Article

2011-02-02 Africa North

Mubarak supporters suspected to be disguised soldiers

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Posted by Fred 2011-02-02 13:29|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 The Saudi check cleared.

Posted by Procopius2k 2011-02-02 15:52|| 2011-02-02 15:52|| Front Page Top

#2 My bet is that Mubarak knows that he won't have the US support if he leaves and won't have any support if he cracks down with his armed forces visibly. Which leaves this option.

Posted by DarthVader 2011-02-02 15:55|| 2011-02-02 15:55|| Front Page Top

#3 My bet is that Mubarak knows that he won't have the US support if he leaves and won't have any support if he cracks down with his armed forces visibly. Which leaves this option.

I doubt Mubarak's actions have anything to do with the measly amount of US aid (< 1% of Egypt's GDP) he gets. It's more a question of worrying about the balance of power between his loyal supporters, liberal reformers and Islamist infiltrators in the security services, and the potential shift of allegiances depending on what he does to crack down and when he does it. His grip on power depends on good timing. Too early, and he loses support in the power structure from people who think he jumped the gun. Too late, and he get shoved out of office on momentum alone. I think he has to get to the point when the security services get disgusted with the mob. Then he can clean house and be applauded for it, at least internally. And that's all he needs to stay in power.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-02-02 16:05|| 2011-02-02 16:05|| Front Page Top

#4 That's what Louis XVI thought, too.

Posted by Fred 2011-02-02 16:25|| 2011-02-02 16:25|| Front Page Top

#5 That's what Louis XVI thought, too.

Louis XVI inherited his throne, whereas Mubarak had an arduous climb to the top of the greasy pole. No one gets to Mubarak's position without considerable political skills within the power structure. The reason his son Gamal will not succeed him is because the guy's a technocrat, a paper pusher. Guys like Gamal work for people like Mubarak - he can be a capo but never capofamiglia.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-02-02 16:39|| 2011-02-02 16:39|| Front Page Top

#6 The internet came back up in Egypt--the reason is unclear. May fit in with what Zhang Fei says about furthering dissent only to come in and clean it up.

Posted by JohnQC 2011-02-02 16:40|| 2011-02-02 16:40|| Front Page Top

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