Article

2007-02-13 China-Japan-Koreas

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by MacNails 2007-02-13 04:11|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Little hollow at the moment with little substance , but hey are they caving in to internal and diplomatic pressure ? Or are they gonna take the money and eeer run !

Posted by MacNails 2007-02-13 04:14|| 2007-02-13 04:14|| Front Page Top

#2 I'm having deja vu.

Only believe it if you get unimpeded access to all their weird tunnels, etc. It's all part of the same problem in my book.

Posted by gorb 2007-02-13 04:58|| 2007-02-13 04:58|| Front Page Top

#3 Maybe they've fulfilled all their contracts for Iran now?

Posted by exJAG 2007-02-13 05:12|| 2007-02-13 05:12|| Front Page Top

#4 Sounds a lot like Clinton's "sucessful negotiation".

Posted by Bobby 2007-02-13 06:02|| 2007-02-13 06:02|| Front Page Top

#5 This is such BULLSH!T!!!! When are these ASSHO!!S gonna learn

Posted by ARMYGUY 2007-02-13 06:29|| 2007-02-13 06:29|| Front Page Top

#6 The phrase "Hands up and drop the nukes." comes to mind, but don't see that anywhere in the fine print. Lucy-Football-Charle Brown Part Deux begins. So the financial albatross is removed from Chinese necks and placed upon the US taxpayer. No thanks. I'll wait for the collapse.

Posted by ed 2007-02-13 07:10|| 2007-02-13 07:10|| Front Page Top

#7 The definition of insanity. You keep doing the same things over and over expecting different results.

Our government is completely fucking insane.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-02-13 07:22|| 2007-02-13 07:22|| Front Page Top

#8 John Bolton disagrees too.
"I am very disturbed by this deal," Bolton told CNN. "It sends exactly the wrong signal to would-be proliferators around the world: 'If we hold out long enough, wear down the State Department negotiators, eventually you get rewarded,' in this case with massive shipments of heavy fuel oil for doing only partially what needs to be done."

Posted by Mullah Richard 2007-02-13 07:54|| 2007-02-13 07:54|| Front Page Top

#9 no ignorant comment from Carter or Halfbright? Perhaps even they know it's a ruse

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-02-13 08:27|| 2007-02-13 08:27|| Front Page Top

#10 "Lucy-Football-Charle Brown Part Deux begins"

Mebbe. this time though Skor and more importantly China have inked the deal. If Nkor pulls the ball away its now on Chinas back to help enforce the deal. Which is at least some progress.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-13 09:16|| 2007-02-13 09:16|| Front Page Top

#11 Ha! You my #1 fonny man LH. Next we talk protection of intellectual property rights.

Posted by ed 2007-02-13 09:29|| 2007-02-13 09:29|| Front Page Top

#12 Isnt this why we were insisting on 6 party talks instead of the direct US-Nkor talks the left was calling for? What was the point of that if not to reach an agreement?

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-13 09:32|| 2007-02-13 09:32|| Front Page Top

#13 The definition of insanity. You keep doing the same things over and over expecting different results.

Our government is completely fucking insane.

These idiots don't know how to do anything else. Probably, not one of them has ever been in a fist fight. They're sniveling cowards, everyone of them. The day is coming.

Posted by Omolurt Elmeaper6990 2007-02-13 09:46|| 2007-02-13 09:46|| Front Page Top

#14 Stall for time and increase the pain until collapse. The rationale for 6 party talks was to keep the SKs from offering more $500 million bribes for Roh to be seen on camera with Kimmie and make China lose face from supplying Kimmie more than what the 6 parties mutually agree upon.

Now you have reality of Kimmie keeping the nukes already made and getting freely millions of barrels of oil, feeding his army, and money laundering facilities reopened. The US, SK, and Japan will carry the burden on keeping Kim and his murderous cohorts waist deep in Hennessey's and prostitutes, with the added benefit of an half the SK Cabinet blown up every now and then. Do you really think that's a good deal?

Posted by ed 2007-02-13 09:51|| 2007-02-13 09:51|| Front Page Top

#15 They blackmailed us again. They get more aid and heating oil for saying they might quit, eventually.

Goddamn fucking bureaucrats. They are gonna be the death of this country.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-02-13 09:52|| 2007-02-13 09:52|| Front Page Top

#16 I suspect this is a pretty good deal for the US. NKOR may be alot weaker than many of you guys beleave.

The fact that 120 Koreans escaped from jail is a shattering event for a totalitarian regime.

I suspect are watching the last days of the Kimmie regime.

Al

Posted by Frozen Al 2007-02-13 10:09|| 2007-02-13 10:09|| Front Page Top

#17 "Now you have reality of Kimmie keeping the nukes already made "

that wasnt my understanding of the deal.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-13 10:28|| 2007-02-13 10:28|| Front Page Top

#18 If that is the case, Al, it should be extradited by more sanctions and the psyops to the people of North Korea. Not by dragging out the inevitable with more aid. I guess Washington likes watching little peasant Norks starve.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-02-13 10:29|| 2007-02-13 10:29|| Front Page Top

#19 "Stall for time and increase the pain until collapse."

NKor however was aware of that, and had an incentive to give up its nukes to avoid the pain and the collapse. And get at least as much as had been offered before.

Dont forget, nukes or no nukes, Nkor still has all those artillery pieces aimed at Seoul, and we have a huge piece of our military in the Indian Ocean aimed at Iran (beyond the part thats on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan) They have leverage, and ours is limited.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-13 10:31|| 2007-02-13 10:31|| Front Page Top

#20 I saw a Charlie Brown parody that applies here, Lucy held the football, Charlie Brown came running up and kicker Lucy out of the panel, So If Nokor snatches the ball away again, kick the shit out of them.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2007-02-13 10:32|| 2007-02-13 10:32|| Front Page Top

#21 Kicked, Dammit.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2007-02-13 10:36|| 2007-02-13 10:36|| Front Page Top

#22 Don't forget Liberalhawk, the ROKs are very, very good right now. If the NORKs wanted to try anything silly, our air force would hurt them and the ROKs would break them. I'm not too worried about most of our light military forces being tied up. Now if China wanted to throw in, then things would get messy.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-02-13 10:45|| 2007-02-13 10:45|| Front Page Top

#23 Following are key points of an agreement reached Tuesday on steps for North Korea to end its nuclear weapons development:
Within 60 days, the North must shut down and seal its main nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, north of the capital Pyongyang. International inspectors should be allowed to verify the process. For the initial steps, North Korea will get energy, food and other aid worth 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil.

The United States will begin bilateral talks with North Korea to normalize their relations and will begin the processes of removing North Korea from its designation as a terror-sponsoring state and also ending U.S. trade sanctions. No deadline was set.

Japan will begin bilateral talks with North Korea to normalize their relations.

After 60 days, foreign ministers of all the countries will meet to confirm the implementation of the agreement and talk about security cooperation in northeast Asia. Some countries will hold a separate forum on negotiations for a permanent peace settlement to replace the 1953 cease-fire that ended the Korean War.

The North must provide a complete list of its nuclear programs and disable all existing nuclear facilities. In return, the North will get aid in corresponding steps worth 950,000 tons of heavy fuel oil details of which will be addressed in later working group discussions.

Five working groups will be created: denuclearization, U.S.-North Korea relations, Japan-North Korea relations, economic cooperation and on a peace and security mechanism in northeast Asia.

The six-nation talks will meet again March 19.

No mention of giving up the nuclear weapons at all. Only disabling their plutonium making reactors. Means Kimmie has confidence in the uranium enrichment centrifuges from Pakistan and Iran (trade for ballistic missiles, much easier to hide than nuclear reactors, powered by South Korean electricity).

Posted by ed 2007-02-13 10:59|| 2007-02-13 10:59|| Front Page Top

#24 Trust but verify. This from Tigerhawk --

First, a quote:
This is the Libya model, said one senior administration official, referring to Libyas decision in late 2003 to turn over all of the equipment it had purchased from the secret nuclear network run by the Pakistani scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, to produce bomb fuel. In that agreement, both the Libyans and the United States executed a series of steps, in a carefully negotiated order, that rid the country of nuclear technology and ended its isolation.

Then, from Tigerhawk,

This is not a "freeze," such as that negotiated by the unilateralist Clinton administration, which would leave Pyongyang in a position to restart its program with but a single decision. It is, apparently, a verifiable elimination of North Korea's program. And if it is indeed as transparent as the Libya deal, we will learn an awful lot about the extent of Pyongyang's illegal proliferation. It would be useful to know whether the North Koreans have, for example, been helping Iran (the revelation of which would fairly decisively confirm the "axis" part of the "Axis of Evil").

Let's hope he's right. Basically, first, Norks give up something, then they get something. Lucy's football is now placed, waiting for Charlie Brown. And we know Lucy always moves that ball.

Posted by Sherry">Sherry 2007-02-13 11:19|| 2007-02-13 11:19|| Front Page Top

#25 Kimmie miss his Hennesey's and lezbo porn flicks?

Posted by tu3031 2007-02-13 11:27|| 2007-02-13 11:27|| Front Page Top

#26 Forget the Libya model. Apparently, that was the direction over the weekend, but it looks like this deal is 1994 all over again: We make energy aid and other concessions to them in exchange for their mere promise to take initial steps toward denuclearization.
Andy McCarthy at The Corner

Posted by Sherry">Sherry 2007-02-13 12:36|| 2007-02-13 12:36|| Front Page Top

#27 this is preliminary. Most of what Nork wants it doesnt get yet, and presumably getting the rest will depend on giving up all nukes. And this also means giving up BOTH plutonium and uranium programs, so its better than what Clinton got. Also China is implicated in it, and will have major pressure to come through if NORK cheats which would also make it better than Clintons deal.

Look, guys, I have every reason to want to say that Bush did no better than Clinton did, and I suspect Dems will be saying that very soon, if they arent already. But I dont think that position will stand.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-13 12:47|| 2007-02-13 12:47|| Front Page Top

#28 We'll know in time what is really going on there.

Posted by wxjames 2007-02-13 13:12|| 2007-02-13 13:12|| Front Page Top

#29 the closure of Yongbyon would be very very big, both for its potential to supply plutonium for bombs but also it is a major blow to the NKor 'prestige' game.

nothing like this happened in Libya;
nothing like this happened in 1994

Certainly it is possible that NKor has some enriched uranium somewhere but the effort to keep that stuff hidden is expensive and the longer it is hidden the more difficult it is to use the stuff to make a nuclear bomb (and remember, NKor mostly hosed their first test on this)

Posted by mhw 2007-02-13 13:39|| 2007-02-13 13:39|| Front Page Top

#30 Seal Pyongyang? How long did it take them to unseal it last time? Five seconds? That facility ought to be destroyed.

Their tunnel system and all other secret facilities ought to be accessible. No more plausible deniability.

All countries involved give permission to nuke or at least drop truly meaningful sanctions on them if the NorKs break the agreement? What level of proof is necessary? Do we get total and immediate access to all sites to look for contraband?

I don't think we need access to secret documents, just the physical location to look for centrifuges and traces of radioactivity, etc. I doubt that they have any secrets worth knowing except who's who in the black market nuke world, etc.

Posted by gorb 2007-02-13 14:59|| 2007-02-13 14:59|| Front Page Top

#31 If this is real it means the Chinese finally stepped up and put a gun to Kimmie's head.

Posted by rjschwarz 2007-02-13 15:52|| 2007-02-13 15:52|| Front Page Top

#32 This deal has phases.

A bit of oil for a bit of disarming. A bigger bit of oil for more disarming.

Each phase will probably have glitches. Any Chinese doublecross should be perceivable during the de-glitching of each phase.

Posted by mhw 2007-02-13 17:11|| 2007-02-13 17:11|| Front Page Top

#33 Funny, the Norks don't use their arms

Posted by Captain America 2007-02-13 18:26|| 2007-02-13 18:26|| Front Page Top

#34 Actually, considering the naked self-interests of the elites in both China and South Korea, this deal is probably the best the West could get. The Chinese do NOT want a capitalistic unified Korea sitting on their border - it is way too porous and information and money leaks across {think of the US/Mexican border}. Also, the Chinese have been talking up the fact that North Korea was once part of the Chinese Empire, like they did about Tibet prior to invading and absorbing it. What the Chinese do NOT want is a collapsing North Korea, sending a couple of million starving refugees across the border, especially since many of those refugees would be army and police units with all of their weapons in hand.
The South Koreans may talk a good game about reunification but they really do NOT want to be stuck rebuilding a North Korea that makes East Germany immediately after WWII look attractive. The SoKors have been able to have their cake and eat it too for the past two decades : they keep spouting off about reunification, and they had Uncle Sugar's 37000 troops on their border, protecting them. Now the US is moving the troops much further south and the NorKors are spiraling down fast enough to scare both the Chinese and the SoKors.
If it is a Libya East deal, then we will learn more about the international nuclear arms trade, and get a ton of insights into Terhran's program, including sites that we don't know about yet. Remember, the Libya deal gave us the actual names of the proliferators, their companies, bank accounts used, and contacts in other countries looking to build nukes.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2007-02-13 18:30|| 2007-02-13 18:30|| Front Page Top

#35 S-Wolf from your mouth to God's ears.

We could use a break for once.

Posted by jds 2007-02-13 19:48|| 2007-02-13 19:48|| Front Page Top

#36 The NORKORS will reportedly get first only a minor portion of heavy oil - to get the remiander they must VERIFIABLY declare any and all nuclear programs both energy + weapons-related, etc. WORLDNEWS > let the Spin begin > North Korea is reporting in local Norkie medias that the above stated first iinstallment is only a MINOR TEMPORARY SUSPENSION in its nuclear agenda/ambitions.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-02-13 21:52|| 2007-02-13 21:52|| Front Page Top

#37 From the Mainichi Daily News:

Japan will not provide energy aid to North Korea under the six-nation nuclear disarmament accord struck in Beijing unless progress is made in resolving the fate of Japanese citizens abducted decades ago, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tuesday. But Tokyo will still support the agreed-to framework, which promises North Korea energy supplies in exchange for giving up its nuclear ambitions. Japan's contribution will come through helping assess the communist nation's energy needs.

Posted by trailing wife 2007-02-13 22:33|| 2007-02-13 22:33|| Front Page Top

23:43 Mike
23:38 Frank G
23:36 Frank G
23:28 buwaya
23:19 Robjack
22:50 eLarson
22:49 Procopius2k
22:39 Procopius2k
22:36 Angenter Crolugum3645
22:35 JosephMendiola
22:33 trailing wife
22:32 3dc
22:31 Zhang Fei
22:28 JosephMendiola
22:26 Remoteman
22:16 JosephMendiola
22:16 SwissTex
22:14 Raj
22:10 JosephMendiola
22:08 USN, ret.
22:05 USN, ret.
22:04 SwissTex
22:02 JosephMendiola
22:01 doc