Article

2007-02-12 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

First nighttime Arrow missile defense test successful

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Posted by Fred 2007-02-12 00:00|| || Front Page|| [8 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Successful missile tests; unexplained earthquake under the Dead Sea (area close to Dimona)!! Hmmmm!

Posted by smn 2007-02-12 02:13|| 2007-02-12 02:13|| Front Page Top

#2 I fail to see where night or day makes any difference to a missle.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2007-02-12 10:10|| 2007-02-12 10:10|| Front Page Top

#3 You can have all the Arrows that you want, but in an exchange, Iran can have hundreds of missiles firing, many of them decoys. Only one nuke needs to get through to ruin Israel as a habitable place. Israel, on the other hand, must stop every one.

Missile defense, though necessary for Israel, is not sufficient to protect against the Iranian threat. So what is the strategy, Mr. Olmert? Better not be in the style of the half-executed plan against Hizb'Allah in Lebanon.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2007-02-12 10:54|| 2007-02-12 10:54|| Front Page Top

#4 The only solution is to make it very clear to Iranians that if even a bird come from Persia there is no more Mecca or Medina. Plus of course no Quom.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2007-02-12 11:17|| 2007-02-12 11:17|| Front Page Top

#5 "You can have all the Arrows that you want, but in an exchange, Iran can have hundreds of missiles firing, many of them decoys. Only one nuke needs to get through to ruin Israel as a habitable place. Israel, on the other hand, must stop every one."

OTOH, if youre Iran, and you have say two nukes, and you fire them both plus say 30 decoys, and the two real nukes get hit, youve done diddly squat to Israel, and you may very well see some really bad consequences to Iran. MIGHT make you think twice.

An ideal strategy? No, but given the problems with all the others, worth pursuing.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-12 13:29|| 2007-02-12 13:29|| Front Page Top

#6 OTOH, if youre Iran, and you have say two nukes, and you fire them both plus say 30 decoys, and the two real nukes get hit

Do you know how many Arrows you need to fire to assure 90% success, or the "liberal" part in LiberalHawk stands for education?

Posted by gromgoru 2007-02-12 13:34|| 2007-02-12 13:34|| Front Page Top

#7 AP, exactly what you expect Olmert to do? The only sure way is to wack Iran now. But that would make Israel target for the rest of the World.

Posted by gromgoru 2007-02-12 13:36|| 2007-02-12 13:36|| Front Page Top

#8 AP, exactly what you expect Olmert to do? The only sure way is to wack Iran now. But that would make Israel target for the rest of the World.

Posted by gromgoru 2007-02-12 13:37|| 2007-02-12 13:37|| Front Page Top

#9 "Do you know how many Arrows you need to fire to assure 90% success"

No, I dont, and await eagerly posts by the technically more knowledgeable. OTOH I dont know you need 90% success to make Iran uncertain as to the "success" of their attack. If they have two genuine bombs, and a few dozen decoys, and you get 50% hits, theres a non-zero probability youve killed both of the genuine bombs.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-12 13:39|| 2007-02-12 13:39|| Front Page Top

#10 32, at least, LH. So now, if Iran has 2 nukes and 3000 decoys, how many Arrows do you need?

Posted by gromgoru 2007-02-12 13:45|| 2007-02-12 13:45|| Front Page Top

#11 Iran has 3000 shihab missiles?

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-12 14:01|| 2007-02-12 14:01|| Front Page Top

#12 I fail to see where night or day makes any difference to a missle.

Well, some of them have pale skin and sunburn easily in the harsh glare of day. On a more serious note, you wouldn't expect it to matter to radar, but if they are also using some sort of electro-optical sensor, I can see (heh) it making a difference.

Posted by SteveS 2007-02-12 16:46|| 2007-02-12 16:46|| Front Page Top

#13 Arrow has both radar and infrared seekers. Works best if the Iranians don't launch at 10AM.

Posted by ed 2007-02-12 17:06|| 2007-02-12 17:06|| Front Page Top

#14 My point is that Olmert, who is leader of the Israeli government, is facing a situation, which, when dragging out, will put the odds more against Israel. If Israel waits for Iran to build up and shoot first, then activate the defense system, then Israel is playing the odds very close, betting the farm, so to speak.

With regard to the political situation and the advisability of holding off an attack against the MMs of Iran, that's Israel's call. It still does not change the very real catastrophic consequences of an Iranian missile attack.

We can sit here in the relative comfort of our NA continent, and to some extent Europe. We can play these "what-if" games smugly from the comfort of our homes, but Israel is playing for keeps. One well placed hit, the right meteorological conditions, and Israel is uninhabitable.

Israel is the canary in the coal mine.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2007-02-12 22:12|| 2007-02-12 22:12|| Front Page Top

#15 AP, I wouldn't try to guess that Olmert thinks. But I can imagine that advice he gets.
The probability that MM use nukes on Israel is less than unity. The probability that Israel, and most Diaspora Jews, will be destroyed by the "indignant humanity" if we pre-empt Iran is unity.

Posted by gromgoru 2007-02-12 23:59|| 2007-02-12 23:59|| Front Page Top

09:36 Aris Katsaris
23:59 gromgoru
23:57 whatadeal
23:40 ex-lib
23:35 smn
23:33 ex-lib
23:27 ex-lib
23:23 ex-lib
23:22 Eric Jablow
23:19 Eric Jablow
23:17 Thereth Slump3787
23:11 Anonymoose
23:11 Eric Jablow
22:12 JosephMendiola
22:12 Alaska Paul
22:08 Frank G
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21:59 Frank G
21:56 Broadhead6
21:53 Omolurt Elmeaper6990
21:51 Swamp Blondie
21:45 Alaska Paul
21:43 gromgoru
21:32 RD