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2023-04-20 Afghanistan

Daily Evacuation Brief April 20, 2023

[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

UN BOMBSHELL IGNITES A FIRESTORM OVER RECOGNITION TALK – After Deputy Secretary General, Amina Mohammed announced that a meeting had been set in May to discuss the Afghanistan situation and that recognition of the Taliban would be on the agenda, near universal condemnation erupted from the Afghan diaspora and other international organizations. The UN had to clarify her comments and a spokesman later followed up with the press to explain the May meeting would attempt to “...put us back on the pathway to recognition…”. He went on to explain it would be a qualified pathway that would have conditions that would need to be met. While the knee-jerk reaction is understandable, it is important to consider that recognition is the strongest leverage the UN and the international community possess and a better thought-out approach is needed. We assess it would be highly unlikely that women’s rights, an inclusive government, and other stipulations that have continually been announced by neighbors and the international community would not be chief among those conditions.

US OVERSIGH HEARINGS CAUSE AN UPROAR – Wedged in between all the political gamesmanship in the US House oversight committee hearings on Wednesday was a warning from the SIGAR Chief that economic aid being supplied to Afghanistan lacks oversight and may be going to the Taliban. The news is not new to Afghans and those who have been following the crisis, but it will likely be a point of contention going forward and there are already some calls to cancel the economic aid in total. The hearings do not seem as if they will prove to be productive and have degenerated into partisanship with Democrats trying to deflect blame for the debacle and Republicans attempting to crucify Biden for the botched withdrawal. The US State Department will likely come up as the biggest loser out of the hearings as it has repeatedly failed to adequately account for budgetary items and can’t seem to comply with even simple requests for information.

UNEXPLODED MINE CLAIMS 3 LIVES IN LOGAR PROVINCE – A blast was reported in the Mohammad Agha District and 3 people were killed by a landmine that is thought to have been a remnant of the Soviet invasion. 2 of the victims were men and 1 was a woman.

PANJSHIR PROFESSOR ARRESTED, ACCUSED OF COLLABORATION WITH NRF – The Chair of the Sharia Law department at the State University of Panjshir has reputedly been arrested on charges of providing support to the National Resistance Front. It is believed he was detained on Wednesday and is being held in an undisclosed location.

NEXT 24 HOURS

TALIBAN BANNING WOMEN'S GATHERINGS DURING EID – The Taliban have issued bans on traditional gatherings for women during the holiday. The bans are said to have come from the supreme leader and imams have been instructed to relay the directives during prayers. We have only confirmed the bans will be in effect in Takhar and Baghlan at this time. However, we expect other Provinces to have received similar instructions and that Taliban security forces have been ordered to police potential infractions. The instructions also ban the playing of several games and forbid people to go to places of mourning.

POSSIBLE TERROR ATTACKS AND/OR COMBAT OPERATIONS – While the Ramadan period has passed without any major security incidents, it is possible that ISIS-K or other groups could have an operation planned to disrupt Eid and capture international attention. It is also possible that Taliban and Resistance forces could begin hostilities in earnest after Ramadan. With the recent announcement by the UN about possible recognition of the Taliban, we feel that Resistance forces will be motivated to launch operations in an attempt to display instability to the international community before the May meetings. An unconfirmed report was received which stated that ISIS-K was planning another attack on the Pakistani envoy or embassy. It is believed the envoy is staying at the Serena Hotel near the Airport since his return. This information has not been confirmed yet.

Posted by trailing wife 2023-04-20 03:07|| || Front Page|| [14 views ] Top
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