Amir Taheri
Iran's decision-making elite, consisting of some 100 mullahs and their non-clerical protégés, is divided into two camps with regard to Iraq. One camp, led by former prime minister Mir-Hussein Mussavi, with Khatami as figurehead, could be labeled "accommodationist." Its main argument is that Iran's best interest lies in a partnership with the United States in toppling the Iraqi regime. Facing the accommodationists is the faction one could call "the confrontationists," led by Rafsanjani. The "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei, who lashed out against the U.S. in an address to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards on March 11, represents the public face of the faction.
Unlike the accommodationists who foresee an easy American victory, the confrontationists believe that U.S. involvement in Iraq could become "the beginning of its end." "Iraq is a swamp," Khamenei said in his address to the guards. "The Great Satan will get caught in that swamp; and that will speed up its inevitable collapse." In a recent article Velayati spelled out a strategy aimed at "confronting the Great Satan in a number of fronts." Iraq will be one front. Iran has concentrated the so-called Badr Brigade, named after the Prophet Muhammad's first major military victory, along the border with Iraq. The brigade is a 10,000-man force of Iraqi Shiite gunnies guerrillas. On March 14 some of the men organized a highly publicized parade inside Iraqi Kurdistan.
Iran also has a 6,000-man Kurdish force, known as the Hezbollah of Kurdistan, and positioned astride the border close to Sardasht.
The accommodationist faction supports the so-called Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI) led by Ayatollah Muhammad-Baqer Hakim Tabatabi, who lives in Teheran.
| I think he was thinking one thing there and wrote another. SAIRI would be on the confrontationist side. Badr Brigades is a SAIRI armed wing... |
The confrontationists for their part have close ties with two other Shiite groups: the Hizb al-Daawah ("Party of the Call") and the Islamic Labor party, both of which have headquarters in Damascus.
Another front, according to Velayati, will be Afghanistan, where Iran has forged close ties with Ismail Khan, the "emir" of Herat, and is arming the Hazara Shiites in Bamiyan and Maydan-Shahr. Still another front could be Azerbaijan, where Iran has won influence in the Talesh region on the Caspian Sea. Ironically, Iran's allies in Azerbaijan are Sunni Muslims opposed to the Shiite majority whose leaders have opted for a pro-American foreign policy complimented by close ties with Turkey. Iran also has considerable influence in Armenia, where, in tandem with Russia, it helped Armenian forces capture the Azerbaijani enclave of High Karabagh [Nagorno-Karabakh] a decade ago.
| Don't know where he got that. Any help provided by Iran was minimal. Armenia has historically had ties with both Persia and the west, from the time "Persia" was Parthia and the west was Rome, and they've always made it a balancing act, usually to their detriment... |
Velayati insists that Iran should avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. He recommends "the lighting of countless small fires here and there" designed to stretch U.S. forces and, in time, persuade American public opinion that Pax Americana in the Middle East is not worth the price. The major front Velayati envisages will be opened against Israel. Iran is speeding up military supplies to the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah. According to Teheran sources the Lebanese Hezbollah is already in possession of over 10,000 rockets of various descriptions. These include Fajr III and Fajr IV, upgrades of the Soviet-designed Katyusha, with improved ranges of between 50 and 70 km. Although fairly unsophisticated weapons â the rockets lack a proper guiding system â they could, nevertheless, wreak havoc if used in large numbers in a compact and densely populated area.
The fight between the accommodationists and the confrontationists has split Shiite religious opinion with regard to Iraq. Most senior Iraqi and Iranian ayatollahs have issued fatwas approving an alliance with "the Americans infidel" to get rid of Saddam. These include Grand Ayatollah Ali-Muhammad Sistani (in Najaf, Iraq) and Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Muhammad Shirazi (in Qom, Iran). Mullahs linked with the confrontationist faction, however, have issued fatwas urging alliance with "the infidel Saddam and his Baathists" against the U.S. Among these mullahs are Muhammad-Hussein Fadhlallah, spiritual leader of the Lebanese branch of the Hezbollah, and Taqi Muddaressi, a Syrian-backed Iraqi mullah. For the time being then, the confrontation camp seems to be in the ascendant. It is not only gathering wood for the "many fires" envisaged by Velayati, it is also speeding up Iran's nuclear program in the hope of having an "effective deterrent" within two years, the period needed before things become clear in Iraq. 
|
