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2009-04-29 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

The two primary sources of information about the swine flu for you ought to be the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization. There are a great many people working around the clock on the swine flu epidemic at both places. but I suspect that the website updaters are daytime employees. The frequency of updates at both sites is limited.

The media is full of reports of "confirmed" cases. Take those with a grain of salt. Local testing in the U.S. is followed by testing at the CDC. Until the CDC says so, the cases are "probable". Some cases are turning out to be the seasonal flu.

We can anticipate additional cases in the United States and worldwide. Influenza can take from 1-7 days to develop after exposure, with most cases taking 2-3 days. The primary killer is not the flu itself, but pneumonia. In seasonal influenza the young, elderly and immuno-compromised are at highest risk of death.

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While the data is sketchy, this swine flu appears to be attacking a different age group. The U.S. cases, 64 in number as I write this, range in age from 7 to 54. The Mexicans, according to media reports, are reporting most casesin the 20-50 age group.

Keep in mind, however, that few of the Mexican cases have been tested and less than 30 are positive for swine flu out of the thousands who are ill. Some of the samples tested come back as seasonal flu. Leaving the swine flu out of the discussion, it does appear that the Mexican are having a bad year for seasonal influenza.

Influenza like illnesses, ILIs, abound. SARS is one, as an example. Many viruses produce ILIs which can then proceed to pneumonia. Without far more testing than has been done to day, there is no way to determine which illness[es] are causing the widespread sickness and deaths in Mexico.

There is no cure for any viral illness, including the swine flu. Antivirals if taken in time may prevent illness or shorten the durantion and lessen the severity of the illness.

There is no vaccine for the swine flu. Creating one will take nearly six months. The CDC is pessimistic about the seasonal vaccine having any benefit in preventing the swine flu.

Swine flu symptoms are virtually identical to those of the seasonal flu. Upper respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, extreme fatigue. Vomiting and/or diarrhea are more common in children with seasonal influenza. It has been suggested that adult swine flu patients seem to experience more gastric symptoms than normal.

All of the U.S. cases to date have been mild. There has been one hospitalization. The outbreak at St. Francis Prep in NYC constitutes the majority of U.S. cases. A few students went on Spring Break to Mexico and the illness appears to have spread from them. Most of the cases are in patients who travelled to Mexico in the last month, or in their families.

St. Francis Prep's cases seem to confirm human to human transmission, which is why the WHO raised the pandemic alert level.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2009-04-29 00:12|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top

#1 All of the U.S. cases to date have been mild.

Not any more. Fatality reported from Texas this morning.

Posted by Glenmore 2009-04-29 10:03|| 2009-04-29 10:03|| Front Page Top

#2 That one doesn't really count. A Mexican infant brought across the border for treatment.

Mortal cases of the swine flu are showing signs of being limited to Mexico, though profiling with the cytokine storm effect.

However, influenza outbreaks in Mexico are very rare, because of the heat, humidity, and northern deserts acting as a barrier to the US. This means that Mexicans have far less resistance to influenza than do Americans.

The cytokine storm effect happens in response to new, or significantly different influenza. So it is relative to the individual, not the disease.

Ironically, this swine flu may eventually save hundreds of thousands of lives, because it is the perfect "training exercise" to prepare for the H5N1 avian flu.

The swine flu is a firecracker compared to the nuclear weapon of avian flu.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-04-29 10:19|| 2009-04-29 10:19|| Front Page Top

#3 Wasn't the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak of the H1N1 "swine flu" strain?

I agree, it's not nearly as bad as the asian bird flu one, but it's apparent contagious characteristics are frightening.

Posted by Anon4021 2009-04-29 11:06|| 2009-04-29 11:06|| Front Page Top

#4 The swine flu is a firecracker compared to the nuclear weapon of avian flu.

This is a never before seen virus has been sequenced and is avian/swine/human type A. That being said, many Americans were encouraged to get a flu shot last fall, with the susceptible students being the typically healthy category not advised to get one. We are probably more resistant to it from past infections, etc.

Posted by Thealing Borgia 122 2009-04-29 11:58|| 2009-04-29 11:58|| Front Page Top

#5 Moose, while the cause of cytokine storms is not known for certain, I think the cytokine storm is an immune system response when the individual has been infected by a similar influenza strain.

Which is why waves 2 and 3 were much worse in 1918. Also this is known to be the case with dengue another viral disease.

Also note the cytokine storm / hemmorhagic form of dengue from infection by multiple strains is the reason why there is no vaccine for dengue. Attempts at creating vaccines causes the hemmorhagic form in the same way as previous infection by a different strain.

Which is why I will not get any vaccine offered.

Posted by Phil_B 2009-04-29 12:33|| 2009-04-29 12:33|| Front Page Top

#6 Somewhat related, or maybe not - on one of the science oriented cable channels there was a program about how new historical/archaeological research is showing that the evil Spanish Conquistadors were probably not responsible for a wave of illness that wiped out most of the Aztec population in the decades following the arrival of the Spanish. I forget what the disease was, maybe hantavirus, but it was locally spawned. This may force a revision of the Guns, Germs, Steel type theories.

Posted by Cynicism Inc 2009-04-29 15:15|| 2009-04-29 15:15|| Front Page Top

#7 DoD UNCLAS Swine Flu update site.

HERE

Posted by Besoeker 2009-04-29 20:03|| 2009-04-29 20:03|| Front Page Top

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