Article

2012-04-09 Africa North

'Suleiman's election could trigger nationwide revolt'

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Posted by trailing wife 2012-04-09 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 On the plus side, he'll know how to deal with such "nationwide revolt".

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2012-04-09 10:38|| 2012-04-09 10:38|| Front Page Top

#2 A revolt might transpire. A perennial problem for revolt-minded individuals is not knowing the breadth of support for their cause. Anyone who risks his life in such an endeavor wants to know that he's not merely throwing it away for a hopeless cause. The 75% of votes cast for Islamist parties in Egypt assures Islamists that they have tens of millions of fellow travelers - enough to give the military a run for its money. And that is what will sustain any Islamist rebellion - the knowledge that there are more of them than any other combination of factions, by a factor of 3.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-04-09 10:39|| 2012-04-09 10:39|| Front Page Top

#3 At the same time, it has to be said that numbers alone do not ensure the success of a revolt. Algeria, which elected an Islamist majority to office, and then had its military government rescind the elections, was successful in squashing the Islamist revolt that ensued. The masses might have their convictions, but the military does have most of the guns and the training to use them.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-04-09 10:44|| 2012-04-09 10:44|| Front Page Top

#4 The thing about the Egyotian army, as I understand it, is that the ranks are filled with draftees, in for two years. The officers and NCOs are professionals, but can one fight an Algerian-style civil war when a good portion of the force is both unskilled and untrustworthy?

Posted by trailing wife 2012-04-09 11:35|| 2012-04-09 11:35|| Front Page Top

#5 The thing about the Egyotian army, as I understand it, is that the ranks are filled with draftees, in for two years. The officers and NCOs are professionals, but can one fight an Algerian-style civil war when a good portion of the force is both unskilled and untrustworthy?

The regime in power has access to the full resources of the state, however meager they may be. Rebel movements generally don't have that. The Gulf states are extremely unhappy that Mubarak was deposed, and will spend what they need to keep Mubarak's confederates standing. Short of a NATO intervention on behalf of the Islamists, I can't see how they would be able to stand against the repressive machinery of the military. As Barry Rubin noted, Mubarak's fall consisted of a coup by military officials who concluded that he was simultaneously too sick to rule and too much of a lightning rod.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-04-09 12:41|| 2012-04-09 12:41|| Front Page Top

#6 The regime in power has access to the full resources of the state

Ah. I forgot to think about the police and the secret police as being as much tools as the army proper. Thank you for explaining, Zhang Fei.

Posted by trailing wife 2012-04-09 15:55|| 2012-04-09 15:55|| Front Page Top

#7 Ah. I forgot to think about the police and the secret police as being as much tools as the army proper. Thank you for explaining, Zhang Fei.

I'm not referring to the secret police. What keeps Assad standing is that he has full access - although somewhat attenuated by the disruptive effects of an insurgency - to the financial resources of the Republic of Syria. The power of the purse is a serious weapon, and it is the primary reason why most rebellions fail - the ruling power can feed and arm its troops whereas the rebels are living hand-to-mouth.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-04-09 18:13|| 2012-04-09 18:13|| Front Page Top

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