Article

2021-10-29 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

MOSCOW, October 29 - RIA Novosti, Andrey Kots. The situation in the north of Syria in the coming days may become seriously tense. Turkey has deployed to hundreds of military border. More than 200 trucks delivered ammunition, weapons and special equipment to Idlib province. RIA Novosti reports on the risks of another exacerbation.

General offensive
Turkey plans to advance on a wide front to close two-thirds of the 910-kilometer border. Judging by the photos on social networks, Ankara does not waste time on trifles: tanks, artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, and air defense systems are being transferred to Syria. The last time the region was pumped up with troops and equipment in this way was in the winter of 2020 - before Operation Spring Shield.

First of all, analysts say, Ankara wants to neutralize the threat from the Kurds who have settled in northern Syria. In 2016-2019, the Turks captured several areas there and today control the border from Bandar Khan to Ras al-Ein, as well as from Jerabulus to the Mediterranean coast.

However, the territory between Jerabulus and Bandar Khan has been in the hands of the Kurdish YPG for many years. One of the main targets of the upcoming operation is the border town of Kobani, 415 kilometers northeast of Damascus. The Kurds have been defending it since 2012: first from IS *, and then from the Turkish army.

According to Bloomberg, Ankara is going to take over the area south of Kobani in order to link the two regions under its control and to further gain a foothold in northern Syria. The formal reason for the military operation is the attacks of the Kurds on the Turkish security forces.

"The latest attack on our policemen and sorties aimed at our lands have already exhausted the cup of patience," Erdogan said.

Old question
The second, less obvious goal of Ankara is to cover its proxies in Idlib from a possible Damascus strike. It is no secret that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in recent months has been building up a group that is trying to liberate the troubled province. A kind of layered cake was formed from the Turkish military, extremist groups controlled by Ankara, free gangs fighting against everyone, and units of the government army, operating with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Syrian troops launched a major offensive in the winter and spring of 2020, liberating 35 settlements, 320 square kilometers of territory.

By the end of January, the CAA occupied the city of Maarrat-en-Nuuman in the southeast of the province, taking control of the most important section of the Hama-Aleppo road. And on February 5, she entered the key settlement of Serakib at the intersection of the Aleppo-Hama and Aleppo-Latakia highways.

This provoked the discontent of Ankara, which demanded an ultimatum from Damascus to withdraw its troops to the positions they had occupied before. Syria has not responded. Therefore, the Turks and their proxies attacked the SAA along the entire front. In response, on February 27, the Syrians bombed a Turkish convoy - 33 soldiers and officers were killed. After that, Ankara launched Operation Spring Shield, widely using Bayraktar TB2 attack drones.

The CAA retreated. The situation was partially stabilized on March 5, after the talks between the presidents of Russia and Turkey in Moscow on an armistice. Putin and Erdogan agreed to end hostilities, withdraw troops and create a security corridor along the M-4 Latakia-Aleppo highway. Also, joint patrols were organized in this area.

Old question
Russia has its own interests in the region, which do not always coincide with Turkey's. Recently, the media published photos of a Su-35S fighter at the Kamyshly airbase in northern Syria, which was not used by Russian aviation before. In the West, this was regarded as a warning to Turkey. However, it is not yet clear how far Ankara will go.

The Turkish parliament last Tuesday extended the permission to use the army in Iraq and Syria until October 2023. This was supported by deputies from the ruling Justice and Development Party, as well as the National Movement Party, and the opposition Republican People's Party and the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party opposed it. Obviously, Erdogan is betting on political allies and hopes to raise his ratings through a "small victorious war."

However, a Turkish offensive could run counter to American interests. Those have long and consistently supported the Syrian Kurds, and consider them allies. Probably, Ankara decided to exacerbate the situation in order to get additional trump cards in the negotiations between Erdogan and Biden, which are to be held in Glasgow within the framework of the UN conference on climate change from November 1 to 12.

It is not the first time for the Turkish leader to use military force to achieve political preferences. We will remind, Ankara has already deployed powerful military contingents to the Syrian borders in September, a week before Erdogan's meeting with Putin.

Posted by badanov 2021-10-29 22:59|| || Front Page|| [13 views ] Top

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