperate Afghans in Pakistan with resettlement scams to come to the US. The organizations in question are IOMA (acronym undefined) and AARO (Afghanistan-America Relocation Office). The rumors forced the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM) to issue a message reminding those working on Afghan refugee cases that no legitimate organization will charge fees for relocation, resettlement, or protection.

ISLAMIC CONFERENCE IN RUSSIA BEGAN, TALIBAN SEND DELEGATION – Russia opened the 14th international gathering of Islamic nations in Tatarstan yesterday. The Taliban sent a delegation to attend the conference with the mission of increasing trade and international investment.

NEXT 24 HOURS
PAKISTAN POLICE EXPECTED TO LAUNCH A ‘COUNTER-TERRORISM’ OPERATION TO ARREST ‘TERRORISTS’ HARBORING IN IMRAN KHAN’S HOME IN LAHORE – The raid is reportedly imminent and will focus on arresting between 30 and 40 PTI party followers who are suspected of attacking Army and Police facilities during the chaos of the protests. Khan had been given twenty-four hours to hand the suspects over but the deadline came and went. The acting government for Punjab Province said that it expects the operation to take place ‘soon’. The raid could provoke a new round of protests and if any violence occurs, the protests could easily act as a call to action for the PTI faithful. Khan had dismissed the demand to hand over his followers and told Police that they must use a search warrant if they want access to his home. We do not feel the raid will spark another national outcry similar to what was witnessed on 9 May. However, if casualties result or, the raid is used as a pretext to arrest Khan or members of his household things could deteriorate rapidly.

May 18, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

CABINET PROBE STRIKES FEAR INTO MANY AFGHANS – In a unanimous vote, the Taliban cabinet agreed to launch an investigation into all official contracts that had been signed over the past 20 years. It was not immediately clear if the probe would solely focus on government contracts or would also scrutinize private agreements. Understandably, the announcement has many who remain in Afghanistan nervous. A source who ran a contracting service during the previous regime said that “So many dollars were being flown into Bagram Air Base on American planes that Afghans couldn’t help themselves.” People who had dealings with the US and coalition forces believe they will be targeted and, whether evidence of culpability is found or not, they expect harsh punishments will be meted out by the Taliban. The sheer volume of waste and incompetence by US officials during the Afghanistan War is legendary and the volumes of SIGAR reports that have been filed over the years testify to the corruption that was allowed (some would say - encouraged) to take place. A former construction business owner said that, “No matter what is investigated, or who. The Taliban will use this to settle scores and embarrass those of us who worked for the occupiers.” Such an investigation is a monumental task and it is not clear how well-equipped the Taliban is to conduct forensic accounting on the scale required for this kind of investigation. However, it is likely that whatever results will be made into a public spectacle.

THE UNITED KINGDOM HAS CUT AID TO AFGHANISTAN BY OVER 50% DUE TO BUDGET CUTS – The Independent Commission for Aid Impact reported the budget forecasted for Afghanistan in 2023-24 came in at 100 million pounds. The previous year’s budget was 246 million pounds. The watchdog accused the government of turning its back on the Afghans.

FACEBOOK SCAMMER ARRESTED IN KHOST – An unidentified man was arrested by Taliban security forces for reputedly impersonating a young girl and conning another man into paying him over 5 million Afghanis. Police did not say if the scam involved immoral promises but the individual who reported the crime was reportedly questioned about his messaging activity and is being forced to visit an Imam.

INDIAN ARMY INTERCEPTS DRUG SHIPMENT AT BORDER THAT ORIGINATED IN AFGHANISTAN – A drone carrying 15.5 kgs of unidentified narcotics was shot down by Indian border security forces in the Panjab Armritsar sector. The drone came from Pakistan and a spokeswoman said the narcotics had originated from Afghanistan.

NEXT 24 HOURS
FORMER PM KHAN SAYS HIS HOUSE IS SURROUNDED, ARREST IS IMMINENT – The former PM issued several Tweets about threats of arrest. While a military detachment did cordon off his home, this was reportedly a response to a demand to turn over approximately 30-40 PTI followers who took part in arson and vandalism at military bases. A spokesman for the acting Punjab government said that no arrest warrant had been issued and that police and military forces would honor the High Court’s order that he remain free until 1400hrs local time on Thursday. After the Army roped off Khan’s residence, several PTI supporters began gathering in and around Zaman Park. The situation could rapidly deteriorate after the 1400hrs deadline passes today.

Posted by trailing wife 2023-05-19 02:32|| || Front Page|| [23 views ] Top
File under: Taliban/IEA

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