Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Maxim Sokolov
[RIA]  The US Treasury Secretary, and before that, the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, during the hearings in Congress, once again indicated that a possible default in the country would lead to a loss of confidence on the part of international partners both in the US and in the dollar as a reserve currency. And she added that raising the debt ceiling without preconditions is a tough necessity.
Thus, Yellen believes that the traditional butting in Congress regarding the ceiling of the national debt (the party in power at the moment assures that the ceiling should be raised; the opposition insists that it is not necessary, along the way putting forward various demands that are not directly related to the debt) in the current difficult time may be tolerant. As the titan of thought and the father of democracy I. M. Vorobyaninov noted, "bargaining is inappropriate here."
As far as one can understand, the head of the US Treasury believes that now butts may end not with a lobbying deal that more or less satisfies everyone - and so on until next year, when the cycle repeats - but with the collapse of the dollar, and such an outcome of lobbying games will not satisfy anyone. After all, the dollar as a reserve currency is the palladium of the American power, but if the dollar loses this honorary title, then the prospects for the United States become uncertain.
Thus, the economist M. L. Khazin, with his relentless "ceterum censeo, the dollar will end badly," received powerful ideological support from the US Treasury.
Billionaire O. V. Deripaska blew the same tune: “The situation in America, of course, is very, very problematic. Reckless militarization, sanctions on anyone and adventurous military actions around the world have already cost this country almost 33 trillion dollars. more for free. So they will argue in Congress how to quietly raise another debt ceiling. But then there's this problem of almost unsecured deposits of $ 17 trillion in regional banks. Something tells me that the filly will not stand it."
Will survive, will not survive - it's hard to say. “In the long run,” as the economist J. M. Keynes noted, “we are all dead.”
| Ohhhhhhh.... philosophy! That’s deep, man. |
And the dollar is also not eternal. Here , a simple consideration is relevant, which A. I. Solzhenitsyn shared with the leaders of the Soviet Union back in 1973 : in the heat of the moment, they would find time to consult with him: that a dozen worms cannot endlessly gnaw on the same apple.
Whereas American foreign and defense policy was and is based precisely on the fact that one and the same apple can be gnawed now, and forever, and forever and ever. Just now, the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley , said: "The United States will have to double its defense budget if the conflict in Ukraine brings down the rules-based world order." For a general to increase the budget of the Pentagon from one trillion to two - just go to the bath. Whether or not Cassandra Yellen thinks so is unknown.
Moreover, by the nature of her service, she thinks not in long-term categories, but in the most short-term ones, thinking, like the commander Kutuzov at the council in Fili: "I see that I will have to pay for broken pots." The Fed has long been not entirely healthy, but finally it rushed over the bumps, declaring a policy of "helicopter money" (that is, generously and countlessly scattered as if from a helicopter).
The first "helicopter" was the head of the Fed in 2006-2014, Ben Bernanke, he was succeeded by Yellen. But Bernanke's genius was also in the fact that he managed to escape in time, becoming a world-famous scientist and professor, even awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2022 - just for substantiating "helicopter finance", which is necessary and useful. Whereas Yellen is deprived of the opportunity to go into the bushes - and she will have to answer for herself and for that guy.
Of course, this has happened before. This August will be exactly a quarter of a century since the deep monetarists defaulted in Russia. The head of the Central Bank , S. K. Dubinin, lost his post, as well as his deputy, S. V. Aleksashenko, who was responsible for the placement of GKOs. A. B. Chubais was transferred from finance to electricity. Of course, in 1998, no one considered the ruble an unshakable reserve currency, while the dollar in 2023 is still considered by many to be. But the chronicles of 1998 and 2023 have something in common. All financial collapses are somewhat similar to each other.
The behavior of deep economists is also about the same. After the default of 1998, they calmed down for a while. In 2020, S. M. Guriev, V. L. Inozemtsev, K. I. Sonin, and the eternal S. V. Aleksashenko ardently approved of throwing money around and just as hotly criticized Russian financiers for their lack of zeal in throwing money around. Today they - in accordance with tradition - suddenly disappeared somewhere. Like in a fairy tale, when the devil comes for a person. But, unlike the victim of the unclean, advanced economists, of course, will soon return and will teach us further.
Although it is not known how the current banking crisis in the West will end and what will become of the dollar. Perhaps the apocalyptic prophecies of M. L. Khazin will finally come true. And perhaps there will be thunder not from a cloud, but from a dunghill, and the sorcerers from the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury will once again dodge.
True, even if now once again it turns out that the dream is terrible, yes God is merciful, the question of whether it is possible to rule the world steadily and forever by means of a printing press will remain open.
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