Article

2007-06-14 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Hamas appears close to taking over entire Gaza Strip

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Posted by Fred 2007-06-14 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 I'm thinking that this may not be such a bad thing after all. With Fatah shoved aside, the only responsible party remaining is Hamas. This would seemingly permit Israel much greater latitude in prosecuting all further missile launches and terrorist attacks. It might be best that Fatah retire to the West Bank and give Israel a clear field to do some serious house cleaning in Gaza. Not only could Fatah generate some badly needed credibility with Israel, but also they would have their heavy lifting done for them free of charge.

I also think that an ensuing round of murderous Hamas led purges within the Gaza strip might give the Palestinians a better idea of just what they've gotten themselves into. Several hundred more brutal deaths would only serve to cement Hamas' reputation as a genuine terrorist organization. Another benefit of this is that, by rights, with Hamas in total control, all foreign funding to the Gaza strip should be shut down entirely. Special separate financial conduits should be set up to provide for the West Bank only. This would represent yet one more lever to force recognition of just what a truly bad decision it was to have elected Hamas.

Israel has a sterling opportunity to play the "Good Cop/Bad Cop" role to the hilt. They can assume a slightly more benevolent posture towards the West Bank while unleashing the harshest retaliations against Gaza. They could easily turn this into a huge win-win situation. Provided, that is, if Olmert has both the wisdom and ostiones to seize this possibly golden opportunity.

I'd really enjoy hearing what trailing wife and other more-well-versed contributors have to say about the above observations. This could represent a unique chance for Israel to, for once, significantly differentiate in how they deal with Fatah and Hamas. Of course, the entire foregoing also relies upon Fatah acting in good faith as well, and we all know just how extraordinary that would be.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-06-14 00:47|| 2007-06-14 00:47|| Front Page Top

#2 Another benefit of this is that, by rights, with Hamas in total control, all foreign funding to the Gaza strip should be shut down entirely.

Won't happen Zenster. Euros* may get to the state of running concentration camps for their Muzzi population, and they'll still be funding Paleos.

*For the purpose of this discussion: USDS is a European institution.

Posted by gromgoru 2007-06-14 05:00|| 2007-06-14 05:00|| Front Page Top

#3 "With Fatah shoved aside, the only responsible party remaining is Hamas. This would seemingly permit Israel much greater latitude in prosecuting all further missile launches and terrorist attacks. It might be best that Fatah retire to the West Bank and give Israel a clear field to do some serious house cleaning in Gaza. Not only could Fatah generate some badly needed credibility with Israel, but also they would have their heavy lifting done for them free of charge."

Israel wont get a clear field. First off, Fatah can hardly ok the clear field, without alienating the population in the West Bank, who may not like Hamas, but will sympathize with any civies hurt in Gaza by Israelis, even if the Israelis are going after Hamas. Second, even if Fatah DID give its ok, in large parts of the arab and muslim worlds, and some parts of the Euro left, that will only lead to dismissing Fatah. Fatah in that case would provide only minimal cover for the Israelis. Anything "disproportionate" will still lead to UN resolutions, boycotts, etc. And most important, embarassment to the US, which will pressure Israel to react with "restraint". Maybe they will be somewhat tougher than theyve been, but I wouldnt expect it to be by an order of magnitude.

"I also think that an ensuing round of murderous Hamas led purges within the Gaza strip might give the Palestinians a better idea of just what they've gotten themselves into. Several hundred more brutal deaths would only serve to cement Hamas' reputation as a genuine terrorist organization."

Here I think you are on more solid ground. We've seen a taste of that already this week in Gaza. With no more political game to play with Fatah, it will be tempting for Hamas to unbare their fangs completely, esp given the makeup of whos running Hamas in Gaza now. Assad may be smart enough to try to restrain them, but maybe not, and even if he were, could he? This would be important not so much in Gaza (what are the Gazans going to do, maybe a guerilla campaign?) but in weakening the image of Hamas around the world.

"Another benefit of this is that, by rights, with Hamas in total control, all foreign funding to the Gaza strip should be shut down entirely. Special separate financial conduits should be set up to provide for the West Bank only. This would represent yet one more lever to force recognition of just what a truly bad decision it was to have elected Hamas."

Hard to pull off, as Hamas as over a million Pal hostages, and an unlimited ability to play their suffering before the cameras.

"Israel has a sterling opportunity to play the "Good Cop/Bad Cop" role to the hilt. They can assume a slightly more benevolent posture towards the West Bank while unleashing the harshest retaliations against Gaza. They could easily turn this into a huge win-win situation. "

Maybe marginal gains, I dont see a huge win-win.

"Provided, that is, if Olmert has both the wisdom and ostiones to seize this possibly golden opportunity."

Olmert is history. Once the full Winograd report is out, he will almost certainly step down, and Kadima will select a new leader. Depending on the polls, Kadima and Labour might go for new elections, or more likely Ehud Barak, the new head of Labour, and whoever is the new head of Kadima, will try to hang on longer.

Barak will likely be the new Defense Minister. Unlike Peretz, Barak is quite experienced in security matters, and willing to take risks, both in war and in diplomacy. He would be eager to try something big, but whether a still weakened govt will have the oomph to pull it off remains to be seen.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-06-14 09:26|| 2007-06-14 09:26|| Front Page Top

#4 Assad may be smart enough to try to restrain them, but maybe not, and even if he were, could he?

That depends on whether it's just the Syrians that are in Gaza, or other parties as well. To my semi-trained eye, there is a push on (Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq).

The question is if it's a ploy to buy negotiating power on behalf of Syria's cohort (Iran). Given the increased activity in Iraq, that's a possibility.

The other possibilities are:

1) Whether it's a move to set up a two-front attack on Israel when Hezb'allah tries 'round two'. or

2) Gaza will act as a distraction (to prevent a move by Israel against southern Lebanon)while an Syrian/Iranian-sponsored assault on Beirut is made. This seems the most likely to me.

Posted by Pappy 2007-06-14 10:03|| 2007-06-14 10:03|| Front Page Top

#5 Pappy---It seems to me that Hamas in Gaza will keep Israel occupied, and that you are right about the Syrian-Iranian assault on Beiruit. If northern Lebanon is neutralized by Hizb'Allah, then they have the run of Lebanon, and Israel is further boxed in.

It sounds like Israel is going to have to do something preemptive like they did in 1967 to take out these threats. A Hamas run Gaza will become rocket or missile city, just southern Lebanon.

Israel needs a Moshe Dyan, not an Olmert, for her survival.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2007-06-14 15:41|| 2007-06-14 15:41|| Front Page Top

#6 Oh, good -- all the people who actually understand the subject answered Zenster's call, saving me from looking silly. Thanks, guys!

My two cents anyway, mostly stuff y'all already know: the West Bank and Gaza always were two somewhat distinct populations claiming the name of Palestinian for convenience. Palestinian ties are primarily those of blood (family, clan, tribe, whatever) and religion (Sunni, Shiite, atheist national socialist "Arab Nation"); the primary political factions follow those lines, then split off by age (all the fighting arms are younger and more radical than the main groups) and by individual need to be an emir. So even though Hamas will have cleansed their territory of Fatah, they still have to erase enough of the other groups to cement their overlordship. After that comes the takfir game, when all those less pure have to be removed from the scene...

Fatah will have to do the same in the West Bank, I think, just to ensure their own safety. In the meantime -- and y'all must remember that I really don't understand how mean people think, let alone truly evil ones -- I don't think there's going to be much more than lobbing kassem rockets over the fence and the occasional attempt at suicide bombing, like the two charming Islamic Jihad ladies whose capture is reported in these pages, no matter how much the erstwhile puppeteers in Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia may push them to provide second and otherwise fronts this summer.

Also, I'm not sure how much a distraction either the West Bank or Gaza will be in the face of a real war with Hizb'allah in Lebanon or Iran getting frisky with its missiles. Because Israel can completely shut down the crossings out of the Territories, and Palestinian rocketry, while destructive of property and in the nearby Israeli communities being hit, is not an effective war weapon, as far as I can tell in my ignorance of such things.

There! Feel free to gently show me where I've erred in my analysis, my dears.

Posted by trailing wife 2007-06-14 20:46|| 2007-06-14 20:46|| Front Page Top

#7 After that comes the takfir game, when all those less pure have to be removed from the scene...

A double feature at matinee prices? Kewl!

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-06-14 20:54|| 2007-06-14 20:54|| Front Page Top

#8 while destructive of property and morale in the nearby Israeli communities

PIMF!!

Posted by trailing wife 2007-06-14 20:59|| 2007-06-14 20:59|| Front Page Top

#9 Jenifer -absolutley on the money. Israel can/should shut off all commerce, water, power, and phones to the animals in charge in Gaza. Egypt needs to decide whether they want this boil on their border and shut off the tunnels. Raise the heat...and kill all the Hamas members in the WB. Their are now two states - plus Israel. Make Gaza the living hell the populace voted in - consequences of Democracy, asshats? Deal favorably with teh WB and Fatah as much as possible to show teh carrot and stick, and when the Qassams fly from Gaza? Destroy 10 sq blocks for every rocket. Start on the boder and intermittently announce, then follow through with the leveling of Hamas big's neighborhoods...a 10 block sq at a time

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-06-14 21:37|| 2007-06-14 21:37|| Front Page Top

#10 Also, I'm not sure how much a distraction either the West Bank or Gaza will be in the face of a real war with Hizb'allah in Lebanon or Iran getting frisky with its missiles. Because Israel can completely shut down the crossings out of the Territories, and Palestinian rocketry, while destructive of property and in the nearby Israeli communities being hit, is not an effective war weapon, as far as I can tell in my ignorance of such things.

I don't think Iran will launch missiles. As for Gaza, what trouble Hamas can create depends what Hamas has on hand, and who is calling the shots. The intent would be to tie down a significant portion of the IDF and border forces.

I don't believe the crossings are where Hamas would intend to come through.

Posted by Pappy 2007-06-14 21:39|| 2007-06-14 21:39|| Front Page Top

#11 Their not there? Jeebus! PIMF is ignored in a frenzy, no?

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-06-14 21:44|| 2007-06-14 21:44|| Front Page Top

#12 Their are now two states - plus Israel.

Yup, talk about a "two state" solution to the Palestinian crisis!

Make Gaza the living hell the populace voted in - consequences of Democracy, asshats? Deal favorably with the WB and Fatah as much as possible to show the carrot and stick

What's not to like? Much as I said as well. This is the perfect time to bring home the consequences of democratically empowering Islamic terrorism. Iraq should be taking notes from the sidelines if they have a brain (which they may well not).

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-06-14 22:00|| 2007-06-14 22:00|| Front Page Top

#13 I don't think Iran will launch missiles.

Bless you for that, Pappy. I've been having not-quite-nightmares about the missiles. Truly, I read your words and it was like a weight I hadn't realized was there dropped from my shoulders. As for the rest of your post, thank you for being gentle. ;-)

Frank, in the frenzy, a great deal more than there/their went awry. On the other hand, I used to have perfect spelling and grammar, do you remember? Now I'm happy if readers can figure out what I meant while ignoring what I actually typed. ;-)

Posted by trailing wife 2007-06-14 23:34|| 2007-06-14 23:34|| Front Page Top

#14 :-)

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-06-14 23:54|| 2007-06-14 23:54|| Front Page Top

23:56 Pappy
23:54 Frank G
23:52 Zenster
23:43 Zenster
23:38 trailing wife
23:38 Zenster
23:34 trailing wife
23:25 Red Dawg
23:24 Zenster
22:46 Zenster
22:43 borgboy2001
22:39 Shieldwolf
22:37 Mike N.
22:27 Old Patriot
22:19 Frank G
22:03 GK
22:00 Zenster
21:52 Zenster
21:44 Frank G
21:39 Pappy
21:37 Frank G
21:20 occasional observer
21:20 occasional observer
21:17 Anonymoose