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2021-04-06 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
A Russian assessment of combat capabilities in southeastern Ukraine
Original in Russian

From Russian reserve FSB Colonel Igor Girkin's V Kontakte page:


Armed Forces of Ukraine

Donbass Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrated more than 90,000 bayonets,

The Ukrainians field 450 tanks, about 2500 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles,

Five firing installations of the Tochka-U TRK, 230 MLRS, about 1050 units of cannon artillery and mortars, about 3500 anti-tank recoilless systems (SPG-9).

All these forces are consolidated into 10 brigades and at least three (or more) separate battalions, the so-called volunteers (i.e. nationalists) subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, which will most likely be used as detachments and to clear the occupied territories.

If necessary, the Armed Forces can use its reserve - about four well-equipped and equipped brigades, now located in the west of the country. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have practically no navy, the Air Force is in a state of deep stagnation, rising slightly above the collapse. Therefore, Kiev can rely only on its ground forces and NATO assistance.

Armed forces of Russian speaking separatists

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 1st and 2nd army corps of the Donbass militia are deployed in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, consisting of 14 combat brigades, regiments and support units numbering about 28,000 bayonets

The Russian speaking separatists field 650 tanks up to 800 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers

They also field 150 MLRS, more than 1000 units of barrel artillery, mortars, more than 700 ATGMs) which operate with the support of Russian regular troops, in command positions of which are regular officers of the armed forces of the Russian Federation.

Speaking in the Verkhovna Rada, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak said that there is an apparatus of military advisers and instructors of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with a total number of more than 2,000 to train specialists for intelligence special police units of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has concentrated 28 battalion tactical groups located near the borders with Ukraine, located in the territories of the Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov regions and in the Crimea. "An additional concentration of up to 25 battalion tactical groups is expected, which, together with the existing deployed forces and assets near the state border of Ukraine, creates threats to the military security of the state," Khomchak also told Ukrainian deputies.

It turns out that against the 90,000 grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian command can immediately throw into battle more than 120 thousand bayonets, more than 400 tanks, about 7,600 infantry fighting vehicles / armored personnel carriers.

Crimea

The Crimean group alone has about 32 thousand personnel;

The Russians have 24 warships and submarines with 168 KR "Caliber-NK / PL"

Also: 34-35 strike aircraft (9 Su-24M bombers, 13 Su-25SM attack aircraft and 1 Su-25UB combat training aircraft, 12 Su- 30SM), 24-33 fighters (13 modernized Su-27SM, 2 Su-27 and 9 Su-27P, 1 combat training Su-27UP, 2 Su-27UB, 6 Su-30M2), as well as 12 reconnaissance aircraft Su-24MR

32 new attack helicopters (12 Mi-35M, 4 Mi-28N, 16 Ka-52)

Missiles: 12 SPU BPRK "Bastion-P" (24 anti-ship missiles "Onyx"), 8 - "Ball" (64 anti-ship missiles X-35U) and 6 JV "Bereg";

Armored ground vehicles: 41 T-72B3 tank, 190 BMP (80 BMP-2, 40 BTR-82A, 40 BTR-80, 28 MT-LBT and 2 BRM-1K), 106 artillery systems

But here it is not even a matter of the number of troops. In terms of firepower, technically and qualitatively, the Russian Armed Forces are at a higher level than the Ukrainian ones. The first is the army of the twenty-first century with a full range of weapons, including electronic warfare systems, hypersonic missiles and the Kalibr missile launcher. The latter, in fact, and in terms of their structural state, are more likely only at the beginning of the twentieth century, without aviation and navy, but with tanks, electronic equipment and artillery from the middle of the last century.

First of all, the 4th Air Army and the Black Sea Fleet and the CFL will act against the Armed Forces of Ukraine with all their might. After the fire effect of this force, perhaps the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces will not even need to bring ground forces into battle, since they will have no one to fight with. "

Neither the 4th Air Army nor any of the military districts have been mobilized. Mobilization for war is a basic component of Russia's military readiness. While it is hard to exactly assess it, if none of the military districts are mobilized, positioning of tactical groups notwithstanding, there is no war.

Russia's defense scheme relies heavily on transforming military districts into the front combat formation commands. When army operations began in Chechnya in 1999 (2nd Chechen War), Russia formed a mobilized front command, but in the Russian general staff in Moscow, not in the Transcaucusus. That command basic component was the Russian 58th Army, the same base formation that supplied some of the troops for the 2008 war in South Ossetia.

We have no other recent example of Russia mobilizing for war -- not since WWII -- so my personal guess is that it would be social chaos, noticeable by the average casual Russian watcher.

More:

More units transported by rail to Voronezh from Kemerovo Oblast in central Russia, include the Russian 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 120th Artillery Brigade, due to arrived April 11th. The units departed March 30th.
Posted by badanov 2021-04-06 00:00|| || Front Page|| [7 views ]  Top

#1 Donbass Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrated more than 90,000 bayonets,

Eh?
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2021-04-06 02:56||   2021-04-06 02:56|| Front Page Top

#2 Grom; Probably a machine translation error, "issued" or "procured" are probably what the original (Russian) text meant.
Posted by Nomad 2021-04-06 06:14||   2021-04-06 06:14|| Front Page Top

#3 IMO, somebody uses bayonets as a synonym for soldiers.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2021-04-06 06:23||   2021-04-06 06:23|| Front Page Top

#4 Translation was bayonets.
Posted by badanov 2021-04-06 08:03||   2021-04-06 08:03|| Front Page Top

#5 I posted this at Instapundit.
Posted by trailing wife 2021-04-06 08:11||   2021-04-06 08:11|| Front Page Top

#6 OK, I've looked at the Russian language original.

Донбасса ВСУ сосредоточили более 90 тыс. штыков, порядка 450 танков, около 2500 БТР и БМП, пять огневых установок ТРК «Точка-У», 230 РСЗО, примерно 1050 единиц ствольной артиллерии и минометов, около 3500 противотанковых безоткатных комплексов.

Which translates as 95,000 bayonets (IMO personnel or infantry: archaic), 450 tanks, etc...
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2021-04-06 08:28||   2021-04-06 08:28|| Front Page Top

#7 штыков (shtikov) - I took that as slang for soldiers.
Posted by Unising Lumumba8103 2021-04-06 08:33||   2021-04-06 08:33|| Front Page Top

#8 Russians prolly wanted to distinguish individuals who hump guns and rucks from the support system.
Posted by badanov 2021-04-06 08:35||   2021-04-06 08:35|| Front Page Top

#9 ^As I said, archaic.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2021-04-06 08:36||   2021-04-06 08:36|| Front Page Top

#10 Not nearly as modern as Trans-Volleyball Teams.
Posted by swksvolFF 2021-04-06 11:45||   2021-04-06 11:45|| Front Page Top

#11 
We have no other recent example of Russia mobilizing for war -- not since WWII

...like the invasion of Czechoslovakia '68? They executed under bad weather to obscure satellite imaging.
Posted by Procopius2k 2021-04-06 11:56||   2021-04-06 11:56|| Front Page Top

#12 Russia begins 'combat readiness' inspection of its army as Ukraine says it wants to urgently join NATO amid 'serious concerns about Putin's activities' and military build-up
Posted by Skidmark 2021-04-06 13:46||   2021-04-06 13:46|| Front Page Top

#13  Ukraine says it wants to urgently join NATO
Sorry. All full.

Frankly, too many members for its own good... time to downsize the club.

Better for you to sit down and work something out with your brother-slavs. Let us know how we can help. Best, U. Sam
Posted by Spaing Bluetooth8549 2021-04-06 17:59||   2021-04-06 17:59|| Front Page Top

11:49 Elmerert Hupens2660
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