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2015-11-15 Europe
Who Conducted the Paris Attacks
Assessment of the Paris attacks by Clint Watts of the FPRI blog, including an assessment matrix:
I generally look for four different potential perpetrators and scenarios:

  • An Al Qaeda Central (AQC) or al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) directed plot from Yemen or potentially Pakistan (AQAP is AQC at this point);


  • An ISIS directed plot from Syria and Iraq;


  • An al Qaeda inspired plot by supporters in the West; or


  • An ISIS inspired plot by supporters in the West, of which there have been several in recent months.


    • There could always be a fifth scenario, a completely unaffiliated different ideological movement that wants to conduct an attack (I call this the Andres Brevik scenario), but I think its not sufficiently likely to warrant analytical effort at this point. ISIS is the likely candidate right now, even based on the limited information that we have as seen in my chart.

    Here are some things I'm looking for right now:

  • Planning - This appears to be one of the more well planned attacks. Were there reports of reconnaisance before these attacks?


  • Targets Not Symbolic - The restaurant and the theater attacked don't appear to be particularly symbolic. Al Qaeda directed plots tend to go for spectacular targets, these are not. So I lean ISIS and I wonder, did any of these perpetrators work at these locations or frequent these spots? Is that how they got the idea to hit these locations?


  • A Suicide Bombing? And Several Armed Assaults? - This would be a significant advancement. We would be talking about explosives in the country, assault weapons, lots of planning. The French have a serious problem on their hands.


  • Weapons Training - Early reports suggest these shooters were calm and calculating. That would suggest weapons training and preparation, leading one to look for former foreign fighters from Syria or other theaters.


  • Communications - Al Qaeda did tight control of targeting of attacks with affiliates. I don't believe this is the case with ISIS. In the case of the ISIS Sinai affiliate, I don't have any evidence that ISIS Central in Iraq and Syria directed the airline bombing. Instead, I get the feeling the situation is the reverse, an affiliate or some global supporters and former foreign fighters execute an attack and then communicate back to central command (Baghdadi and top aides) what happened. Will we see that in this case, post attack reports of chatter back to Iraq and Syria?


  • Media Reporting Is Making ISIS Into ONE BIG THING! - I've been really frustrated the past few weeks as news reporting continues to push the theory, without evidence, that ISIS in Iraq and Syria, all affiliates that have pledged to ISIS and all global fanboys of ISIS act in unison under a central command. This was more the case with al Qaeda, but we don't know this to be true of ISIS. Thus, the public is becoming crazed with fears of an all powerful ISIS which is both untrue and unhelpful.
    • Posted by Pappy 2015-11-15 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11128 views ]  Top

    #1 The Amish have an extremely effective "false flag" division?
    Posted by Blossom Unains5562 2015-11-15 00:54||   2015-11-15 00:54|| Front Page Top

    #2 It was symbolic eating establishments old leader of Afghanistan pizza mexican afghan food and of the food references and housing stuff from chat rooms on the internet years ago! What was taking place at the entertainment venue? Or is this just a Holly Wood production saw something about a Rambo movie verse Isis it's all a message PEOPLE!
    Posted by Lampedusa Creretch3679 2015-11-15 08:58||   2015-11-15 08:58|| Front Page Top

    #3 If it was a football stadium that was in a chat room also them playing against the United States Air you know soccer ! Symbolism is a funny thing yes?
    Posted by Lampedusa Creretch3679 2015-11-15 09:03||   2015-11-15 09:03|| Front Page Top

    #4 by design or coincidence the attack in Paris occurred on Nov 13 which is the date, in 1918, in which the allies captured Constantinople, then capital of the Caliphate
    Posted by lord garth 2015-11-15 10:03||   2015-11-15 10:03|| Front Page Top

    #5 #4 Rantburversity
    Posted by g(r)omgoru 2015-11-15 10:07||   2015-11-15 10:07|| Front Page Top

    #6 by design or coincidence the attack in Paris occurred on Nov 13 which is the date, in 1918, in which the allies captured Constantinople, then capital of the Caliphate

    I'd bet on design. 9/11 was an anniversary, too.
    Posted by trailing wife 2015-11-15 10:57||   2015-11-15 10:57|| Front Page Top

    #7 Friday the 13th, the day of the public burning of the leader of the Knights Templar in Paris in 1309, a Christian Order initially chartered by the Pope to protect pilgrims to the Holy Land. Also, wasn't the Bataclan until very recently owned by a Jewish family/group and the site had a history of Pro-Jewish events?
    Posted by NoMoreBS 2015-11-15 11:49||   2015-11-15 11:49|| Front Page Top

    #8 Every day is an anniversary of something, in some culture.
    Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2015-11-15 12:19||   2015-11-15 12:19|| Front Page Top

    #9  wasn't the Bataclan until very recently owned by a Jewish family/group and the site had a history of Pro-Jewish events?

    Yes.
    Posted by trailing wife 2015-11-15 20:44||   2015-11-15 20:44|| Front Page Top

    		13:44 Abu Uluque
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