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2020-05-10 Science & Technology
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Herd Immunity, or Big 2nd Wave? Israel Antibody Testing Hopes to Find Out
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[NYT] - Israel, whose aggressive response to the coronavirus has held its fatality rate to a fraction of those of the United States and other hard-hit nations, is readying a nationwide serological test of 100,000 citizens to see how widely the virus has spread across its population and how vulnerable it may be to a new wave of the contagion.
The survey, to be conducted at clinics run by Israeli H.M.O.s beginning in a week or two, is one of the largest efforts yet to determine the prevalence of antibodies to Covid-19. Germany has also announced antibody testing using a representative nationwide sample.
The results could aid in deciding how quickly businesses and schools should be allowed to return to normal operations. On Monday, Israel announced that citizens could leave their homes after a 40-day lockdown, but many aspects of economic and social life remain curtailed.
Even more important, officials said, the survey’s findings could spur preparations for any strong resurgence of the virus, perhaps when hospitals and health clinics are also busy with seasonal influenza.
...Officials say they hope the survey will identify the portion of the healthy population that has not yet been exposed to the virus, and the portion that has already been exposed but has developed antibodies to it. The answers could have enormous implications for a country’s capacity to withstand a new wave of the virus.
...The World Health Organization has cautioned that no evidence exists that people who have recovered from Covid-19 or have antibodies to it are protected from another infection.
But Dr. Yair Schindel, a member of a health ministry task force on the virus who pushed for a large survey, said the Israeli study could produce such evidence. "Part of what we’re trying to achieve here is to answer the questions the W.H.O. is raising," he said.
Dr. Schindel sketched out two scenarios for Israel.
In the rosier one, the survey would show that 10 percent of Israelis have antibodies to Covid-19. If so, and if a future wave of the virus resulted in the same proportions of Israelis becoming critically ill or dying as have occurred so far, that would mean about 2,300 people would need intensive care, Dr. Schindel said. That would be well within the capacity of the country’s health system.
But in a bleaker scenario, the survey would reveal that only 1 percent of Israelis have antibodies, in which case the number of people needing intensive-care beds in a future wave could exceed 12,000 — well beyond Israel’s capacity, he said.
Current capacity
Israel spent nearly $40 million to obtain 2.4 million antibody tests from two suppliers that have received Emergency Use Authorization from the Food and Drug Administration: Abbott Laboratories in the United States, and DiaSorin in Italy.
Less than the cost of one warplane.
...Asking so many citizens to submit to something as invasive as a blood test could seem a tall order in a country where a digital-surveillance initiative to identify coronavirus patients using smartphone location data set off political protests and lawsuits. Many Israelis, citing privacy concerns, also declined to download a government-sponsored app that was designed to help them avoid fellow citizens who had tested positive.
But Mr. Bar-Siman-Tov said he did not expect the survey to be a tough sell because participants will be told the results. "I think the people would like to know," he said. "I mean, I think about myself, and I would like to know." He added, "I think that we’ll have more demand than supply."
Of course, Israel has a huge advantage other other countries. Israelis see CV19 as just another crisis to be solved - not an opportunity to attack political opponents. 
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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-10 03:14||
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Posted by Clem 2020-05-10 08:50||
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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-10 09:40||
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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-10 09:49||
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Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-10 10:44||
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Posted by charger 2020-05-10 15:06||
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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-10 15:09||
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