Article

2007-07-08 Iraq

Iraq: More than 100 dead in suicide truck bombing

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Posted by Fred 2007-07-08 00:00|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top
File under: Iraqi Insurgency

#1 Huge number. However, with self-protected ethnic zones, these bombings would probably not occur. Would that sanction the al-Sadrite ethnic politics? Hell no; they are terrorists. We kill terrorists.

We cannot resolve the Sunni-Shiite conflict. We can only create buffer zones, and reduce terrorists to operations outside of protected enclaves. Incredibly, with Shiite troops encroaching on Baghdad airport passes, we left them in place south of the Tigris River, and fortified a Sunni village north of the river, by setting up an expensive security wall that can be breached by mortars. A Sunni-Shiite separation on the Tigris would suck the blood out of the civil war.

We have seen how locals quickly become fed up with Al-Qaeda in Iraq. So rather than patrolling 24-7 through IED country, and putting holes in American family trees, we should get reliable ground intelligence from locals, and then strike enemy strongholds from the air. A version of the fortified-hamlet system in Vietnam, where locals handled most of their own security, would work. Iraqis are well aware that al-Qaeda in Iraq held a huge rally in Mosul last week. Al-Jazeera was quick to celebrate that spit in the occupation face; our media didn't report it.

House Republicans have sent out feelers that they need more than the status quo. Their support needs to be earned.

Posted by McZoid 2007-07-08 01:25|| 2007-07-08 01:25|| Front Page Top

#2 I read earlier that this attack was on a Turkmen village, a smaller ethnic group than the Arabs, Kurds, or (with all the Iranian Republican Guard cadres) Persians. If that is correct, it probably won't do much towards inflaming the Shia-Sunni civil war that has been the object of so many of this kind of attack - even if they were Shia, they were 'other' Shia, and not so important.

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2007-07-08 03:16|| 2007-07-08 03:16|| Front Page Top

#3 At a guess, this is an attempt by the Sunnis to bring Turkish troops into Kurdistan again, hoping they attack and weaken the Kurds who so inconveniently insist on their portion of the oil in that region.

Posted by lotp 2007-07-08 09:06|| 2007-07-08 09:06|| Front Page Top

#4 I found this interesting, from a commenter at Bill Roggio ...

Of the eight or so reports I have seen about the Amirli attack, all of them stated north of Baghdad but not a single one gave the number of miles. I didnt catch the one that stated that the attack was actually in the Baghdad area. Maybe could chalk this up to ignorance or laziness, but this throws the presses description of what is going on way off.

Amirli is 95 miles straight north of the center of Baghdad, with the Hamrin mountain range between. I used the Google Earth mileage tool. 50 miles south of Kurkuk is a more logical description. There is a valley that runs North West to South East with the Hamrin mountains forming the western boundary on the west side and foothills of the Zagros Mountains and city of Kurkuk forming the eastern boundary. This is a very ethnically mixed region with Kurds tending toward the eastern boundary, enclaves of both Sunni and Shiite Turkmen throughout the valley and Sunni Arabs dominating the Western area along the Hamrin Mountains.

I suppose we will be hearing a lot about this valley and the Hamrin Mountains in the near future. The Hamrin Mountains have been a refuge of last resort to people in the area since prehistory. I dont know what Saddams regime left in the area in way of ammunition caches and dumps.

The bad news, at least in the short term, is that there arent really enough troops to effectively flush them out of the area. The good news is that the Hamrin Mountains are the last refuge for large scale AQI operations. Al Qaeda seems to be taking up residence in the area between the east bank of the Tigris river and the Hamrin Mountains an area about 50 miles wide that runs from Tikrit in the north down to northern Diyala province. I also expect a spike in attacks in Mosul and Kurkuk but it remains to be seen if Al Quada has the force structure left to make serious inroads against any of the Northern Cities.

I would expect it would be late fall before resources come on line to really clamp down on the east bank of the Tigris and Hamrin Mountain regions. In the mean time expect Shiite Turkmen and Shiite Kurds at the south end of valley to get hit repeatedly. I expect this will have almost the same propaganda value as bombing Baghdad for impressing the western press about the hopelessness of the Iraqi situation. In the mean time Al Quada risks antagonizing the entire Turkmen population.

Posted by Neo-andertal | July 8, 2007 1:57 PM

Posted by Sherry">Sherry 2007-07-08 20:35|| 2007-07-08 20:35|| Front Page Top

#5 Thanks for that added info, Sherry. That changes my estimate re: Turkey. So far, at least, I haven't heard of the Turks threatening to step in anywhere south of Kirkuk.

Posted by lotp 2007-07-08 21:19|| 2007-07-08 21:19|| Front Page Top

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