Article

2020-07-14 China-Japan-Koreas

Stumbling Tiger: Has China’s Rise Peaked?

[Real Clear Defense] Facts to consider: China's population is aging at a rate and scale that is historically unprecedented. That nation is expected to lose 400 million working age persons this century, and the number is already falling. There is an 18 percent gender imbalance in the country's population. China's birth rate never recovered from its multi-decade "one child" policy.

China's rise as a global economic power, and regional military power, is one of the fastest in history. China has grown faster than America for four straight decades. It has built the industrial and technological foundations for a rapid expansion of its military, to include world-class capabilities in space launch, and its own version of GPS. China's mercantilist economics have taken over entire sectors of other economies, including those of the United States. All this has occurred  not just with U.S. acquiescence, but intentional facilitation. America first wanted China as a counterweight to Soviet Russia, and then aggressively helped China to get rich, with the expectation that self-government and democracy would follow in the Middle Kingdom.

But the times may be-a-changin’. China's population is aging at a rate and scale that is historically unprecedented.

I may have mentioned something about this from time to time... ;-)

That nation is expected to lose 400 million working age persons this century, and the number is already falling. There is an 18 percent gender imbalance in the country's population. China's birth rate never recovered from its multi-decade "one child" policy. India will likely pass China as the world's most populous country this decade. China has just backed off publishing its economic growth goal for the first time in decades.

China is bullying South Korean and Japanese companies. Samsung and Sony are scaling back their operations in the People's Republic. Apple is a laggard, but is planning to move 20 percent of its Chinese supply-chain presence to India. India banned fifty-nine Chinese mobile apps after the above-mentioned border clash. Huawei has found itself on the Trump administration's blacklist, and its loss of Google on its smartphones has badly damaged sales outside China. The UK has announced plans for Huawei's complete removal from British telecom infrastructure by 2023.

China's export markets are flat on their backs, and furious at China about the coronavirus. Europe is 16 percent of China's exports, and is an economic and financial wreck. America is 19 percent, the Trump attitude towards China is no secret, and those views are gaining steam with both parties on Capitol Hill. Chinese exports to America are falling rapidly, down 17 percent from the summer 2018 to January 2020. This will be dramatically accelerated by coronavirus. No one thought this economic decoupling could happen so fast. Chinese global direct foreign investment is also down from $260 billion in 2017 to $125 billion in 2019. Why would China be easing up now on its Belt and Road Initiative?

On the military side, China's geographic circumstances can only be described as bottled up and vulnerable. China is almost surrounded by countries that are unfriendly. It only has one ally, North Korea, which is more of a client state. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, and India are all on the spectrum from cool to hostile towards China. Most are allies or friendly with the United States. Many are armed with American high-tech weapons.

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-07-14 00:00|| || Front Page|| [12 views ] Top
File under: Commies

#1 Their decline will be as dangerous a process as their rise.

Gotta distract the populace somehow.

Posted by charger 2020-07-14 00:33|| 2020-07-14 00:33|| Front Page Top

#2 The old trick of distracting the populace by blaming outsiders for their economic problems is starting to loose its effectiveness. There are too many unlicensed copy machines and burner phones floating around these days.

Posted by Thaith Elmeresing6163 2020-07-14 01:39|| 2020-07-14 01:39|| Front Page Top

#3 I wish I had 4 NIS (1$) for every article of the type "This is the end of China" I've seen in the last 10 years.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-07-14 05:40|| 2020-07-14 05:40|| Front Page Top

#4 China is a manufacturing based economy. They will do better during this pandemic than the West's service based economy. As long as we continue to purchase massive quantities from China, they will outpace us.

Posted by Sonny Speaking for Boskone6699 2020-07-14 05:44|| 2020-07-14 05:44|| Front Page Top

#5 It wasn't the end of Japan either, but they never got where they were predicted.

Japan had far less rent-seeking than China, i predict greater problems than just unproductive debt for China.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-07-14 06:47|| 2020-07-14 06:47|| Front Page Top

#6 Ref #4: As long as we continue to purchase massive quantities from China, they will outpace us.

Their evil microbiology research has been flushed down the memory hole. No further investigation or penalties appear forthcoming. Yes, I'd say they are good to go. Splendid news of course for Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and others. Cash really is king.

Posted by Besoeker 2020-07-14 07:31|| 2020-07-14 07:31|| Front Page Top

#7 Their evil microbiology research has been flushed down the memory hole.

Just until the next time.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-07-14 07:42|| 2020-07-14 07:42|| Front Page Top

#8 More inclined to go with comment #1: wounded predators are extremely dangerous and unpredictable.

Posted by Mercutio 2020-07-14 07:58|| 2020-07-14 07:58|| Front Page Top

#9 Yes, the problem China has is they can't simply print yuan to get themselves out of trouble. As bad as what the Federal Reserve is doing to the Dollar, it's at least got world reserve currency status going for it at the moment. The yuan has no such attribute. The Chinese may be able to trade their way out of debt, but the US will certainly have to pay its way out of debt. Neither case is anywhere near a likelihood.

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-07-14 08:17|| 2020-07-14 08:17|| Front Page Top

#10 Good reason to go "contrarian" on China. And as the US self-destructs and commits economic suicide, China will step in and fill the void.

Posted by Clem 2020-07-14 09:12|| 2020-07-14 09:12|| Front Page Top

#11 The only country that i see to self destruct is the world center of Marxism: USA

Fascist China have no self hate.

China builds stuff, while US is in entropy, narcissist virtue signaling, dismal education.

Posted by Thorong Grundy1520 2020-07-14 12:33|| 2020-07-14 12:33|| Front Page Top

#12 China builds stuff but a lot of the stuff it builds is crap. They have a name for it " Tofu Manufacturing ". A tyupical example is the "Three Gorges Damn " . It was essentially a CCP idea and was opposed by everyone down stream to the Damn. Less than a year from construction they were having to patch it. The sell a lot of stuff internally that is counterfit, sound alike , and/or knock offs. You buy any of it and hope the it build when someone was having a good day. Now with the population decrease and the military age males about FAPPed out, if they take on Taiwan thing could go real pears shaped.

Posted by Thaith Elmeresing6163 2020-07-14 19:52|| 2020-07-14 19:52|| Front Page Top

#13 Yes, the problem China has is they can't simply print yuan to get themselves out of trouble.

They can. All countries do this. The trade-off is inflation. Ever notice how gold is not $25 an ounce any more? That's in part increased scarcity (and thus extraction costs) and in part the result of printing money. Gold's price increase in % terms has been far smaller when measured in other currencies. Printing money carries a very measurable price. It buys less when compared to countries that don't print as much. But all countries print money. It's a cure-all for recessions, at the expense of people who put their money in savings accounts and bonds.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2020-07-14 20:12|| 2020-07-14 20:12|| Front Page Top

#14 Precisly Zhang Fei

Note that i think the price of gold also reflects a cultural change.

Posted by Thorong Grundy1520 2020-07-14 23:20|| 2020-07-14 23:20|| Front Page Top

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