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2023-04-27 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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'It's worse than you thought.' Ukraine reveals the goals of the counteroffensive
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[RIA Novosti] Kyiv has been preparing a strike since the end of autumn, but every time it delays for a couple of months. And now, judging by the publications in the Western and Ukrainian media, the decisive spring battles have been moved to the summer. What is the reason for this - in the material of RIA Novosti.
WAITING FOR A MIRACLE
According to the forecast of the former director of the CIA and ex-commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, David Petraeus, Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive in late May - early June. He believes that the blow will be very strong and will allow cutting the land corridor to the Crimea. The Politico edition reported two directions: to the Crimea and from the north to the Donbass. In any case, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be in motion in May, the article says.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkura recalled the weather. In the spring, Ukrainians were prevented by rains. The Bild newspaper, citing leading NATO analysts, warned that everything would be decided in the next six months. The main battles will unfold in the LPR and the Zaporozhye region, the German edition claims.
Active actions have been expected from Kyiv for a long time. The Financial Times wrote back in December that the exhaustion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine deprived Ukraine of the chances of success in the winter campaign. It was necessary to replenish the arsenals and equip new units.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
In an April interview with El Pais, the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, Serhiy Melnyk, acknowledged the plight of the Ukrainian army. There is a lack of equipment and people, especially well-trained ones. The personnel units suffered heavy losses. At the same time, Melnik tried to convince the journalist that there was no forced mobilization, all the fighters were volunteers. Meanwhile, men are prohibited from traveling abroad, summons to the draft board are handed in anywhere.
CNN believes that even the reinforcement of Western tanks will not lead to an immediate turning point in the course of hostilities. First, Ukrainians need to learn how to drive cars. Secondly, it is difficult to establish a full-fledged maintenance.
Mark Milley, head of the Pentagon Chiefs of Staff Committee, urged Kyiv not to perceive American tanks as a "silver bullet". According to him, the M1 Abrams is the best combat vehicle in the world, but it will not be possible to win only with its help.
APPEARANCE OF SUCCESS
Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar assures that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already being attacked - in Bakhmut and Marinka. At the same time, she urged "not to publicly reduce the counteroffensive only to some kind of active offensive actions." Such operations include defensive battles, as well as the recruitment and training of new fighters.
The commander of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Alexander Syrsky, emphasizes that counterattacks in Bakhmut make it possible to contain Russia. In the oncoming battles there, Moscow allegedly loses the best units.
The head of the GUR, Kirill Budanov, said: before the end of spring, the Ukrainian army will enter the Crimea. "We still have time. Quite an achievable task," he explained.
According to him, Russia is sitting on the defensive, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be given a "decisive battle." Moscow will suffer irreparable losses. And there is no need to speculate on the pace and volume of Western arms deliveries - most have no idea about this, Budanov added.
UKRAINE IS WORTH PR
It is noteworthy that experts in both Russia and Ukraine consider talk of a counteroffensive more important in terms of PR than the real state of affairs on the battlefield. In particular, Ruslan Bortnyk, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, notes that rumors about an impending powerful strike allow Kyiv to beg for more help. In addition, the threat of an attack forces Moscow to form reserves and think about defense, without throwing everything it has into battle.
“However, if the promises of the Ukrainian leadership do not come true in the summer and the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not drink coffee in Crimea, closer to winter the propaganda will turn against its creators. The level of disappointment in statesmen will increase. In this case, Zelensky should have some kind of backup plan. the team will have to pass off local success as a strategic victory," Bortnik explained in an interview.
Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that Zelensky made a mistake when he started talking about a large-scale counteroffensive.
"Attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are possible only in certain directions, and it’s not a fact that we will be able to break through. Apparently, we are heading for a long-term positional confrontation, for which society is poorly prepared," the expert said.
Denis Denisov, an analyst at the Financial University under the Russian government, points out: if Kyiv had the opportunity to launch a counteroffensive, this would have happened in the winter. "A successful attack would confirm the correctness of the course towards the militarization of Ukraine and the effectiveness of economic assistance. Ukrainians would receive real proof that Zelensky is keeping his promises. But so far we are only hearing statements that are not supported by anything, and the conflict is becoming less intense, as in 2014-2015 m," he says.
In general, experts agree that so far there are no signs of preparations for a strike on Crimea. Zelensky will have to seriously change either military strategy or rhetoric. Otherwise, the high expectations of Ukrainians will bring down his rating.
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Posted by badanov 2023-04-27 00:00||
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