Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Fri 03/29/2024 View Thu 03/28/2024 View Wed 03/27/2024 View Tue 03/26/2024 View Mon 03/25/2024 View Sun 03/24/2024 View Sat 03/23/2024
2019-09-09 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
From Taliban to ‘Deal of Century,' why is America addicted to 'deals'?
[Jpost] US President Donald Trump said he canceled a deal in the wake of a Taliban attack in Kabul that killed a US soldier. Meanwhile, Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s special envoy for Middle East peace, is also leaving before the "Deal of the Century" is completed. The US is also ostensibly seeking a new Iran deal, and US-North Korea talks are stalled. Why is the US so addicted to the notion that so many of the world’s problems can be solved with "deals" ‐ especially given the track record of previous failed efforts?

Trump adds a personal dealmaking culture to US foreign policy, borrowed from his business background and a 1987 book that sang the praises of the "art of the deal." But his approach to deals is not unique. The US notion that conflicts can be solved with agreements ‐ and deals that wrap them up with a nice start and end date ‐ is part of historic Western European concepts of diplomacy.

Deals and treaties such as those at Westphalia or the Congress of Berlin sought to create order after conflicts in Europe. These ostensibly successful treaties or conferences are pointed to as examples of how diplomacy and international law can be successful. The US played a key role in ending the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 with a treaty signed at Portsmouth, for which Teddy Roosevelt won a Nobel Peace Prize.

But this approach to international affairs has its limits. In 1928 US Secretary of State Frank B. Kellogg and France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Aristide Briand negotiated the Kellogg-Briand Pact signed by 15 countries, which was supposed to end war as a way to resolve disputes. In a sense, it outlawed war. Oddly, Germany, Japan and Italy all signed on. Within a decade those states would all be at war, with Italy invading Ethiopia and Japan increasing involvement in China.

The failures of 1928 haven’t ended the seduction of treaties, conferences, pacts and deals to end conflict. The Paris Peace Accords in 1973 ended the war in Vietnam, just two years before North Vietnamese troops took over Saigon, which actually ended the war. In Israel and the Palestinian territories, the Oslo Accords were never fulfilled. UN resolutions that were supposed to stop Hezbollah maintaining a massive arsenal were never adhered to. Evidence seems to indicate that the last hundred years have seen a decline in adherence to treaties and deals, yet the US still believes it can get to the end zone in dealing with a variety of files.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-09-09 03:04|| || Front Page|| [1 views ]  Top

#1 ...We are a mercantile people - we believe that if we can just make the pot sweet enough for everybody, then everybody will agree and they'll go away in peace. If you're buying a car or a washing machine, that has a chance. Wars and genocides; not so much.

I can think of exactly two 'deals' that worked - the Confederate surrender at Appomattox, and the unconditional surrenders of the Germans and the Japanese at the end of WWII. I will leave it to the reader to divine what those two deals had in common.

Mike
Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2019-09-09 05:05||   2019-09-09 05:05|| Front Page Top

#2 See the source image

The cartoon thought bubble above my head says "Did you ever see Black Friday at Walmart?"
Posted by JohnQC 2019-09-09 08:52||   2019-09-09 08:52|| Front Page Top

#3 Thought Black Friday was mostly about who was queuing.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2019-09-09 09:40||   2019-09-09 09:40|| Front Page Top

#4 We like good deals. We don't like being had or played by our "betters" such as in the Obummer Iran bum nuclear deal. Better to walk away when deals go bad or try to find other levers to pull or buttons to push that are mutually beneficial.
Posted by JohnQC 2019-09-09 11:30||   2019-09-09 11:30|| Front Page Top

#5 the unconditional surrenders of the Germans and the Japanese at the end of WWII

EU?
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-09-09 12:49||   2019-09-09 12:49|| Front Page Top

#6 I will leave it to the reader to divine what those two deals had in common.

Overwhelming force.
Posted by Dron66046 2019-09-09 13:15||   2019-09-09 13:15|| Front Page Top

#7 I find it awfully awkward that nobody at Rantburg seems to mind that Trump (as he claims) invited America's mortal enemies, who aided and abetted 9/11, to Camp David.
Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-09 13:45||   2019-09-09 13:45|| Front Page Top

#8 I'm sure Merkel and Previous have been to the states as well.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2019-09-09 14:03||   2019-09-09 14:03|| Front Page Top

#9 ^LOL
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-09-09 14:06||   2019-09-09 14:06|| Front Page Top

#10 nobody at Rantburg seems to mind that Trump (as he claims) invited America's mortal enemies, who aided and abetted 9/11, to Camp David.

Two thoughts:
1) When they came, clone all their electronics and plant all sorts of bugs.

2) Until the plan was made, what did we really have to take away in negotiations? Now they are publicly humiliated by the reversal as well as losing a chance to meet with their contacts living in the U.S.

Besides, one doesn't make peace with friends, but with enemies, who often are not gentlemen. Vladimir Putin, for instance, used to be an officer in the KGB, the Chinese are still totalitarian communists who harvest organs from prisoners, and the PA are unreconstructed PLO terrorists with a smoother line of patter. Not that I ever expected peace talks with that particular faction of the Taliban to lead to any sort of peace — I really hoped it was never really more than an excuse to clone electronics and follow the delegates home — but they were also the only ones willing to talk at all.
Posted by trailing wife 2019-09-09 14:15||   2019-09-09 14:15|| Front Page Top

#11 When America has the stomach for total war, this author might have some relevance. We try to negotiate a treaty, or deal as he puts it, to stop bloodshed. The Japanese surrendered in a "Deal" to save their homeland from total destruction. We could have certainly won Korea, the Viet-Nam war and the war in Afghanistan with a total war concept. The issues I see with the treaties is most are brokered by the UN, With that there is zero teeth in the deal if one side breaks the treaty. If the treaty says Hezbollah will abide by the treaty or we nuke them, they will comply.
Posted by 49 Pan 2019-09-09 14:16||   2019-09-09 14:16|| Front Page Top

#12 @Bright Pebbles
That's quite a statement you make here.
Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-09 14:17||   2019-09-09 14:17|| Front Page Top

#13 EC, I'm willing to think it was a mistake he later corrected. He was just honest about it.
Posted by Dron66046 2019-09-09 14:19||   2019-09-09 14:19|| Front Page Top

#14 @tw
"Realpolitik" is a German word. But there are limits. For once I prefer the "deal" Obama made with Bin Laden.
Posted by European Conservative 2019-09-09 14:20||   2019-09-09 14:20|| Front Page Top

#15 People keep forgetting that Arafat went to Camp David, too. PLO/Taliban - 6 of one, half dozen of the other.
Posted by Spot 2019-09-09 16:31||   2019-09-09 16:31|| Front Page Top

#16 Clinton Brokers Israeli-PLO Peace Accords

This is the same Trump strategy we saw played with DPRK. Tease them, lure them, get them leaning forward then walk away. Standard business strategy for breaking merger teams by differentiating between principal players and posturing dead weight.
Posted by Skidmark 2019-09-09 16:45||   2019-09-09 16:45|| Front Page Top

#17 So much of what Trump does is easily recognizable as Business Negotiating 101. Obama was a crash course in how not to negotiate (tell the other side your bottom line up front, and never get up from the table 'cause you might lose the deal, a/k/a "deal fever".)
Posted by Matt 2019-09-09 17:07||   2019-09-09 17:07|| Front Page Top










Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com