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2020-01-11 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iran plane crash: Ukrainian jet was 'unintentionally' shot down - state TV
[BBC] Iran's military says it "unintentionally" shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, Iran's state TV reports.
Toldja so.
The statement said it had done so due to "human error" after the plane flew close to a sensitive site belonging to Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
"What sensitive site?"
"Tehran International."
Those responsible would be held accountable, the statement said.
"They've been reassigned to traffic duty."
Iran had previously rejected suggestions that one of its missiles brought down the plane near the capital, Tehran, on Wednesday.
"No, no! Certainly not!"
But pressure mounted after the US and Canada, citing intelligence, said they believed Iran had brought the plane down with a missile, possibly accidently.
Very nice of us to leave them a hand to cover their asses. The real reason was excitability and ineptitude.
The crash of Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 with the loss of 176 lives came just hours after Iran carried out missile strikes on two airbases housing US forces in Iraq.
Just to recap:

Military units file after-action reports. They count expended weaponry. There is no way on earth that the IRGC did not know what brought the plane down. Period. I suppose there's a remote possibility that the local air defense command didn't tell the higher ups, but there's sure as hell no way nobody asked.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-01-11 00:00|| || Front Page|| [12 views ]  Top
 File under: Govt of Iran 

#1 Well fuck junior...

Loss of face for lack of loss of international support.

Who knows they could indead adapt?
Posted by DarthVader 2020-01-11 00:25||   2020-01-11 00:25|| Front Page Top

#2 Hypothesis:

This was intentional.

They expected a massive retaliatory air raid.

The downing was to be blamed on a US air-to-air missile, recreating the IA655 incident which Rouhani explicitly mentioned.

A Ukrainian plane was targeted as a strategic favor to Russia, to drive a wedge between the US and Ukraine.

The Trump administration had caught wind of such plans being considered and thus refrained from any immediate use of armed force, in spite of Trump's massive threats.
Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2020-01-11 00:59||   2020-01-11 00:59|| Front Page Top

#3 Ref #2: This was intentional. They expected a massive retaliatory air raid.

Entirely plausible. Thank you Elmerert.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-01-11 01:02||   2020-01-11 01:02|| Front Page Top

#4 Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Posted by Crusader 2020-01-11 01:08||   2020-01-11 01:08|| Front Page Top

#5 RE #2
Plausible. No doubt they were expecting big-time retaliation. But easier to believe some low-level air defense team freaked out and screwed the pooch.
Posted by SteveS 2020-01-11 01:12||   2020-01-11 01:12|| Front Page Top

#6 Stupid vs calculated...? 'Neck and neck' at this point. But stupid appears to be pulling away from the pack.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-01-11 01:17||   2020-01-11 01:17|| Front Page Top

#7 'and'
Posted by Lex 2020-01-11 02:31||   2020-01-11 02:31|| Front Page Top

#8 Had there been ANY US military action in Iranian airspace at the time there's no way the Trump administration could have escaped conviction in a MSM led court of public opinion, no matter the facts.

Given that the Democrats are blaming Trump for the shootdown even now, it is likely that they would have passed additional articles of impeachment.
Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2020-01-11 03:06||   2020-01-11 03:06|| Front Page Top

#9 I don't see a reason to invoke Machiavellian planning when simple stupidity & incompetence will suffice.
Something as elaborate as you suggest, Elmerert, would've been better achieved by placing a bomb on the plane.
IMO, they expected retaliatory USA raid. So they activated they air defenses. And one team - they are not experienced or well trained - screwed up.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-01-11 03:34||   2020-01-11 03:34|| Front Page Top

#10 You know who else would have made the Iranians shoot down a civilian plane by cleverly refraining from shooting exculpatorily retaliatory missiles?

Hitler!
Posted by Frank G 2020-01-11 05:38||   2020-01-11 05:38|| Front Page Top

#11 Realizing yesterday's sanctions making things impossible on an already ruined economy?

Hardliners standing down, softliners stepping in?
Posted by Varmint Splat1454 2020-01-11 07:00||   2020-01-11 07:00|| Front Page Top

#12 The Iranians start their #hardrevenge counter strike at a time of their choosing.

The counter strike itself is totally ineffective. There are no casualties.

Simultaneously Iranian air defense shoots down a civilian plane after a scheduled takeoff from an Iranian airport killing all aboard.

The Trump administration abstains from retaliation albeit having threatened massive retaliation before, thereby narrowly avoiding a massive political setback.

All of this can be attributed to extreme incompetence on the Iranian side. But this surely is a strange set of events.
Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2020-01-11 07:17||   2020-01-11 07:17|| Front Page Top

#13 #9 I agree, the shortest line seems most reliable. It also seems revelatory in that A) they are plainly scared pea green of us and B) having chased the competent people out of the country they can't delegate even simple tasks.

We got into their capital city and left their BBMFIC a smoking pile of rubble before they had any concept of what was going on, what led them to believe they could 'see' an aerial attack
Posted by Cesare 2020-01-11 08:30||   2020-01-11 08:30|| Front Page Top

#14 The two big takeaways from our strike are that

1) OrangeMan has no compunction about lopping off the head of the snake, and

2) the upper ranks of the Iranian security services are totally penetrated with our and Israel's spies.

Together, these have the mullahs dazed, confused, and shi'iting their trousers.
Posted by Lex 2020-01-11 09:41||   2020-01-11 09:41|| Front Page Top

#15 Not closing Iranian airspace for civilian aircraft was a calculated reckless move. It was probably decided in order to deter an American attack and if if America had attacked anyway Iran might very well have shot down the plane intentionally.

Don't be fooled. The mullahs are criminals.
Posted by European Conservative 2020-01-11 09:59||   2020-01-11 09:59|| Front Page Top

#16 Ref #15: decided to..... deter an American attack.

Interesting assessment EC. One we'd not see here yet, as I recall.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-01-11 10:15||   2020-01-11 10:15|| Front Page Top

#17 Brilliant.

Donald has imposed sanctions. Let's shoot down an International airline and add new self-imposed sanctions.

It's not 3-dimensional chess. It's 3-dimensional mess. Will they ever stop digging?
Posted by Beau 2020-01-11 10:15||   2020-01-11 10:15|| Front Page Top

#18 @ #2 - Superb post. Thanks to Besoeker as well.
Posted by Clem 2020-01-11 10:18||   2020-01-11 10:18|| Front Page Top

#19 I like the theory that the goal was to stage a shoot-down and blame the US. The call-back to Iran Air 655 ahead of time is a tell.

And I'd add in that John Kerry was involved in planning the whole thing.
Posted by Rob Crawford 2020-01-11 10:18||   2020-01-11 10:18|| Front Page Top

#20 Upon reflection, now would actually be a more less perfect time for a B52 visit. No one is going to defend them.
Posted by Beau 2020-01-11 10:19||   2020-01-11 10:19|| Front Page Top

#21 Of course the first Iranian nuke exploding over Tel Aviv will be attributed to "human error".
Posted by European Conservative 2020-01-11 10:30||   2020-01-11 10:30|| Front Page Top

#22 ^Not in their lives - literally!
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-01-11 11:20||   2020-01-11 11:20|| Front Page Top

#23 "Don't press that button, Mahmoud! You are locked onto a civilian airliner."
"I can't stop it, Commander! The Orange Shaitan is using his evil mind tricks! I am helpless."
(whoosh)
"(sighs) Imam Kerry told us this might happen."
Posted by Matt 2020-01-11 12:19||   2020-01-11 12:19|| Front Page Top

#24 45th iteration: If you aim at it and hit it, it's not accidental and by definition, it's not "unintentional".
Posted by Mercutio 2020-01-11 12:24||   2020-01-11 12:24|| Front Page Top

#25 Its also telling that even when it is clear that there was no US military operation in Iranian airspace Trump is explicitly being blamed by a centrist mainstream Democrat.

The Mullahs could have realistically hoped for new articles of impeachment and the Trump administration being deterred from making any move against Iran.
Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2020-01-11 12:59||   2020-01-11 12:59|| Front Page Top

#26 #22 g(r)omgoru
Yes I don't think they will have the time to deny or admit it.
Posted by European Conservative 2020-01-11 13:13||   2020-01-11 13:13|| Front Page Top

#27 "Accidental," "unintentional" = the Ultimate Shitshow
Posted by Lex 2020-01-11 13:15||   2020-01-11 13:15|| Front Page Top

#28 #26 No. I mean: They will be extinct before they've a chance to try.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-01-11 13:16||   2020-01-11 13:16|| Front Page Top

#29 "unintentionally"

That's kids playing with a gun, "I didn't know it was loaded". Not someone aiming a missile system intentionally and pushing a button or pulling a trigger.
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-01-11 13:32||   2020-01-11 13:32|| Front Page Top

#30 This is turning into one of those "it depends on what the meaning of 'is' is" discussions.

What I find fascinating is that the Iranians copped to the deed so quick. I suspect this was due to some video footage and the possibility that radar and sat images of the SAM launches would be released.
Posted by SteveS 2020-01-11 13:53||   2020-01-11 13:53|| Front Page Top

#31 Collapsing like a house o' cards.

Truly shitty, small- or medium-sized tinpot dictatorships are always much weaker than they appear.

All it takes is someone willing to lop off a few senior-level heads and halt the flow of cash into the mullahs' pockets.
Posted by Lex 2020-01-11 13:57||   2020-01-11 13:57|| Front Page Top

#32 US Special Forces were 1/2 mile behind Qasem Soleimani following him from Baghdad airport. After the Reaper strike, they rolled up on the carnage, Soleimani was beside the vehicle on fire, they put out the fire of the body, took confirming tissue samples and pictures.
Posted by Goober Tingle7365 2020-01-11 14:43||   2020-01-11 14:43|| Front Page Top

#33 What I find fascinating is that the Iranians copped to the deed so quick.

They had to because the plane was obviously downed by an anti aircraft weapon and the only military operation at the time and place was conducted by the Iranians.

Had there been any military response by the US Trump would've been blamed.
Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2020-01-11 15:33||   2020-01-11 15:33|| Front Page Top

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