Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Tue 04/23/2024 View Mon 04/22/2024 View Sun 04/21/2024 View Sat 04/20/2024 View Fri 04/19/2024 View Thu 04/18/2024 View Wed 04/17/2024
2020-05-24 Caribbean-Latin America
Will It Be War? Venezuela Escorts Iranian Tankers in 'American Lake.' U.S. Considers a Strike
[PJ] The Venezuelan Navy is escorting 5 Iranian tankers filled with gasoline that are now nearing the Venezuelan coast, leaving the United States with few options to stop them.

Both Iran and Venezuela are under economic sanctions by the U.S. and the trade in oil is seen as illegal in Washington. The U.S. Navy has ships in the Caribbean that could interdict the Iranian tankers before they make port. Sources in Washington have sought to downplay the military option.

Down to the bottom line:

If Admiral Miller is right and there are Revolutionary Guard forces on the ships, it would make intercepting the vessels not only legal but necessary. With the civil war in Syria winding down, Iran can afford to project its power by sending forces that would be loyal to Nicolas Maduro. Given the Guard’s behavior in Syria toward civilians and reluctant Syrian troops, it would be a brutal deployment.

Realistically, a confrontation on the high seas with Iran or Venezuela would no doubt result in a U.S. military victory. But it would complicate our efforts to force Maduro out of office by using international pressure. Our allies would scatter if we were seen as heavy-handed enforcement of the sanctions.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-24 03:08|| || Front Page|| [7 views ]  Top
 File under: Govt of Iran 

#1 Let them offload their cargo. Provide no warning, jam their communications and destroy the lot in heavy seas on their way home. Say nothing more to the press or anyone.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-24 03:13||   2020-05-24 03:13|| Front Page Top

#2 The IRGC are already there with Maduro. If they are on ship, looks like a shift change.

I think the Gold was already sent for this. You Could sieze it right now legally - IF your intel is correct, or let them get more brazen and find a real reason to.
Posted by newc 2020-05-24 03:32||   2020-05-24 03:32|| Front Page Top

#3 Is "filled with gasoline" an established fact, an assumption or a diplomatic pretense?

Given the Iranians' and Venezuelans' rhetoric and behavior one could suspect that something of much higher importance is being shipped.

Plainly:
Is there nuclear weapons related material on board that the Iranians want to keep safe from an Israeli strike and that the Venezuelans want to use to project power in South America?
Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2020-05-24 06:33||   2020-05-24 06:33|| Front Page Top

#4 Time to crank up the Halliburton Hurricane Division.
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-05-24 07:26||   2020-05-24 07:26|| Front Page Top

#5 An interesting hypothesis from Elmerert Hupens at #3.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-24 07:46||   2020-05-24 07:46|| Front Page Top

#6 First of five Iranian tanker crosses into Venezuela's economic zone to bring South American country gasoline as US decides NOT to intercept vessel
Posted by Skidmark 2020-05-24 08:27||   2020-05-24 08:27|| Front Page Top

#7 Ignore them. but let it be known that if the tankers show up in any other port that nation will be considered for severe economic sanctions as well.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-24 10:37||   2020-05-24 10:37|| Front Page Top

#8 I agree, ignore them.

I just can't get too excited about Venezuela.
Posted by Clem 2020-05-24 10:45||   2020-05-24 10:45|| Front Page Top

#9 A few limpet mines would take care of this issue. Or a few torps from a sub that isn't there.
Posted by Silentbrick 2020-05-24 11:58||   2020-05-24 11:58|| Front Page Top

#10 We could send in an icebreaker cruise ship, the one weakness of the Venezuelan navy.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-24 13:01||   2020-05-24 13:01|| Front Page Top

#11 We have no dog in this fight. The gold will run out and the gasoline will follow.

The Ayatollahs are squeezed as if by a python. A few tankers of gas don't mean much when they need to export 3M barrels/day at @100/bbl just to limp the economy along.
Posted by Phugum Spump3764 2020-05-24 15:33||   2020-05-24 15:33|| Front Page Top

#12 it would be a shame if there were an accident at the Gasoline handling terminal
Posted by lord garth 2020-05-24 16:21||   2020-05-24 16:21|| Front Page Top

21:19 Rambler in Virginia
20:28 Raj
19:40 swksvolFF
19:37 swksvolFF
19:31 swksvolFF
18:37 Old+Patriot
18:27 Frank G
18:02 Airandee
17:47 Besoeker
17:41 Skidmark
17:35 Dale
16:35 Grom the Reflective
16:33 Grom the Reflective
16:27 Grom the Reflective
16:24 Glenmore
16:00 Angealing+B.+Hayes4677
15:37 Whiskey Mike
15:37 Skidmark
15:33 Skidmark
15:14 DarthVader
14:55 magpie
14:49 M. Murcek
14:37 NoMoreBS
14:24 Grom the Reflective









Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com