Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[REGNUM] There are several scenarios according to which the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can develop.
Western countries launched the largest campaign for the supply of military equipment and weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the entire time of the conflict. The authorities of Finland, Norway, Poland, and Spain announced their intention to supply Ukraine with modern tanks. Germany and the United States are expected to join the coalition. NATO does not hide the fact that they plan to prepare the Ukrainian army for the start of a large-scale offensive operation. Where can the Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to strike?
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) will most likely use the tanks that Western countries plan to supply in the southern and Kupyansk directions, since there are the most favorable conditions for this, retired Lieutenant Colonel of the People's Militia of the LPR Andrei Marochko said on Wednesday on the TV channel "Star."
Wow. They retired Marochko. He was Lugansk's military spokesman beginning in 2016. I think the Ukrainian tactical commanders using the Leopards as designed is a far fetched assumption. The calculus changes once the tank is hit by solid shot or an RPG.
Kupyanskoye (north-west of the LPR - east of the Kharkov region) and the southern directions are distinguished by the fact that there “there is very good logistics, there are routes, there is where to hide this equipment," Marochko quoted TASS .
On the contrary, Western heavy armored vehicles are not suitable for military operations in the Avdievka area near Donetsk, since “not everything can be done so covertly in this particular direction,” the retired colonel said.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny had previously announced plans to launch an offensive. In an interview with The Economist, he said that in order to carry out an offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, additional supplies of military equipment are needed, which the collective West promises to supply.
As a military expert, reserve colonel and editor-in-chief of the Anna News military analytical agency Anatoly Matviychuk noted in a commentary to REGNUM , the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently focused on replenishing their losses incurred during the autumn-winter battles. A possible offensive may not begin until mid-spring.
“The optimal time for the offensive, in principle, is the end of spring - the beginning of summer. Somewhere by this time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to restore the losses, just as the units that are now being trained in the UK, Poland and other countries will return to Ukraine. That is, the estimated date of such an offensive is the end of April - the beginning of May," the expert noted.
The range of supplies of Western weapons also speaks of the offensive nature of the upcoming operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The latest package of American military assistance included 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers with 20 LWMR (Light Weight Mine Roller) light roller mine trawls.
Mine rollers of this model are installed on Stryker ESV (Engineer Support Vehicle) engineering vehicles. Based on these facts, experts conclude that at least 20 armored personnel carriers, which are planned for delivery from the United States, may be engineering vehicles, whose task is to pave the way for infantry and tanks through minefields. This fact suggests that the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their foreign advisers are planning an operation to break through the fortified front line.
In particular, we can talk about an attempt to break through in the Zaporozhye region, where powerful defensive structures are now being created.
"Why Zaporozhye? Because in the Kharkiv direction they, as it seems to them, ruled out the possibility of the region joining Russia. In the Kherson region, they occupied the regional center, and the offensive would require forcing a water barrier - the Dnieper. And in this direction, in Zaporozhye, in my opinion, the priority task for them is the capture of Melitopol," Matviychuk believes.
"The occupation of Melitopol, according to the Kyiv strategists, would allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to achieve a number of tasks to block the Crimea, the military expert notes. “They cut the land route from Russia, they take control of the supply of water to the peninsula. And, most importantly, they get conditional fire control over the Crimean bridge, because if they reach the coast of the Sea of Azov, they can fire at it with the help of missile systems supplied from the United States, and attack with drones," assumes Matviychuk.
According to the expert, there are several options by which such an offensive can develop.
The first one provides for the advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the settlement of Vasilyevka along the banks of the Dnieper to Energodar in order to take control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant with a possible landing in the city.
The second option involves a breakthrough "short" to Melitopol through Tokmok.
The third scenario looks more ambitious, as it provides for a breakthrough through the Pologi towards Berdyansk in an attempt to cut off the Zaporozhye region from the DPR.
At the same time, according to the expert, the failure of the Ukrainian offensive will call into question further deliveries of military equipment from NATO.
“Because they have an acute question of the prestige of their technology. If we burn it while trying to attack, their reputation will be seriously damaged. The United States especially promotes its weapons to world markets, it is very important for them to have a good image. So they are now putting everything on the line. And it is extremely important that they fail. Because if they prepare a second such offensive, it will not be very soon, and failure will seriously reduce their confidence in their abilities," summarizes Matviychuk.
WHAT SUPPLIES IS KYIV NOW COUNTING ON?
On Tuesday , The Wall Street Journal reported that the US administration is leaning in favor of transferring a significant number of American M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
As the newspaper notes, this step by Washington will become part of an agreement with Germany - it provides for the allocation of a small number of German Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv, as well as Berlin's consent to the supply of German-made tanks by Poland and other countries.
Following the WSJ, Politico , citing representatives of the White House, reported that the United States could send Ukraine at least 30 Abrams tanks as military assistance. Military equipment will be purchased, not allocated from existing stocks. US President Joe Biden could announce such a decision as early as Wednesday, Politico announces. The fact that Biden is ready to report on the supply of Abrams was also reported by Al Jazeera.
This information appeared simultaneously with reports from several NATO countries (and alliance candidate states) about their readiness to transfer modern tanks to Kyiv. So, on Tuesday, January 24, Finnish President Sauli Niiniste visited Kiev , who proposed to transfer to the Armed Forces of Ukraine part of the Leopard tanks at the disposal of the Finnish army. At the same time, Niiniste stressed that for real assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is necessary to form a large “tank coalition”.
The Spanish authorities are thinking about the desire to join such a coalition. According to El Pais, Madrid is considering the transfer of Leopard 2A4 tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are in storage with the Spanish army. The publication notes that we can talk about the transfer of about a hundred cars.
The Lisbon newspaper Correio da Manhã writes that the Portuguese authorities are also ready to join the coalition, which can allocate up to four tanks out of 47 in service for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Norway is ready to provide eight more Leopard 2A4NO tanks, according to Dagens Næringsliv .
The decisive word in this matter belongs to the German authorities, who, according to Der Spiegel, also intend to join the supply after lengthy disputes in the country's government. According to the publication, one company (14 vehicles) of Leopard 2A6 tanks will be transferred as part of the first batch of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
As REGNUM reported earlier, German-made tanks have a number of technical advantages that make them a serious enemy on the battlefield. According to military expert Alexander Mikhailovsky, the supply of modern armored vehicles is taking place as part of the preparations for the alleged offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Recall that earlier NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced new offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine this spring. According to him, hundreds of armored vehicles that will be delivered to Ukraine will allow Kyiv "not only to defend itself, but also to launch its own offensive in order to recapture the territories."
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