Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[REGNUM] Moscow does not believe that any country in Western Europe could mediate in hypothetical negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This is how the Russian Foreign Ministry assessed Xi Jinping's remark - the Chinese leader said that Beijing is ready to support France's proposals for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. China itself is much more suited to the role of arbitrator, experts say. They name three more potential candidates. Which one looks the most suitable?
France can hardly claim to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, since it is itself indirectly involved in the conflict on the side of the Kiev regime, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 10.
This message can be considered Moscow's commentary on Chinese leader Xi Jinping's remark. During a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, the Chinese President said that Beijing welcomes the proposals of Paris on a political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and is ready to support them.
The Russian Foreign Ministry is also very skeptical about the idea of Western mediation. The US, France, UK and Germany are hardly suitable for such a role, as they "imposed illegal sanctions against Russia, blocked its foreign assets, demand a tribunal to punish the Russian leadership" and "blackmail our friends, forbidding them to cooperate with Russia ," the statement was quoted as saying. MFA RIA Novosti.
The head of the diplomatic department, Sergei Lavrov, earlier, however, did not rule out the possibility that mediators could bring some benefit.
"You can ask any mediator to clarify how the Ukrainian side sees the further development of events," TASS quoted Lavrov as saying. At the same time, Aleksey Polishchuk, director of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that if negotiations are resumed, then most likely without intermediaries, since in the West "they often pursue their own goals and try to influence the course of negotiations."
There is an opinion that if it is time to look for intermediaries, then not in the West, but in the East.
CHINA
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, in his March address to parliament, called for Beijing to mediate between Moscow and Kiev.
In Beijing itself, this is still treated without much enthusiasm. Although, according to the foreign policy curator at the CPC Central Committee, former Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, his country is ready to "continue to play a constructive role in promoting reconciliation and stimulating negotiations, and work with the international community to carry out the necessary mediation if necessary." In the West, they do not really believe in such a development of events - skepticism about Chinese peacekeeping was expressed by the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell.
"In the asset, as well as in the asset of Russia, the reconciliation of Saudi Arabia with Yemen, as well as the beginning of the path towards reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And activity in the role of such an intermediary was not alien to Beijing. China will show particular zeal in this direction, especially since this has a good effect on its reputation," Alexey Mukhin, general director of the Center for Political Information, suggested in a comment to REGNUM news agency.
The arbiter must have geopolitical (economic, military-strategic) weight, be not involved in the conflict and guarantee the seriousness of the parties' intentions. The United States and European countries are clearly not suitable for this role due to bias, but China is quite, Mukhin believes.
The director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov, is skeptical about the scenario of "Xi Jinping as an arbitrator." Beijing will agree to the role of a mediator only if an agreement is initially guaranteed, the expert believes.
"Perhaps he is interested in increasing his diplomatic role, but only if the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are successful. For to fit into the negotiations and not achieve a result - such a scenario is unacceptable for Beijing, - Lukyanov told REGNUM news agency. - And it is impossible to speak about guarantees in this case. Most likely, the PRC will continue to act as a big, wise herald for peace, who admonishes everyone."
INDIA
"The government of India is already debating what role the country can play in the peace effort when the time is right," The New York Times noted in November 2022.
Sources of the American publication said: French President Macron had previously discussed this topic with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. True, the French guest failed to convey to the interlocutor the position of Western partners on concrete steps to "de-escalate the conflict," the NYT notes.
At the same time, the publication recalls that during the Cold War, India positioned herself as a leader in the non -alignment movement. Now, when the country not only catch up with China in terms of population, but also reached 5th place in terms of economics, New Delhi "tries to balance its connections," increasing contacts with the United States and maintaining partnership with Russia as a key reliable supplier of energy carriers and weapons.
"India, along with Turkey and China, is the best place to mediate. At the same time, Türkiye has been involved in this role from the very beginning. But if New Delhi only hoped to act as a mediator, then Beijing simply took it and only in recent weeks made two high-profile visits to Moscow, setting out, moreover, China's point of view on the prospects for a political settlement," said Indian political scientist Atul Mishra in an article published April 10 Hindustan Times (translated by InoSMI ).
China's weight in the negotiation issue was "recognized even by the Europeans," which was confirmed by India's "good friend" Emmanuel Macron, the expert points out. Mishra lamented that such passivity indicates that New Delhi's influence on Moscow is limited compared to Beijing's.
But it is obvious that India is not currently striving for the role of a great diplomatic power and does not need participation in any large-scale negotiation processes, Fyodor Lukyanov believes.
TURKEY
Ankara has indeed been involved in the role of a mediator for a long time. Let us recall the meeting of Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Dmitry Kuleba as part of a diplomatic forum on March 10, 2022 in Antalya and the negotiations of the Moscow and Kiev delegations in Istanbul that followed in March-April of the same year (frozen at the initiative of the Ukrainian side).
In September last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during negotiations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin , called for "give a chance" to negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, in which Ankara could become a mediator, RIA Novosti reported.
On March 29, Erdogan reiterated his readiness to organize negotiations "for the speedy end of the conflict."
On April 10, the head of Turkish diplomacy, Mevlut Cavusoglu, announced that Erdogan was negotiating with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. At the same time, the Turkish Foreign Minister noted that neither the visit of the Russian president to Ankara, nor Erdogan's visit to Moscow is planned yet.
"If it comes to the negotiation phase, then today Turkey is an obvious candidate for the role of a mediator," Lukyanov believes. - She is already speaking in this role on more local topics. Erdogan surprisingly maintains a constructive relationship with all parties involved. Both with Ukraine and Russia. Turkey under Erdogan is ideally suited to the role of an intermediary for all tactical and technical characteristics.”
But, the political scientist noted, if the power in Turkey changes during the presidential elections in May and another group of politicians becomes the head of the country, then everything will become more complicated.
"Because Erdogan's strength is, first of all, the presence of a trusting relationship, first of all, with Putin. By definition, the new president of Turkey will not have such relations,” Lukyanov pointed out.
KAZAKHSTAN
Finally, the fourth potential candidate - Kazakhstan - has not only the experience of the owner of the negotiation platform, but also the experience of success. Negotiations in Astana on a settlement in Syria, which began in 2017, have become an important part in, if not stopping, then freezing the Syrian conflict. Of course, the mediation of the guarantor countries - Russia, Turkey and Iran - played a decisive role, but Kazakh President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev in any case acquired the laurels of a peacemaker.
On March 1, 2022, Tokayev said that Kazakhstan was ready to act as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine if necessary, TASS reported. Two weeks later, Roman Vasilenko, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic, confirmed his readiness to promote a peaceful settlement "through mediation services."
Experts, however, believe that Astana is unlikely to undertake such work. “Kazakhstan has been flirting with the United States very much lately. And there are reasons to doubt the non-engagement of this site. Kazakhstan is pursuing a policy of following the illegal sanctions regime that the United States has established in the global economy, and trusting him as a mediator would be the height of hindsight," Mukhin said.
To some extent, Lukyanov shares these doubts. He urged not to forget that this topic is rather explosive for Kazakhstan. On the one hand, the one who gets involved in this work can achieve success and gain great fame, but, on the contrary, can ruin relations with both. "Kazakhstan does not need this at all, especially since Kazakhstan’s relations with Russia are now quite nervous," Lukyanov said.
In any case, the "casting of intermediaries" is a nonsensical process, experts believe.
"Presidents, in addition to being politicians, are also people. There is no emotional background for a direct conversation. Therefore, if the conditions for a political conversation ever ripen, then a mediator, a mediator, will be needed. We need someone who organizes the communication process itself. At least for starters. The same grain deal shows such a mechanism," Lukyanov believes.
April 11, 2023
Ivan Zhurenkov
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