Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[REGNUM] Western publications assure that the upcoming elections will be "the most difficult test for Erdogan in the last 20 years." In doing so, they refer to the results of surveys conducted by various centers. Their accuracy depends on methods, coverage and other parameters. Because of this, there is a discrepancy in the results
Exactly one month later, on May 14, presidential and parliamentary elections are to be held in Turkey. They are held ahead of time. Initially, the elections were scheduled for June 18, and there is a lot of historical symbolism in their transfer.
"THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN"
On May 14, 1950, the first free multi-party elections in the country were won by the "Democratic Party" by a wide margin and the 27-year-old monopoly of the Kemalist Republican People's Party was ended. The government was led by Adnan Menderes . His premiership was marked not only by a significant recovery of the country's economy, but also by the strengthening of authoritarian tendencies, nationalist rhetoric and the growing influence of Islam.
As a result of the 27 May 1960 coup organized by Cemal Gürsel, Menderes was removed from his post, arrested, found guilty of high treason and corruption, violating the Constitution, sentenced to death and hanged. Together with him, Foreign Minister Fatin Rüstiu Zorlu and Finance Minister Hassan Polatkan were executed . The day of their execution in Turkey is called the "Day of Shame" and "Black Day."
The current President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, believes that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) headed by him is the successor of the ideas of Menderes' Democratic Party, and declares that voters today, after 73 years, “ must once again say to the opposition coalition - enough!." Erdogan also alludes to the failed coup on July 16, 2016.
As the British magazine The Economist writes,
"This is due to the fact that in the West they began to transfer the fate of Menderes to Erdogan," pointing to the "fragility of Turkish democracy ”, the president’s desire to “ rewrite history for himself, turning it into a political weapon to achieve certain goals in domestic and foreign policy."
At the same time, it is emphasized that “ the execution of Menderes created a precedent: over the next four decades, the armed forces overthrew three more governments, and this process in Turkey has not yet been completed - if a civil coup does not succeed now, then an armed coup is possible."
It is no coincidence that the Turkish newspaper Milli Gazete compares Erdogan with Menderes, who " made an attempt to turn the country's foreign policy away from the West and was removed from his post ."
Of course, historical parallels are always arbitrary.
But Erdogan conducts them in order to evoke the necessary historical associations among the citizens of the country before the elections, which, according to many Turkish experts, is “the main feature of the current election campaign, which is being built by the ruling coalition according to the rules of political engineering.”
THE ALIGNMENT OF POLITICAL FORCES
On April 11, the Turkish High Electoral Commission considered the issue of compliance with the legislation of candidates' applications for participation in the parliamentary elections. Pre-election lists have been formed. Electorally, the country today is quite fragmented, so politicians are forced to form alliances in an attempt to consolidate the votes of voters on their platform as much as possible.
The main struggle, according to many experts, will unfold between the opposition Millet ittifakı (“National Alliance” or “People's Alliance”), otherwise known as the “Table of Six”, according to the number of parties included in it, and the pro-presidential coalition led by the ruling Justice and Development Party. Accordingly, in the presidential elections, the two main candidates between whom the main struggle is unfolding are Erdogan and the leader of the "Table of Six", the head of the Republican People's Party (CHP) Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
In addition to them, Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan were admitted to the elections. They have no chance of winning, but how many votes they draw for themselves will determine whether one of the race leaders will be able to score more than 50% (and, therefore, win in the first round).
Muharrem Ince was a CHP nominee in the 2018 presidential election, and then left the party and created his own political force - Memleket ("Motherland").
As for Ogan, a candidate for the so-called "Father's Coalition" (Ata Alliance), which includes five right-wing parties, he was previously a member of the Nationalist Movement Party, which is now part of the ruling coalition. He is fluent in Russian, defended his doctoral dissertation at MGIMO and studied Russia, Ukraine and the Caucasus at the Turkish ASAM center.
Experts believe that those who refused to nominate their candidate, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and the two leftist forces that joined it, may have a greater influence on the outcome of the elections. In the 2014 and 2018 elections, they nominated Selyakhattin Demirtas for president , and in 2018 the politician was already in pre-trial detention and campaigned from a prison cell. Right now Demirtas cannot participate, but about 10% of HDP supporters are very likely to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu. That's not a lot.
In Turkey, there is an opinion that the opposition does not so much want to take power as it seeks to continue to "oppose" the current leadership. Indirectly, this is also evidenced by the diversity of the opposition: nationalists, Islamists, supporters of European aspirations, pro-Westernists, Kemalists, Pan-Turkists, anti-Westernists, and so on, find themselves together.
Against this background, the “Erdogan coalition” looks like a more cohesive force.
Western publications assure that the upcoming elections will be "the most difficult test for Erdogan in the last 20 years." In doing so, they refer to the results of surveys conducted by various centers. Their accuracy depends on methodologies, coverage and other parameters. Because of this, there is a discrepancy in the results: there is an impression of a possible victory in the elections either by the opposition alliance or by the ruling coalition led by Erdogan.
Therefore, one can speak about the general trend of political preferences of Turkish voters only conditionally.
All sociological services, even openly sympathizing with one of the candidates, agree that there are many undecided voters. The Turkish electorate is emotional, and a lot will depend on the real steps taken by both the opposition and Erdogan's team at the finish line before the elections.
SOFTWARE BATTLE
Erdogan said the May 14 elections will be "a turning point in the history of the country" as the program he proposed will be vital to the implementation of the "Turkey Centenary" strategy. The main idea is to make Turkey one of the world leaders in political and economic terms.
So the president initially raises the political bar for the elections, linking them to the high international rating of the country and imposing discussions on the opposition in this direction.
Now the voice of Turkey in the international arena has become louder. It issues ultimatums to major powers, conducts military operations and, based on national interests, does not join Western sanctions against Russia. For an ordinary Turk, seeing such manifestations of the strength of his homeland is an effective enough emotional argument to be proud of, including the incumbent president.
The opposition does not demonstrate such geopolitical ambitions, stating that “ Erdogan is only conducting a dangerous geopolitical experiment on all platforms at once: in the Eastern Mediterranean, in Syria, Iraq, Libya and the Caucasus, without having the appropriate economic resources for this”, and “ exit out of the situation, including in solving acute socio-economic problems, only in returning to the West.
At the same time, the opposition considers the presidential system introduced after the 2017 referendum to be the root of all troubles, and raises the question of returning to the format of a parliamentary republic.
In order to bring down Erdogan's game on traditional values and geopolitical symbolism, the opponents of the incumbent president are trying to turn the discussion into an economic plane, pointing to high inflation and a drop in the living standards of citizens.
Erdogan is accused of "showing a weak response to the devastating February earthquakes that killed more than 48,000 people," that he "did not prepare the country enough for the cataclysm," although seismic Turkey is not the first to face such natural disasters.
But Erdogan, without entering into disputes with the opposition, did something that had never happened before: he publicly repented. He asked for a year to restore the housing stock, and the foundations have already begun in the provinces (promises to build 319,000 houses). At the same time, the president unequivocally hinted that the opposition, in case of victory, would not be able to deal effectively with this.
However, the Turkish leader does not have to worry much about this: the affected regions - with rare exceptions - traditionally support the president or the Nationalist Movement Party allied to him.
Ankara spent a record 1.4% of its budget on social assistance in 2022, including energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage and a pension reform that allowed more than 2 million residents to retire immediately.
According to Erdogan, "the May 14 elections will also be Turkey's message to the West ." According to him, " we are now busy with our own affairs, in the defense industry, our level of self-sufficiency has reached 80%, and this is a success, a turning point."
In recent years, Erdogan's policy has been aimed at emphasizing Turkey's "special role" as a mediator between West and East, pushing its own agenda in the Middle East.
Surrounded by Kılıçdaroglu, they claim that if they win the elections, the opposition will "strive for equal relations with Moscow, but will remind it of Turkey's membership in NATO." Therefore, it is possible that the coming to power of the opposition will change the course of the state in the opposite direction.
Such thoughts are prompted by the statements of Foreign Policy Adviser Kılıçdaroğlu, Unal Cevikez , who claims that if the People's Coalition wins, Ankara can unfreeze the negotiations on the country's accession to the European Union, which were interrupted many years ago.
DEVELOPMENT OF EVENTS
It seems that the determining factor in the elections will be the leadership qualities of both Erdogan, his ability to hold the reins of power and control the situation, as well as the leaders of the opposition.
Personal positioning of candidates is very important.
Erdogan has accumulated vast political experience, he knows how to turn negative things to his advantage. He also makes good use of the current political chaos in the West due to the Ukrainian crisis, realizing, as the London edition of the Financial Times writes, that he is still "walking a fine line."
As for Kılıçdaroğlu, his position is not as strong as he would like, because he was not nominated as a candidate the first time, and a number of important opposition parties were not attracted to the coalition. In this regard, the opposition so far acts only as a political extra, a few steps late in its actions. It has no clear solutions to key economic and political issues, it ignores existing geopolitical realities and has no vision of Turkey's future.
But the election battle is only getting hotter, and lots of wild cards could be thrown onto the stage. New intrigues are also expected.
So, a third party joined the ruling coalition, the conservative renewed "Prosperity", which is able to play a role in the alignment of political forces.
The situation remains unstable, many things will be decided literally in the last days before the vote. Many factors will influence the results: the development of the plot with earthquakes, and new foreign policy maneuvers in relation to Iran and Syria, and the economic situation. So, a month before the elections, their results are still difficult to predict.
April 14, 2023
Stanislav Tarasov
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