EFL, getting at the new information.
The hunt for bin Laden is an unprecedented confrontation between 21st-century technology and age-old guerrilla tactics. While the elusive terror chieftain hides in mountain caves and scurries along mule trails, Task Force 121 "bytes" away at him and his chief deputy, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, with the best the Information Age has to offer. Using powerful software called Analystâs Notebook, which helps to piece together data on criminal and terror networksâSpecial Forces command just ordered up more copiesâmilitary and intelligence officials are increasingly confident they are narrowing bin Ladenâs whereabouts.
Itâs a classic cat-and-mouse game in which tactics abruptly shift on both sides. In years past, U.S. officials listened in on bin Ladenâs cell-phone conversations. But he apparently no longer dares to use electronic means of communication. So McRaven and his hunters are now trying to snare his couriers in transit. They scored a major victory two months ago with the capture of Hassan Ghul, a Qaeda operative who was carrying what U.S. officials say was a strategic memo from Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, the mysterious terror leader allegedly behind the bombings of Shiites in Iraq. Ghul also yielded intel on bin Ladenâs position. Key to the search is "accumulated humint," or human intelligence, says one insider. Other officials tell NEWSWEEK that an increasing number of "data points"âreports of sightingsâhave created an ever-clearer picture of bin Ladenâs area of operation as he appears to shuttle between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Now theyâve focused that picture to the point where they have been able to send in Predator unmanned aerial vehicles to search for him.
If the hunters are getting closer to their prey, itâs also thanks to a renewed effort by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to infiltrate the border regions sympathetic to Al Qaeda. On Saturday, the BBC reported that bin Laden narrowly escaped one such Pakistani raid, and NEWSWEEK confirmed that such an incident occurred. Within the past few weeks, some intelligence sources say, a U.S. Predator also spotted a suspect believed to be Al-Zawahiri somewhere in the border area. Some Afghan and Pakistani sources, however, insist that bin Laden is several steps aheadâand that he will continue to outsmart his pursuers. A Taliban official in Pakistan, contacted by NEWSWEEK, says heâs heard that both top Qaeda leaders moved to more secure and separate locations in January, before the spate of publicity about an American "spring offensive." The Taliban official learned that, he said, from a ranking Qaeda operative, a Yemeni who told him that other Qaeda and Taliban fighters had moved into Afghan provinces more than 100 miles from the Pakistani border. "We decided to leave the dangerous zone for safer areas," the Arab told the Taliban official, who goes by the nom de guerre Zabihullah. "The sheik is now in the most secure area he has ever been in," the Arab said, referring to bin Laden. "We were all laughing at all these recent reports that the Americans had our sheik cornered." Zabihullah also said he received an encrypted e-mail last Thursday from a senior Qaeda source in Saudi Arabia. The Qaeda operative told him not to be taken in by the American "psychological warfare" campaign about bin Ladenâs imminent capture. He assured Zabihullah in the e-mail that "the sheik is in a safer place than ever and is more healthy than heâs ever been."
I hate to be the pessimist here, but we might do well to recall that the Mansoor Ijaz account later backed up by the Financial Times said that Binny and Ayman had body doubles running around the Afghan-Pakistan border while they were in Iran.
McRaven could be using psyop to flush bin Laden and others out of their hiding places. But the real key to success, the Task Force 121 commander knows, may be the "hammer and anvil" of converging U.S. Special Forces teams in Afghanistan and some 70,000 Pakistani forces in the border areas. In one recent operation in Waziristan, Pakistani security forces arrested several women married to foreign fighters, hoping for a lead on bin Laden. Similarly, they have destroyed the houses of tribesmen suspected of sheltering Qaeda fugitives. Pakistani officials said the tactic has worked, providing valuable information while apparently helping to drive Qaeda and Taliban fighters back across the Afghan borderâinto the hands, they hope, of Task Force 121. The standing U.S. offer of $25 million for bin Ladenâs head provides an extra incentive. "We now have all the ingredients in place for more effective operations in the days to come," says a senior Pakistani official. The man whoâs been tasked with blending those ingredients together, Bill McRaven, is betting on it. 
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