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2022-11-24 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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About the course of the NWO. 11/23/2022
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Commentary except where noted from Russian military blogger Kotenok
[ColonelCassad] Answers to the question about the course of the SVO for the military correspondent Kotenok's channel.
1. In mid-November, the front stood up. Who benefits from this - Russia, which saturates the battle formations with mobilized ones, or Ukraine, where Western weapons are flowing in a continuous stream?
The front stopped in November for objective reasons. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are saving up forces for the winter campaign, and this is a completely conscious choice made back in October.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, in turn, tried to build on the successes achieved, which led to a partial depletion of reserves, which is why operations in the Svatovsky and Krasnolimansky directions have long entered the saturation phase and the costs are not compensated by the results achieved, which in fact are absent (Svatovo was planned to be taken back on October 17). In addition, deteriorating weather, mud and rain make fighting difficult, which is felt by both sides.
It can be expected that in winter hostilities will intensify, and both sides will try to attack. For these tasks, not only the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but also the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now increasing their capabilities. So this formal "operational pause" will not last long.
2. In conditions of calm, the Dnieper became a certain boundary, especially in the lower reaches. How tangible is the military threat in Crimea in the event of a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern direction?
Of course, if we allow the enemy to force the Dnieper and create a full-fledged bridgehead on the left bank, this will create a direct threat to the communications of the Russian Armed Forces grouping in the northern Black Sea region, as well as to the land corridor to the peninsula, which will greatly devalue Russia’s strategic success with the creation of a land corridor and create a threat to the northern Crimea.
But it seems that the main stake of the enemy will still be on the offensive in the Zaporozhye direction in the direction of Pologi and Tokmak, and the activity on the Dnieper will be of an auxiliary nature. The local goals of the enemy at the moment are to land troops on the Kinburn Spit and gain a foothold there, as well as to expand the activity of the DRG on the left bank of the Dnieper. Plus, intensify strikes against the ammunition depots and fuels and lubricants of the Russian group on the left bank.
3. What measures should be taken to deprive Kyiv of the initiative in the Black Sea area, taking into account the military-technical capabilities of the enemy and the transfer of intelligence information by the West, despite the fact that we can only rely on ourselves and are limited in a number of technologies and weapons?
It is necessary to strengthen control over the movement of the enemy along the Dnieper, counter-sabotage measures in the coastal strip, intensify attacks on Kherson (which is already happening) and Ochakov, consistently carry out the tactics of dispersing ammunition and fuel depots, strengthen the CTO regime and filtering in front-line areas on the left bank. The line along the Dnieper is of strategic importance for the RF Armed Forces - a breakthrough of this line can have operational and strategic consequences and affect the outcome of the war, so the issues of ensuring the stability of this line should be taken seriously.
4. Residents of the Belgorod region are asking when the shelling that makes life unbearable will stop. How adequate are the statements of a number of analysts that it is necessary now to return the bridgeheads in the north of the Kharkov region, lost as a result of the withdrawal of our troops?
Most of the shelling can be stopped only as a result of the occupation of the northern regions of the Kharkov region. This will eliminate the threat of mortar shelling and reduce the effect of artillery shelling of the Belgorod Region. Of course, the enemy will be able to bombard the border areas of the region with missiles and long-range artillery, but the current situation will no doubt be eliminated. Of course, the offensive in the north of the Kharkov region must be properly prepared in order to guarantee the recapture of Volchansk, Kupyansk and a number of other settlements. Refusal of offensive actions in this direction will lead to the fact that shelling in the routinization mode will continue further.
5. Recently, a statement was thrown in that the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the Bryansk direction along the Kyiv highway could reach Moscow within 24 hours. Is it really possible? Can Kyiv bet on such an operation from a political point of view?
No, this is not possible at this stage. The Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction do not have enough forces for such an attack. On the contrary, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation would benefit from such a strike in the current situation, since this would allow to grind a significant part of the enemy’s strike units. But I think the enemy will not give us such a gift.
Nevertheless, local operations with the aim of occupying a couple of settlements on the territory of the Russian Federation are quite possible.
Their main goal will not be military, but political, in order to disperse the "zradocase" in our country and play the card of the inability of the RF Armed Forces to protect the territory of the Russian Federation. This scenario, in my opinion, is quite possible and is being considered by the enemy, and this may concern not only the Belgorod, but also the Bryansk region. Stopping such scenarios in the bud is possible when occupying the north of the Kharkiv region, as well as the northern regions of the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. This not only stops the threat of such enemy activity, but also reduces the intensity of shelling of the border regions of the Russian Federation.
6. An extremely tense situation is developing in the region of the Poland-Belarus-Ukraine triangle. What threatens a possible escalation and who exactly is ready to "strike a match" by becoming its initiator?
The United States is bringing the match, increasing the likelihood of a direct military clash between the Russian Federation and NATO, including in the area of the "Polish Corridor". The accumulation of NATO forces in Poland and the Baltics, coupled with the increased presence of US strike platforms in the region, can be interpreted, among other things, as preparation for a hot scenario, if the US is confident that it will not lead to an exchange of nuclear strikes.
Only the presence of nuclear weapons in the Russian Federation keeps NATO and the United States from attacking Kaliningrad and Belarus. But even in this case, one can hear the opinions of representatives of the American generals that there is no need to be afraid of Moscow's nuclear weapons, that it will not use them. It also shows that scenarios for a direct war against Russia are on the table and preparations for their possible implementation are under way, by building the military capabilities necessary for such a war in Eastern Europe, which may become sufficient in the summer of 2023. I would not underestimate this threat.
7. A very heavy impression was left by the footage of the execution of Russian prisoners of war. How to respond to such cruelty and, in general, where is everything going?
In practice, this will lead to the fact that a significant part of Ukrainian prisoners of war will lose the opportunity to simply surrender. Even if the command forbids, a molecular response on the ground is inevitable. So the killers of unarmed prisoners of war, in fact, along with Russian prisoners of war, also killed a certain number of Ukrainian soldiers, who in other circumstances could have been taken prisoner, but now they will not be taken. However, this is exactly what the instigators of the conflict from Washington and London need, more blood - more profit. Of course, Russia must do everything necessary to find and destroy the people involved, as is done in the case of the militants of Basayev or Khattab, who are still being caught and killed/imprisoned. It is better to destroy, and then again what exchanges. It is better for sure that the enemy knows that the punishment for such a thing is death. No more and no less.
8. After the appearance of this video, some bloggers spoke in the vein that one should not feel sorry for the killed prisoners, since they themselves laid down their arms, while their colleague, at the cost of his life, tried to take several militants with him to the grave. Do you agree with this approach?
The circumstances of the surrender are not fully known. And you can't get into someone else's head. Once surrounded, a soldier has the opportunity to either fight to the end or surrender, counting on compliance with the terms of the Geneva Convention. As you can see (it was actually clear before), Ukraine does not comply with the Geneva Convention, just like Nazi Germany did not comply with it. This fact should be brought to the attention of the military, especially the mobilized, which should certainly increase the desire to fight in even difficult situations, since everyone should understand that you can be tortured or killed in captivity by the Nazis and you should not rely on the Geneva Convention. This war crime simply reaffirmed that obvious truth.
9. Iran, which has become one of Russia's significant partners, continues to "flame", and the "Azerbaijani card" is being actively played. How strong are the positions of the Islamic Republic in terms of maintaining the regime and the integrity of the state?
Iran is now under a powerful attack, where the enemy is striving with all his might to destabilize Iran and, with a successful set of circumstances, achieve a change in the political regime, using for this purpose Iran's objectively existing problems with the economy, social sphere and protest moods. Iran is an important country for both Russia and China, so the destabilization of Iran is an indirect blow to both Russia and China. Different means are used for this - the factors of ethnic Azerbaijanis, Baluchis, Iranian Kurds, urban intelligentsia, etc. are involved. If the regime fails and floats, it will be a variation of the Syrian events of 2012-2013. The authorities are ready to demonstrate toughness and, if necessary, are ready to kill a significant number of protesters and militants attacking the security forces in order to maintain stability.
Iran will avoid a direct war with its enemies by continuing to wage a proxy war against Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States through its proxy groups throughout the region and converting the results of this struggle into further expansion of its influence in the region built on the use of the Shiite corridor Tehran-Beirut and Axes of Resistance.
10. During the G20 summit, a kind of de-escalation between the US and China was demonstrated. Should such gestures be taken seriously, and is China ready to "surrender" its relations with Russia for the sake of reducing tensions between Beijing and Washington?
There is no real de-escalation between the US and China. The parties are moving confidently along the path of further escalation, with the US acting as the engine of this escalation, forcing the crisis over Taiwan in order to provoke it before China is fully prepared to take control of the island. It is beneficial for China to delay the onset of the crisis. On the contrary, it is beneficial for the United States to accelerate it, hence the provocations with trips to Taiwan, the hasty strengthening of Taiwan's military potential and the forging of an anti-Chinese coalition of US satellites in the Far East. For China, the choice of exchanging relations with Russia for a "truce" with the United States is no longer worth it. China is well aware that it is heading for a clash with the hegemon and its satellites and is preparing for it. Russia for China in this party is a valuable ally/fellow traveler on the way to a future multipolar world order,
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/71097 - zinc
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Posted by badanov 2022-11-24 00:00||
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