Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2012-07-22 00:37||
#2 Looking at what happened to Qaddafi and currently he may choose to use them to avoid a similar fate.
Should Russia and China turn their backs on him he will use them. I don't think he is in that bad of shape. I don't buy the western media propaganda. He has the power of a tyrant. He knows how this will play out should he lose power.
Posted by Dale 2012-07-22 06:54||
#3 There's been enough desertion in the military that if he does use it, he can't be certain it won't be played back at him. It's an area denial weapon which requires a good grasp of existing meteorological conditions. Guessing could create literally a blowback situation. Given the 'quality' of Soviet era designs and implementations of the equipment, it could hurt you has much as help you.
Posted by Procopius2k 2012-07-22 08:02||
#4 It is a retributive strike. Not a weapon of war -- a weapon of spite.
Posted by rammer 2012-07-22 09:33||
#5 It was used operationally/tactically in the 'Great War' as an attempt to break the stalemate of the trench lines. It was used in the Iran-Iraq War as a counter to something akin to human wave attack tactics. It was seriously consider by Gen. George Marshall, Army Chief of Staff, for the Pacific portion of WWII due to the increasing casualties being sustained in the island campaigns in 1945.
Posted by Procopius2k 2012-07-22 10:07||
#6 Maybe Assad should remember what happened to Saddam Hussein and Chemical Ali - after they used chemical weapons on their people. There is a price to be paid here, folks. It will catch up with you.
It's pretty clear, still, that the greatest risk by far - is Assad turning over some of these warheads to Al Qaeda. If Syria goes to pieces, it will become a supermarket for weapons that makes Libya look like a corner drug store by comparison.
Assad is acting like he's got a perfect escape plan up his back pocket. It didn't turn out so well for Gaddafi. Wonder why Assad thinks he will be different??
Posted by Raider 2012-07-22 10:37||
#7 ...citing rebel intelligence obtained in recent days.
Rebel intelligence ya say!?! Well then...it must be true.
Posted by DepotGuy 2012-07-22 11:31||
THEY ARE SHELLING THE CAPITOL.
Posted by Mizzou Mafia 2012-07-22 15:35||
#9 Raider, not al Qaida - Hezb'allah.
Posted by lotp 2012-07-22 15:41||
#10 Assad hasn't had to worry about NATO yet.
Maybe the Roosians leaned something from Libya.
Posted by Bobby 2012-07-22 16:16||
#11 He has the power of a tyrant.
Actually, he has at his disposal much more concrete assets like armor, artillery and combat aircraft.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-07-22 19:29||
#12 THEY ARE SHELLING THE CAPITOL.
When GI's had the run of the Iraq, Iraqi guerrillas controlled big sections of Baghdad. I think all that this shows is that the rebels aren't just a few dozen guys with small arms, but a real guerrilla force of thousands, at minimum. For some reason, Assad has avoided a full-scale mobilization and relied on the military professionals and some militia to deal with the problem. Military age Alawite civilians (18-28 range) who have been interviewed appear completely disconnected from it.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-07-22 19:37||
#13 I kind of understand it - he needs to keep the economy going, given that Syria doesn't have Uncle Sugar pumping $100b a year into the country. At the same time, he might be better off with a full mobilization that is used to crush the rebellion quickly in a massive bloodbath, Assad Sr-style, rather than drawing this out. Maybe he's doing the gradual thing because he fears a bloodbath would result in a NATO intervention.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-07-22 19:43||
#14 he's got limits imposed by his Russian suppliers as well, I'm sure
Posted by Frank G 2012-07-22 19:56||